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The 2024 NCAA Tournament will officially begin later this week.
As fans are filling out their brackets and making their bets, here’s a question worth considering: Which coaches have historically overachieved during the NCAA Tournament?
Thanks to BartTorvik’s PASE metric (performance against seed expectations), there are clear answers to that question. That metric shows the number of wins a coach has earned above (or below) seed expectations in a given timeframe.
Here are the 3 active coaches in this year’s Big Dance who have overachieved the most in the NCAA Tournament according to PASE since 2000:
Tom Izzo, Michigan State
- Games coached: 70
- Overall record: 49-21
- PASE: 15.4
Tom Izzo has a well-earned reputation as this era’s best coach during March, and this metric more than backs that up. Izzo is far-and-away the overall leader in this stat entering this season. Since 2000, he’s made the second weekend of the Tournament a staggering 6 times from the 5-seed line or worse. Overall, he has 7 Final Four appearances since 2000.
Michigan State is a No. 9 seed in this year’s tournament and will face Mississippi State on Thursday. Izzo’s bunch is favored by 1 point against the Bulldogs, per DraftKings. Also at DraftKings, the Spartans are currently +2500 to make the Final Four and +350 to make the Sweet 16.
States: KS, KY, MA, MI, NY, NJ, PA, CT, AZ, CO, IL, IN, IA, MD, NH, TN, VA, WV
John Calipari, Kentucky
- Games coached: 62
- Overall record: 46-16
- PASE: 10.1
Even with Kentucky’s recent loss to Saint Peter’s as a No. 2 seed, John Calipari grades out extremely well in this metric. In fact, Calipari is ranked No. 1 overall in this metric since 2010 when he arrived in Lexington. Since his first season at UK, Calipari has led the program to 4 Final Four appearances and 1 national championship.
Kentucky is a No. 3 seed in this year’s tournament and once again has Final Four aspirations. The Wildcats are currently +700 to make the Final Four and -140 to make the Sweet 16, according to the latest odds from Bet365.
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Mark Few, Gonzaga
- Games coached: 64
- Overall record: 41-23
- PASE: 3.3
Mark Few is 21st overall on the list of highest-achieving coaches, but all of the names above him have either left college coaching (Roy Williams and Billy Donovan, for example), didn’t make the tournament this year (Chris Beard, Rick Pitino) or don’t have a big enough sample size (Hubert Davis). But that shouldn’t take too much away from Few’s NCAA Tournament record, which is genuinely impressive. Gonzaga has made every NCAA Tournament since 2000 and has played for 2 national championships in that span.
Gonzaga is a No. 5 seed in this year’s tournament and will face Will Wade’s McNeese State in the first round. The Bulldogs are favored by 6 points against McNeese State and are -270 on the money line, according to Bet365. That same book has Gonzaga at +160 to reach the Final Four.
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Other notes
Hubert Davis ranks 3rd amongst all coaches involved in the 2024 NCAA Tournament and 15th overall with a PASE of 4.3. Davis was not included in this list because he has only coached in 6 total NCAA Tournament games — and they all took place during the 2022 tournament when Carolina reached the national final as a No. 8 seed.
Although the above list dates back to the 2000 NCAA Tournament, it doesn’t change much if you only include the last decade of results. Over the last 10 NCAA Tournaments, these are the highest-ranked coaches in PASE who are also involved in this year’s Big Dance: Dana Altman (6.3 PASE), Izzo (4.8), Davis (4.3), Calipari (4.2) and Few (3.5).
The biggest under-achieving coaches in this year’s field since 2000 are Tony Bennett (-7.7 PASE), Jamie Dixon (-6.1), Matt Painter (-4.6), Rick Barnes (-4.4) and Shaka Smart (-3.8).
Illinois is heading back to the NCAA Tournament, punching an automatic ticket via the B1G Tournament title with Sunday’s win over Wisconsin.
As a result, Illinois will head to the East Region as a 3-seed in what could be the toughest path to the Final Four. The East also includes No. 1 overall seed UConn to go with 2-seed Iowa State and 4-seed Auburn.
In reality, the Illini are a pretty good value play for interested parties. ESPN Bet has Illinois at +750 to win the East Region while UConn leads the way at +105. Fans can also track the latest odds via Tradition’s Ohio betting apps.
As for the opening round, Illinois heads into a matchup against 14-seed Morehead State as a 12.5-point favorite. The Illini have a chance to roll into the second round, but now is not the time of year to take anything for granted.
Here are the key things to know for Illinois’ matchup:
Morehead State’s record vs. power conferences
Morehead State did its best in scheduling this season, hitting the road in nonconference play to face Alabama, Purdue, Penn State and Indiana. The Eagles went 0-4 in those games and were outscored 335-to-249.
Morehead state did nearly beat Indiana and held a double-digit lead at halftime of that game, but the Hoosiers stormed back for a one-point win.
Granted, all those games happened prior to January, and things look differently in March. It’s possible Morehead State leans on those experiences in preparation to face Illinois, but it’s also possible the Eagles just can’t hang against tougher competition.
Dynamic 3-point shooting team
One strength for Morehead State — and a great equalizer in March — is 3-point shooting with the Eagles shooting 36% from deep and making 318 3-pointers during the season. That number ranks 16th in the country.
Individually, Kalil Thomas leads Morehead State with 3.1 3-pointers per game while shooting 43.5% from range. That percentage is tied for 8th-best in the country. Jordan Lathon is also a sharpshooter at 38% from deep and averages 15.4 points per game.
Electric scoring battle potential
Terrence Shannon Jr. enters this game as the nation’s 3rd-leading scorer at 23 points per game, and he’ll face a similarly dynamic scorer for the Eagles. Riley Minix is a versatile 6-foot-7 forward who also averages 20 points per game (20.8) and can fill up the stat sheet in a number of ways.
Minix is shooting 65% from inside the arc but also averages 1.6 3-pointers per game in shooting 34% from deep. He also leads the Eagles with 9.8 rebounds and rounds out his performance with 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals and a block per game. Minix produced 19 double-doubles this season and scored 30+ 3 times.
If Morehead State has any hopes for an upset, Minix will need to be electric with the ball in his hands, and it could set up an epic duel involving Shannon on the big stage.
Greg Sankey continues to call for a review of the NCAA Tournament and insists it can be a healthy dialogue. However, Sankey will be best served to heed the cautionary reaction from across the country.
During a conversation with ESPN’s Pete Thamel, Sankey (described as the most notable “expansion bull” by Thamel) said that “nothing remains static” in Division I. He pointed to deep runs in the NCAA Tournament from lower seeded teams out of power conferences as a need to “think about the dynamics” around the NCAA Tournament.
“That just tells you that the bandwidth inside the top 50 is highly competitive,” Sankey said. “We are giving away highly competitive opportunities for automatic qualifiers [from smaller leagues], and I think that pressure is going to rise as we have more competitive basketball leagues at the top end because of expansion.”
Those comments set off a firestorm of reaction with many hammering Sankey for his viewpoint. In a more recent interview with Kyle Tucker of The Athletic, Sankey said it was “an overread” to infer that he wants an NCAA Tournament comprised of only power conferences.
However, Sankey did reiterate a need to “continue to adapt” due to the increasing volume of Division I teams (362 teams this season). Conducting a review of the NCAA Tournament and potential expansion should be “a healthy conversation” according to Sankey.
He went on to say there’s a desire to respect the great Cinderella stories of March Madness while admitting there should be no time pressure or expectation among teams within that review.
For what it’s worth, Florida AD Scott Stricklin was quoted in Thamel’s story as saying the current NCAA Tournament is “too much of a public trust for us to blow the thing up.” He also envisioned a tournament that is still inclusive, even if there is a new model for college sports down the road.
RELATED: Gear up for March Madness and your bracket with the use of Tradition’s Ohio online sportsbooks links and apps!
Proper caution is needed
Sankey’s initial comments to ESPN are one thing, though he did his best to clarify those remarks with The Athletic. Still, the rest of the country is wary, and it’s not hard to see why.
Under his leadership, the SEC set off a firestorm of change by expanding with Texas and Oklahoma. Now, as part of a healthy conversation or not, Sankey is telling everyone “nothing remains static” as it pertains to the NCAA Tournament.
That type of language will rightly unnerve many fans and leadership among smaller institutions, especially from someone who has shown an ability to upset the status quo in favor of the SEC. That’s Sankey’s job, but it doesn’t mean it’s the right thing to do for college basketball.
As currently constructed, it is hard to find a critic of the makeup of the tournament. Well, not counting Sankey.
Is 68 teams the ideal number for the tournament? That’s a subjective question, but it’s widely recognized that the NCAA Tournament is one of the most interesting sporting events in the country, and that includes the College Football Playoff. And no matter how you slice it, the Cinderella stories are a main point of the intrigue.
So yes, a review of the NCAA Tournament can be conducted, but there are some commonsense aspects of March Madness that must be preserved no matter what. Just one glimpse around social media illustrates the reaction Sankey’s comments spurred, and they serve as the perfect illustration to proceed with caution when it comes to tinkering with the bracket.
Here’s a snapshot of the reactions:
Greg Sankey wants to expand the NCAA tourney bc we’re leaving out “competitive” P4 schools.
His own conference’s recent tourney performance debunks that argument. If anything, there should be more mid-majors. https://t.co/8KKznEnOm1
— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) March 18, 2024
Greg Sankey is letting the mask slip off a little more. His quote from @PeteThamel’s well done story today on the future of the NCAA Tournament, tells you exactly what he wants to do with the tournament. He will destroy college athletics if they let him.https://t.co/BmiNRQ4UxO pic.twitter.com/xpDSe0G8Eq
— Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) March 14, 2024
Everyone reading Greg Sankey’s thoughts on the NCAA Tournament pic.twitter.com/PfcGtMxAQ3 https://t.co/P5zCUQAYM1
— Pregame Empire (@PregameEmpire) March 14, 2024
Hard to overemphasize how moronic Greg Sankey has been about the NCAA Tournament, the only event with a 100% approval rating among fans.
Basically: “Hey everyone loves this thing, let’s screw around with it because the 50th best team in the country isn’t getting Tourney units!” https://t.co/vqFuwLcP86
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) March 14, 2024
Greg Sankey seeing 6 Mountain West teams make the NCAA tournament pic.twitter.com/Hk2WhTlNnO
— Cole Adams (@coleadamss) March 17, 2024
Greg Sankey had to have hated this and probably told folks UNI shouldn’t have even been in the tourney https://t.co/bzKXaNmwv2
— Alex Mueller (@AlexMueller23) March 18, 2024
this is what greg sankey wants to kill https://t.co/8bUngdy1vT
— Matt Brown (@MattBrownEP) March 17, 2024
I speak for everyone when I say, Greg Sankey is the literal devil in sports https://t.co/K9Z7kezbdk
— Digital DAM 🦫 (@TheDigitalDam) March 16, 2024
Greg Sankey really is the Thanos of college sports. pic.twitter.com/KLNCnW7aIO
— College Sports Only (@CollegeSportsO) March 15, 2024
For those of you who constantly say Greg Sankey should be in charge of eveyrthing, his takes on basketball continue to show why he shouldn't. https://t.co/pr484uUQuw
— Jason Horowitz (@HorowitzJason) March 16, 2024
But, people are angry that FDU stole a bid from 18-14 Missouri. Right, @GregSankey ?? https://t.co/XpP9wqUMsA
— Rob Knight (@RobKnight35) March 17, 2024
what is SEC commissioner Greg Sankey thinking when he talks about taking away auto bids from mid-, low majors. nothing like a money grab for power conferences looking to form a cartel.
— Dick Weiss (@HoopsWeiss) March 14, 2024
I know what you’re thinking. You’re filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket and you don’t want guidance so much as you want to see how much I agree with you. I get it. I’m in your shoes, too.
The people who agree with me are geniuses and the people who don’t are morons. Obviously.
But my goal today is not to get you to agree with me, though I have won my family and friends bracket pool 2 out of the past 3 years, so put some respect on my name. My goal is to inform and break down the bracket to give you 6-7 minutes away from not working/taking care of your kid(s)/doing dishes/etc.
Fair enough? Alright. Here’s some stuff to know before I share my bracket with you, specific to picking a national champ.
The real KenPom stat that should matter when picking a national champ
There’s a lot of discourse about the KenPom metrics and how the national champions rank in offensive and defensive efficiency. The discourse lies in whether those metrics should be tied back to pre-NCAA Tournament stats or after a 6-game run that will inevitably improve a team’s adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency.
You know what I think is more relevant? Since 1998, 22 of the 25 national champs entered the NCAA Tournament ranked in the top 6 overall in KenPom (H/T Will Warren). The exceptions were 2003 Syracuse, 2011 UConn and 2014 UConn.
So by that logic, let’s keep it simple and say that the national champ is most likely a top-6 team in KenPom right now:
- UConn
- Houston
- Purdue
- Auburn
- Iowa State
- Arizona
That’s probably a good place to start when picking a title team.
The conference tournament stat
It’s pretty simple. A national champion has never been eliminated in the opening game of its conference tournament. Here are the top 4 seeds who lost their opening-round game:
- Creighton
- Tennessee
- Kentucky
- Alabama
- Kansas
- Duke
As much as we talk about the silver lining of an early conference championship exit being the whole “fresh legs” theory, that’s a bit more of a troubling sign.
The national championship breakdown
Last year, UConn broke the mold a bit by being a 4-seed and rolling through the NCAA Tournament. The 21st century suggests that UConn is the only team that seems to do that as a non-top 3 seed:
- No. 1: 2022 Kansas, 2021 Baylor, 2019 Virginia, 2018 Villanova, 2017 UNC, 2015 Duke, 2013 Louisville, 2012 Kentucky, 2010 Duke, 2009 UNC, 2008 Kansas, 2007 Florida, 2005 UNC, 2002 Maryland, 2001 Duke, 2000 Michigan State
- No. 2: 2016 Villanova, 2004 UConn
- No. 3: 2011 UConn, 2006 Florida, 2003 Syracuse
- No. 4: 2023 UConn
- No. 5: nobody
- No. 6: nobody
- No. 7: 2014 UConn
I’d argue that last year’s UConn squad was underseeded having entered the field ranked No. 4 in KenPom, but still. The point remains. Only 7 non-1 seeds have who won a title in the 21st century, and 5 of them were top-3 seeds. There are places where picking upsets is a necessary evil. Having a 5-seed as your title winner isn’t one of them.
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East
Winner — UConn
Team that can blow up my bracket — Auburn
There’s a world in which UConn becomes the first team to repeat as national champs since 2006-07 Florida. The top-seeded Huskies have somehow been more consistent than they were last year, which is why they’re the favorites to cut down the nets at +450 on DraftKings. But is there also a world in which a ticked-off Auburn squad shows up in the Sweet 16 and plays with its hair on fire? Absolutely. The Tigers defend as well as any team UConn faced all year. As we were reminded in Nashville, there’s a reason Bruce Pearl’s squad won 26 games by double-digits this season.
Iowa State is a trendy pick to win it all coming off the Big 12 title, but I have the Cyclones getting upset by in-state Drake in the Round of 32. That potential matchup in Omaha will be fantastic. Drake enters the field having won 10 of its past 11, including a bubble-bursting takedown of Robbie Avila and Indiana State in the Missouri Valley Conference championship. Drake star Tucker DeVries and his dad, Drake coach and longtime Creighton assistant Darian DeVries are returning home to Omaha. I see that becoming one of the best stories of opening weekend.
West
Winner — Arizona
Team that can blow up my bracket — Long Beach State
Look. Arizona lost to Princeton in the Round of 64 last year. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that lightning strikes twice and the Wildcats again fall to a 15-seed. After all, Long Beach State is on borrowed time more than any team in the entire tournament. Long Beach State coach Dan Monson was fired on Monday of conference tournament week, but stayed with the team … only to rattle off 3 consecutive victories en route to the Big West Conference title. LBSU is dancing for the first time since 2012. His squad already won at Michigan and at USC earlier this year, so playing a big-name school won’t be intimidating.
All eyes are on that potential Caleb Love-UNC reunion in the Elite 8, but I nearly picked Mississippi State to knock off the Tar Heels. It could be shades of 2018 when UNC ran into a tough, physical Texas A&M squad and got bounced in the Round of 32. Mississippi State has a ton of similarities to that group. Go ask Tennessee about that. The Vols fell to the Bulldogs in both matchups this year. The possibility of an early UNC exit was what prevented me from mapping out their path to the Final Four and instead picking the Wildcats to move on.
South
Winner — Houston
Team that can blow up my bracket — Duke
For the longest time, I’d consider myself a Duke apologist in March. I’d pencil the Blue Devils in for a Final Four run without thinking twice. No more. One Final Four appearance in the past 7 NCAA Tournaments will do that to a guy. That aforementioned early ACC Tournament exit scares me, even if NC State was just a team that had an unthinkable week. But at the same time, doesn’t that set up perfectly for Duke to make a run? If the Blue Devils can avoid the Round of 64 upset I predicted against Vermont and navigate their way to the Sweet 16, I worry about how comfortable they are playing at that slow, half-court pace against the Cougars.
The matchup that could be one of the best of the tournament is if we get Kentucky-Marquette in the Sweet 16. With how well the Wildcats played when healthy, one would think they’ll be a popular pick to reach the Final Four. The looming issue, of course, is that John Calipari hasn’t made it past the opening weekend since 2019. Then again, Shaka Smart has won just 1 NCAA Tournament game since 2013 at VCU. A ton could be on the line if those squads meet in a Region semifinal.
Midwest
Winner — Creighton
Team that can blow up my bracket — Oregon
Yes, we’ve got a potential Dana Altman-Creighton reunion in the Round of 32. That’ll only happen if the Ducks can get past a South Carolina squad that had a whale of a season after being picked to finish last in the SEC. The Pac-12 champs could be playing with house money now that they’re finally healthy. Altman doesn’t get enough credit for reaching the Sweet 16 an impressive 5 times in the past 10 NCAA Tournaments. But Creighton can play with anyone. The Bluejays handed UConn their most lopsided loss of the season, which was the defending champs’ only defeat since the calendar turned to 2024. I think that bodes well to survive Oregon and halt Tennessee’s never-ending pursuit of a Final Four berth.
I could’ve easily picked Kansas as the team that could blow up my bracket. I initially had the banged-up Jayhawks losing in the Round of 64 to Samford. Then I pictured Hunter Dickinson dropping 25 and 15 in a 20-point win against Samford and feeling dumb for perhaps overreacting to his shoulder injury. So naturally, I did a 180 and picked Kansas to avoid an opening weekend upset and reach the Elite 8. That would mean sending Matt Painter and Purdue packing short of the Final Four yet again.
The Boilers are currently +700 to win the NCAA Tournament, per FanDuel.
Dickinson, the All-American Michigan transfer, has as much experience as anyone in America playing against Zach Edey. Look at Edey’s games when matched up against Dickinson:
- 2021 — 4 points, 8 rebounds in 14 minutes
- 2022 — 13 points, 9 rebounds in 17 minutes
- 2022 — 10 points, 6 rebounds in 17 minutes
- 2023 — 19 pounds, 9 rebounds in 34 minutes
Mind you, this is someone with 37 games of 20 points and 10 rebounds in the past 2 seasons. Another Dickinson-Edey matchup would be fitting for 2 of the sport’s biggest household names.
Final Four
Semifinals — UConn over Arizona, Houston over Creighton
National Championship — Houston over UConn
Yeah, I went a bit chalky here. Sorry, but the vibe I’ve gotten all year is that there are 2-to-3 truly elite teams and then a Tier 2 that’s far and wide. Houston and UConn are among those 2-to-3 teams. A motivated Arizona squad enters the Final Four with all the local support imaginable playing in Phoenix, but ultimately it can’t keep pace with a team as unselfish as Danny Hurley’s squad. Houston, meanwhile, does what it’s been doing all year: Hound opposing backcourts and limit teams to 1 contested shot per possession. That fuels an ugly, but comfortable win against Creighton to prevent a potential all-Big East national championship.
Is UConn more than capable of repeating? No doubt. But there’s a reason that path is extremely narrow. Even if UConn gets through an East Region that has 3 other power conference tournament champs in it, a relentless, physical team like Houston could await in the title game. Finally, Houston can break through. Credit a year of playing in the deep Big 12 for preparing Houston for the grind that awaits.
Kelvin Sampson, the former Indiana coach, can finally be removed from the list of “best coaches to never win a title.”
A year ago, the Big Ten advanced only 1 team into the NCAA Tournament’s 2nd weekend.
If the league is to at least double that — or more — then it’s going to take work, because the Selection Committee did the B1G few favors with its bracket reveal Sunday evening, particularly with 3 of the conference’s 6 entrants lining up in a dreaded 8/9 game — meaning they’re on a collision course with a No. 1 seed in the 2nd round. Perhaps this season, however, No. 1 seed Purdue (the tourney’s 3rd overall seed) can carry the way, followed along by a couple surging teams in Illinois and Wisconsin.
Purdue has the best odds among Big Ten schools to win the national title. DraftKings has the Boilermakers priced at +650. Ohio residents can get similar action at some of our best Ohio betting apps.
FanDuel also is offering odds to win each region.
Let’s glance at key takeaways from each of the Big Ten’s 6 teams that are dancing:
Purdue (1 seed, Midwest Region)
Maybe Purdue can treat the Midwest Region as the Maui Invitational Part II, because it looks awfully familiar to the impressive field the Boilermakers saw at the tournament in Hawaii in November. The familiar foes? Tennessee, the 2 seed, which Purdue could take for a right to go to its first Final Four since 1980, and Gonzaga, the 5 seed, which the Boilermakers could see in the Sweet 16. No. 4 seed, Kansas, was also a Maui participant, although the Jayhawks then missed a date with Purdue. Maybe a regional semifinal is on the horizon.
Of course, for the Boilermakers, there are always the monsters that lurk under the bed, the double-digit seeds that have knocked Purdue from the tournament in past years. Where are the unknown dangers this season? Perhaps it’s 12-seed McNeese, the Southland Conference winner and 1 of only 4 teams in the tournament with at least 30 wins, which will bring an 11-game winning streak into its 1st-round matchup with the ‘Zags.
But Purdue won’t be taking anyone for granted, certainly not Montana St. or Grambling in the 1st round, after what Fairleigh Dickinson did to Zach Edey and Co. last March.
Illinois (3 seed, East Region)
Illinois is rolling after beating Wisconsin to win the Big Ten Tournament, but this veteran Fighting Illini squad is hungry for more. They’ll have to upend a darling upset pick in Round 1, in Morehead St., a 26-game winner that rolled through the Ohio Valley Conference tourney. It’ll be a matchup of 2 of the top guards in the country in Illinois’ Terrence Shannon Jr., and Morehead’s Riley Minix. Both can score in bunches.
But even with a potentially dangerous lower-seeded opponent in Game 1, the Fighting Illini have to like their draw. Iowa State could stand in the way of a trip to the Elite Eight, and while the Cyclones have been hot of late — they upset Houston on their way to a Big 12 tournament title — they’re softer nonconference schedule might leave them vulnerable.
Wisconsin (5 seed, South Region)
Whatever the Badgers were doing early in the Big Ten season, they recaptured late in the year, as Wisconsin surged to the Big Ten Tournament title game after beating Northwestern and Purdue before falling to Illinois on Sunday. Led by AJ Storr, Wisconsin is scoring more, and with more efficiency, than in past years, perhaps increasing its NCAA ceiling. But being a 5 seed is always a dangerous place as a Power 5, because frequently it is facing a mid-major coming off a fantastic season — and is on track to face a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16.
The dangerous mid-major this year is James Madison. The Dukes, led by Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Terrence Edwards Jr., have the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 games. It could be a test for the improved Badgers’ offense, because Wisconsin will take on a JMU team that averages 84.4 points per game, the 9th-best mark in the country.
Nebraska (8 seed, South Region)
Nebraska presents a danger not only to 1st-round opponent Texas A&M — led by new AD Trev Alberts — but potentially to likely 2nd-round opponent Houston too, because the Cornhuskers can get hot and stay hot, like they did in hitting 14 3-pointers in a 16-point win over Purdue earlier this season. Does anyone know how to slow down veteran Nebraska guard Keisei Tominaga if he gets on a heater?
But to get that shooter’s chance against the Cougars, the Cornhuskers will have to get by the Aggies, and that might not be an easy thing to do. First, Nebraska has its own history to overcome: The Huskers are 0-7 all-time in the NCAA Tournament — the only Power 6 team without a win. That, and TAMU is playing well right now, recording 5 consecutive wins before losing to Florida in the SEC Tournament semifinals. That stretch vaulted the Aggies into an at-large berth, after they had lost the 5 previous.
Northwestern (8 seed, East Region)
There might not be a bigger 1st-round contrast in styles than Northwestern and Florida Atlantic. The Wildcats, particularly as beat up as they are, will try to value possessions behind the stellar play of Boo Buie. Meanwhile, the Owls, who had an up-and-down season despite returning a bulk of their lineup from last March’s surprise run to the Final Four, want to run. They average 82.5 points per game, the 16th-highest mark in the country. What wins out?
Many across the country would probably like to see FAU win, setting up a 2nd-round game between it and UConn, 2 of last season’s Final Four participants. But Northwestern, which is in the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons for the first time in school history, thrives when it is doubted. Should be a great game.
Michigan State (9 seed, West Region)
For one of the rare times over the past quarter century, Michigan State was sweating out Selection Sunday, figuring it might be squarely on the bubble. Turns out, things might not have been quite so dire, as the Spartans avoided the First Four play-in games, landing as a solid 9 seed. It marks the 26th consecutive season that Tom Izzo’s bunch as been in the NCAA Tournament, an incredible feat of consistency.
Now in, can MSU get out of the 1st round to make an unexpected run, as it did a year ago when it was the only team from the Big Ten to advance to the Sweet 16? It might be tough. The Spartans, who were the country’s 5th-ranked team in the preseason, never found their footing this season, and now take on a Mississippi State team that beat Tennessee only a couple days ago.
And, of course, the 8/9 winner gets the No. 1 seed (UNC) in the 2nd round. Repeating a Sweet 16 run will be challenging, indeed.
The Big Ten sent 6 teams to the NCAA Tournament — tying the Mountain West for the second most of any league. After a wild conference tournament, Michigan State made it off the bubble and into the 68-team field with some clearance. The 9-seed Spartans are joined by 9-seed Northwestern, 8-seed Nebraska, 5-seed Wisconsin, 3-seed Illinois, and 1-seed Purdue.
The First Four gets rolling on Tuesday. Purdue will have its eye on Dayton, as the winner of Wednesday’s Montana State-Grambling State game will be sent to Indianapolis to face the Boilermakers in the Midwest Region’s 1-16 matchup. Every other B1G program knows its first-round opponent.
With that, point spreads and totals have been set for 5 of the 6 games involving B1G schools. Those odds are below.
(All times Eastern; odds via DraftKings)
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Michigan State (12:15 p.m. Thursday, CBS)
- Spread: Michigan State -1.5
- Total: 128.5
- Moneyline: Michigan State -125, Mississippi State +105
3 Illinois vs. 14 Morehead State (3:10 p.m. Thursday, truTV)
- Spread: Illinois -12.5
- Total: 148
- Moneyline: Illinois -950, Morehead State +625
8 Florida Atlantic vs. 9 Northwestern (12:15 p.m. Friday, CBS)
- Spread: Florida Atlantic -2
- Total: 140.5
- Moneyline: Northwestern +110, FAU -130
8 Nebraska vs. 9 Texas A&M (6:50 p.m. Friday, TNT)
- Spread: Nebraska -2
- Total: 144.5
- Moneyline: Nebraska -130, Texas A&M +110
1 Purdue vs. 16 Montana State/Grambling State (7:25 p.m. Friday, TBS)
- Spread: not available
- Total: not available
- Moneyline: not available
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 James Madison (9:40 p.m. Friday, CBS)
- Spread: Wisconsin -4.5
- Total: 144.5
- Moneyline: Wisconsin -175, James Madison +145
Purdue has the shortest odds among B1G schools to win the national title. DraftKings has the Boilermakers priced at +650. Ohio residents can get similar action at some of our best Ohio betting apps.
FanDuel is also offering odds to win each region.
Those are below.
East Region
- Illinois +800
- Northwestern +4800
South Region
- Wisconsin +1200
- Nebraska +2500
Midwest Region
- Purdue +175
West Region
- Michigan State +1200
States: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY
The 2024 NCAA Tournament is finally here with the full 68-team bracket getting unveiled Sunday evening!
The No. 1 overall seed in the tournament went to UConn with Houston, Purdue and North Carolina also occupying the top line. However, not everyone was left happy with Indiana State headlining some more notable than usual snubs from the final field.
Now, the times and television schedule for the opening rounds of the tournament are set with the B1G sending 6 teams to games across Thursday and Friday. While First Four action officially starts the tournament on Tuesday and Wednesday, Michigan State will get the full Thursday slate going with the first game of the day.
The Spartans punched their ticket with a 9-seed and an at-large bid to face Mississippi State in the West Region. Illinois will follow that game with a midafternoon tipoff against Morehead State.
On Friday, Northwestern will get the action started in a game against FAU while a trio of B1G teams will play a nightcap.
How many B1G teams will be standing on Saturday and Sunday with a shot to reach the Sweet 16? We’ll soon find out with March Madness finally heating up.
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All times ET
Thursday, March 21
- 12:15 pm | (8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Michigan State | CBS
- 3:10 pm | (3) Illinois vs. (14) Morehead State | truTV
Friday, March 22
- 12:15 pm | (8) FAU vs. (9) Northwestern | CBS
- 6:50 pm | (8) Nebraska vs. (9) Texas A&M | TNT
- 7:25 pm | (1) Purdue vs. (16) Montana State/Grambling State | TBS
- 9:40 pm | (5) Wisconsin vs. (12) James Madison | CBS
Trev Alberts will have his hands full in the opening rounds of March Madness after what took place on Selection Sunday.
Alberts left Nebraska on Wednesday to become the Athletic Director at Texas A&M, and it rubbed many Cornhuskers the wrong way. Alberts was a former 1st-round NFL Draft pick out of Nebraska and won the Dick Butkus Award. He had been the Huskers AD since 2021.
The NCAA demonstrated its sick sense of humor by matching up Nebraska with Texas A&M for both the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments. In an attempted show of goodwill, Alberts tweeted about the upcoming matchups, wishing good luck to all 4 coaches.
Well this will be fun… ? Congratulations Coach Hoiberg and Coach Williams!
— Trev Alberts (@TrevAlberts) March 17, 2024
You can’t make this up! Congratulations to Coach Taylor and Coach Williams.
— Trev Alberts (@TrevAlberts) March 18, 2024
The tweet did not go over well with Nebraska by any stretch of the imagination. It sounds like Nebraska fans are still fairly mad at Alberts for leaving.
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The range of tweets that were sent Alberts’ way varied from Keisei Tominaga memes and there was even 1 of the AD stabbing Herbie Husker in the back. Some Texas A&M fans relished in the angry tweets, too.
Both Texas A&M and Nebraska made it to the semifinal of their conference tournaments. Texas A&M knocked off Kentucky before losing to Florida in the SEC Tournament.
It’ll be an 8 vs. 9 matchup that many have dubbed the Trev Alberts Bowl. Tipoff will be Friday in Memphis, Tennessee.
Here are some of the best reactions to the matchup:
On Wednesday, Trev Alberts shockingly left his alma mater Nebraska for Texas A&M.
Just over a week later, the Huskers play the Aggies in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament.
Nebraska opens as a 2.5-pt favorite to win its 1st ever NCAA Tournament game.
MARCH.
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) March 17, 2024
lol Trev Alberts bowl in MBB and WBB between Texas A&M and Nebraska!
— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) March 18, 2024
Aggies vs Nebraska a few days after Trev Alberts takes over at A&M. Don’t tell me the selection committee doesn’t have a sick sense of humor.
— Billy Liucci (@billyliucci) March 17, 2024
TREV ALBERTS REVENGE GAME
— Will Compton (@_willcompton) March 17, 2024
Jaz Shelley is going to have Trev Alberts in hell.
— David Eickholt (@DavidEickholt) March 18, 2024
It will be fitting to get our first NCAA tourney win against you bud. Wish you nothing but the best, just not Friday ??
— Tom in the 4zero2 (@reiber_tom) March 17, 2024
A&M will fire you within 3 years
— Jobin (@BrettTobin) March 17, 2024
I hope we take your name off the building. Traitor.
— Dharma Bum (@NapingSac) March 17, 2024
Kesei is gonna 40 piece you buddy
— Dave Keller (@davekeller72) March 17, 2024
— Jimmy (@jam_eds) March 17, 2024
the boos you will receive in memphis will be of biblical proportions
— sammysinatra (@sammysinatra2) March 17, 2024
This one’s for you @TrevAlberts ? pic.twitter.com/pXhj4M6YZV
— HuskerChronicles (@HuskChronicle) March 17, 2024
Michigan State is indeed going dancing this season, extending its active streak of NCAA Tournament appearances to 26 under head coach Tom Izzo!
After a lot of questions about the Spartans and a potential bubble status, Michigan State was safely into the final field as a 9-seed in the West Region. As a result, they bypass the First Four and will get a Round of 64 matchup against 8-seed Mississippi State from the SEC.
It’s the kind of draw Izzo has made a legacy out of exploiting in March, and he gets another shot to guide the Spartans to the second game of the weekend. Unfortunately, if Michigan State does get past the Bulldogs, a date with 1-seed North Carolina likely awaits in the Round of 32.
For now, it’s all about Mississippi State, and here are 3 things to know about the Bulldogs:
Big man matchup to watch
One of the big names to watch in this matchup is Tolu Smith, a veteran 6-foot-10 big man for Mississippi State. He was the second-leading scorer for the Bulldogs this season while averaging 15.2 points per game to go with 8.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists while shooting 56% from the field.
He’s a true problem in the post and an old-school big man, the type of player Michigan State has struggled against at times this season. Granted, the Spartans faced the best big man in the country in Purdue’s Zach Edey, and Smith is not on Edey’s level. But overall, it’s a position Michigan State has not received a lot of production from this year.
Down the stretch, Michigan State has heavily relied on Carson Cooper and Mady Sissoko alternating minutes while also sprinkling Jaxon Kohler into the rotation. None of those players is a serious offensive threat, but their defense against Smith will be important to watch.
A defensive struggle ahead?
Michigan State has heavily leaned on its defense after giving up just 65.9 points per game (27th in the country), and that’s unlikely to change in this matchup. Mississippi State also gives up less than 70 points per game, and both teams are well-represented in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Spartans are No. 8 in the metric, a particularly impressive number considering the kind of offenses Michigan State faced throughout the season. The Bulldogs are 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency but did not face quite as tough of a schedule.
In this matchup, it’s likely the two sides are gearing up for a grind it out affair, and the opening betting lines reflect that.
ESPN Bet opens with the Spartans as a slim 1.5-point favorite for the showdown and a point total set at 129.5 points for the game. Neither team appears to have the makeup to run away with this one, and the game could turn on a big defensive play late.
Fans can also track the latest odds for the NCAA Tournament with Tradition’s Michigan sports betting links and apps.
A youthful star to watch
Mississippi State does have a strong veteran presence on the roster, but the leading scorer this season is true freshman point guard Josh Hubbard. A 4-star recruit out of high school, Hubbard has shined while averaging 17.1 points and shooting 36% from 3-point range.
Hubbard has mainly been a scorer in his freshman campaign while averaging just 1.7 assists, but he is a star in the making. He scored 32 points in a win over LSU and 34 points in a loss to Kentucky and has 22 games with 3+ made 3-pointers.
The one area Michigan State may be able to exploit is Hubbard’s youthfulness. The true freshman has appeared in 34 games but made just 15 starts during the season, and Hubbard will be going up against one of the most experienced backcourts in the country.
Michigan State’s depth comes in the backcourt with veteran contributors Tyson Walker, AJ Hoggard and Jaden Akins all averaging 10+ points and 1+ steals this season. If that group can disrupt Hubbard and force him into some miscues, that will tilt the matchup in favor of Izzo’s group.
Indiana State will not be going dancing this year, much to the chagrin of the college basketball world.
For much of the season, the Sycamores were the talk of the country in large part to a captivating and dynamic big man in Robbie Avila. The 6-foot-10 and spectacled big man wowed fans with his scoring, rebounding and passing ability while also shooting the deep ball at a 40% clip.
In the regular season, Indiana State went 28-6 and won the outright title in the Missouri Valley Conference. Unfortunately, the Sycamores went cold while shooting 29% from 3-point range in the MVC Tournament championship and were eliminated from the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament in the 84-80 loss to Drake.
Despite playing in a non-power conference, there was still some hope Indiana State could earn an at-large bid to the final NCAA Tournament field. Unfortunately, those hopes were squashed with Sunday’s reveal of the 68-team bracket and the Sycamores failing to earn a spot.
Remarkably, Indiana State maintained the 29th overall NET ranking ahead of Sunday’s reveal, making the Sycamores the first-ever team to finish in the top 30 of the NET and miss the final field. (The NET was first incorporated in 2019.)
Indiana State, with a NET of 29, was left out of the bracket. pic.twitter.com/1QzWFPb2V3
— CBS Sports College Basketball ? (@CBSSportsCBB) March 17, 2024
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Reaction to the snub
Rarely does one team generate the type of interest Indiana State did among college hoops fans, particularly for a smaller school outside of the power conferences. That’s the power of technology in this era, and the presence of a likable and dynamic big man in Avila.
Many fans were left fuming over the Sycamores missing out on the Big Dance while other struggling power conference teams, like Virginia, safely landed in the field of 68. Others could not hold back their disappointment from seeing Avila on the biggest stage of all in March Madness.
Take a look:
I'd watch Indiana State players park cars before watching this Virginia team play basketball in the NCAA Tournament
— Brendan Quinn (@BFQuinn) March 17, 2024
Indiana State is 25 spots higher than Virginia in the NET rankings and 24 spots higher on Kenpom. But Indiana State disappointed against top competition, unlike Virginia, which impressed against a rigorous ACC schedule by going
…
2-7 against Quad 1 opponents— Rodger Sherman (@rodger) March 17, 2024
Watching Virginia’s 40 PPG offense get in over Robbie Avila & Indiana State: https://t.co/lZLgGHE7bZ pic.twitter.com/lTRRmyPIbj
— College Sports Only (@CollegeSportsO) March 17, 2024
Indiana State would beat Virginia by 10 tomorrow.
— Paul Oren (@TVBOren) March 17, 2024
Why even have the NET rating if you are putting in Virginia (54) and leave out Indiana State (29). https://t.co/C20rCvulYH
— Tyler Garret Smith (@ArenaFanatic) March 17, 2024
No Robbie Avila in the NCAA Tournament 🙁 pic.twitter.com/K83TzbZtZs
— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) March 17, 2024
imagine choosing skipping Robbie Avila for this smh pic.twitter.com/jyAMbBPXp9
— whitney medworth (@its_whitney) March 17, 2024
March Madness without Robbie Avila is an absolute travesty. pic.twitter.com/z6Y3Be38dN
— The College Basketball Stories Podcast (@theCBBstories) March 17, 2024
We got robbed of a Robbie Avila March Madness run 😭pic.twitter.com/O0OwivuN89
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) March 17, 2024
Robbie Avila is made for March and we are all cheated out of him. pic.twitter.com/xbylAIjh0H
— Wes Reynolds (@WesReynolds1) March 17, 2024
Indiana State got screwed… I’m sick of it.
WE DESERVED CREAM ABDUL JABAAR IN THE DANCE
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) March 17, 2024
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