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Oh, how sweet it already is.
On Thursday night, the Sweet 16 kicked off with a star-studded field. Where were the upsets on opening weekend? They were waiting for us in the Sweet 16, where 3 favorites (Arizona, Iowa State and UNC) went down.
Here’s a takeaway from each game, along with a thought on each Sweet 16 matchup on Friday:
Clemson vs. Arizona — This Clemson defense is no joke
Arizona was all out of sorts until it was too late. A Clemson team that most of us, myself included, didn’t have winning in the Round of 64 against New Mexico is advancing to the Elite Eight because of how well it defends. Specifically, Clemson is moving on because Brent Venables’ defense is that good. Whoops. Wrong sport/decade of Clemson. The Tigers are allowing opponents to shoot just 18.7% from 3-point range in the NCAA Tournament, and nobody has made more than 6 3s. That length and the switch to the zone threw off an immensely talented Arizona team and it trailed all night.
Six-seed or not, a Clemson team that’s been an underdog in every game so far is going to be a brutal out the rest of the way.
San Diego State vs. UConn — If you weren’t on board with UConn vs. the field, are you now?
If you just saw the final score, you’d yawn and think that a No. 1 seed beat up on a Mountain West team. Lost in the shuffle of that was San Diego State — last year’s national runner-up — hung tough and had it within 4 late in the first half. Donovan Clingan struggled early and Jaedon LeDee looked every bit like the All-American he’s been. And then, of course, UConn happened. The defense was lights out. Danny Hurley’s team flipped it into overdrive and a close game turned into a 30-point rout. Insane.
UConn has won every NCAA Tournament game in the past 2 years by at least 13 points. That’s 8-0 with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. On top of that, the notion of UConn facing Arizona in the Final Four in Phoenix went out the window with the Wildcats’ loss to Clemson. In other words, that path to become the first team to repeat since 2006-07 Florida cleared up even more for the defending champs.
Alabama vs. North Carolina — An unlikely team had an unlikely hero
Remember last year when Alabama was a 1-seed that swept the SEC regular season and conference tournament with arguably the best player in the country in Brandon Miller? Nate Oats still couldn’t get past the Sweet 16. So how fitting it was that a year later, as a 4-seed after a herky-jerky season that saw Alabama go one-and-done in the SEC Tournament, Grant Nelson put on his cape and led the Tide to the program’s first Elite Eight berth in 20 years. That’s March, baby. Nelson was brilliant, not just on offense with his season-high 24 points, but his 2 defensive stands on RJ Davis in the final minute were remarkable, as was his game-sealing block on UNC’s full-court heave at the buzzer.
Nelson isn’t quite in the Jack Gohlke category of March heroes because he’s at least been the starter for a team that’s on its way to the Elite Eight, but he certainly put himself in a different stratosphere. Perhaps it’s only fitting that a football-like matchup with Clemson stands in the way of Alabama’s first Final Four trip in program history.
Iowa State vs. Illinois — Not even the nation’s top defense could defend Terrence Shannon Jr.
Iowa State entered the night ranked No. 1 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric having not allowed a 25-point scorer since Houston star Jamal Shead dropped 26 on the Cyclones on Feb. 19. It was fair to question if Shannon would struggle against that defensive pressure. Instead, he was on fire. The nation’s 3rd-leading scorer dropped 29 points in just 22 minutes — he got into foul trouble — to send Illinois to its first Elite Eight berth since 2005. Brad Underwood’s star continued his blazing March and further solidified the notion that he’s the best pure scorer remaining in the NCAA Tournament.
It’ll be a fascinating matchup for a UConn squad that reminded us just how elite it is defensively. To slow down this Illini squad is to give Shannon some sort of resistance, which the Huskies showed they were capable of doing against LeDee. A heavyweight fight awaits on Saturday.
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And 1 thought on each Friday game …
NC State vs. Marquette — Let’s look at the recent double-digit seeds vs. single-digit seeds in the Sweet 16
Here’s your reference point, NC State fans:
- 2013 — No. 12 Oregon, L 77-69 vs. No. 1 Louisville
- No. 13 LaSalle, L 72-58 vs. No. 9 Wichita State
- No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast, L 62-50 vs. No. 3 Florida
- 2014 — No. 11 Tennessee, L 73-71 vs. No. 2 Michigan
- 2015 — No. 11 UCLA, L 74-62 vs. No. 2 Gonzaga
- 2016 — None
- 2017 — No. 11 Xavier, W 73-71 vs. No. 2 Arizona
- 2018 — No. 11 Loyola-Chicago, W 78-62 vs. No. 7 Nevada
- No. 11 Syracuse, L 69-65 vs. No. 2 Duke
- 2019 — No. 12 Oregon, L 53-49 vs. No. 1 Virginia
- 2021 — No. 11 UCLA, W 88-78 (OT) vs. No. 2 Alabama
- No. 15 Oral Roberts, L 72-70 vs. No. 3 Arkansas
- No. 12 Oregon State, W 65-58 vs. No. 8 Loyola-Chicago
- No. 11 Syracuse, L 62-46 vs. No. 2 Houston
- 2022 — No. 15 Saint Peter’s, W 67-64 vs. No. 3 Purdue
- No. 11 Michigan, L 63-55 vs. No. 2 Villanova
- 2023 — No. 15 Princeton, L 86-75 vs. No. 6 Creighton
A 5-11 mark for double-digit seeds vs. single-digit seeds isn’t that bad. If you just look at since 2017, that mark is 5-6.
If you want to focus on double-digit seeds vs. top-2 seeds since 2013, however, they’re 2-7. That 2017 Xavier squad is the lone double-digit seed to beat a top-2 seed in regulation since 2013 (that excludes UCLA’s 2021 overtime win vs. Alabama). In other words, NC State is battling at least some history.
Gonzaga vs. Purdue — If not now, then when for Matt Painter?
I know. We ask that question too often in sports. I’m guilty of it, and some might think I’m guilty of it here. But just stay with me for a second. If Painter loses either game this weekend, he’ll enter Year 20 having never been to a Final Four. If he loses to a red-hot Gonzaga team, he’ll enter Year 20 with 1 Elite Eight trip. He’ll also enter Year 20 with Zach Edey off to the NBA. Edey is an advantage unlike any he’s ever had, too.
It’s not that Painter’s legacy is on the line and he’s suddenly a bad coach if his team falls short of that. But it’s fair to wonder if that opportunity came and went if he fails to lead Purdue to its first Final Four since the Jimmy Carter administration.
Duke vs. Houston — Duke settling for 3s would be a bad formula for an upset
What a weird time to be alive where it’s Duke that’s trying to pull off the upset against Houston. But yes, that’s reality. At 30%, nobody in the remaining field defends the 3-ball better than Houston (No. 16 in America), and that’s been ramped up lately with an average of 5 made threes allowed in the last 7 games.
The Blue Devils only average 22.2 threes per game, which is very middle-of-the-pack nationally, so it’s not necessarily a team that gets roped into that very often. But coming off the James Madison beatdown, wherein they were 14-for-28 from long range because Jared McCain couldn’t miss, it might be easy to default to that. If I’m Duke, I’m going into this game knowing that possessions will be at a premium. I’d also be looking to attack the rim and either try to get higher-percentage looks or get Houston into some foul trouble to test that depth. Texas A&M did that, and it nearly resulted in a monumental upset.
Duke beating Houston wouldn’t be a “monumental upset,” but it would certainly be Jon Scheyer’s best win to date.
Creighton vs. Tennessee — Dalton Knecht, the stage is yours
As much as I’ve said all week that the non-Knecht Tennessee starters need to start knocking down some shots, this is the time for Knecht to be that all-important difference-maker. The All-American has been a revelation, and in a season in which many have complained about the lack of stars in the sport, Knecht’s flair can be just what the doctor ordered for Tennessee in March. His ability to score 10 points in a 5-minute stretch is second to none.
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Creighton has a variety of offensive options. A team with 3 guys averaging north of 17 points is eventually going to get something going, even against a group as lockdown as Tennessee is. Knecht being the guy who helps the Vols keep pace is essential.
If Knecht can lead Tennessee to its second Elite Eight berth in program history, he’ll never pay for a drink in the Volunteer State.
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Illinois outlasted Iowa State 72-69 on Thursday night to clinch its spot in the Elite Eight.
The Illini are now one win away from their first Final Four appearance since 2005. The Illini also haven’t been to the Elite Eight since that 2005 squad that ultimately lost to North Carolina in the national title game.
Here are 3 takeaways from Illinois’ win.
Illinois’ defense stepped up
The Illini’s defense has come under fire over the past few weeks as they entered the weekend with the second-worst defensive efficiency of any remaining team in the field (behind only Alabama) per KenPom. But Illinois responded in a big way by limiting a solid Iowa State offense to just 69 points on the night.
Iowa State shot just 39% from the field. The Cyclones were able to make 46% of their 3-point tries, but they only attempted 13 3-pointers on the night. Their final official attempt from distance came with 5:27 left on the clock.
Curtis Jones scored 26 points on 18 shots for Iowa State off the bench. All other Cyclones combined to score 43 points on 40 field goal attempts.
Illinois survived an off-night offensively
The defense helped make up for what was an off night offensively for the Fighting Illini outside of Terrence Shannon Jr.’s solid performance. Illinois shot just 42% from the field as a team. Shannon, for his part, scored 29 points on 10-of-29 shooting. It was his 7th consecutive game of 25+ points.
Coleman Hawkins was the only other Illinois player to score in double figures, as he added 12 points and 6 rebounds on the night. Marcus Domask scored just 7 points on 11 shots, but did have a team-high 5 assists.
Illinois only scored 21 total points in the second half, but it was just enough to outlast the Cyclones.
Looking ahead to UConn
Illinois will have its work cut out for it in the Elite Eight. The Fighting Illini will be taking on the Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed in UConn.
The Huskies dispatched of San Diego State by 30 points on Thursday night to secure their spot in the next round. Dating back to last season, it was UConn’s 9th consecutive NCAA Tournament victory by double digits.
Illinois will need to bring its best defensive performance of the season and have a stronger showing by its offense if it wants to be the team to upset UConn in this year’s Big Dance. Tipoff is set for 6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday night in Boston.
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Illinois is set to face Iowa State with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line on Thursday night.
Both the Illini and Cyclones won by double digits in both games last weekend. This is a matchup between KenPom’s No. 1 offense (Illinois) vs. its No. 1 defense (Iowa State).
Here’s a breakdown of this matchup followed by a few player prop picks:
Illinois vs. Iowa State betting info
- Spread: Iowa State -1.5
- Total: 147.5 points
To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:
Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings
- Illinois: 126.8 (1st)
- Iowa State: 114.3 (48th)
Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings
- Illinois: 87.5 (1st)
- Iowa State: 103.5 (120th)
Opponent-adjusted tempo
- Illinois: 69.7 possessions per game (71st)
- Iowa State: 67.2 possessions per game (206th)
Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:
Terrence Shannon Jr. over 21.5 points (-110 on FanDuel)
Terrence Shannon Jr. has been college basketball’s best scorer for a few weeks now. He’s scored 25+ points in 6 straight games and is averaging 27.1 points per contest since Feb. 10 (12-game sample). Iowa State’s elite defense is probably why this number is just 21.5 points, but the Cyclones have given up a few 20-point games recently. I think they’ll make things difficult on Shannon, but he should still get to 22 points in this matchup — with the upside for plenty more.
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Keshon Gilbert under 1.5 steals (+120 on ESPN Bet)
Iowa State is No. 3 in the entire country in steal rate, which is a big part of why the Cyclones’ defense has been so successful season. Keshon Gilbert averaged 1.6 steals per game in Big Ten play, but he didn’t have any in Iowa State’s round-of-32 win over Washington State. Illinois does a very good job of taking care of the ball — it ranked 3rd in the Big Ten in offensive steal rate this season. Gilbert figures to be at the top of the Illini’s scouting report (along with Tamin Lipsey) in that regard, and I think they’ll be focused on limiting his opportunities to create steals.
Coleman Hawkins under 6.5 rebounds (-140 on ESPN Bet)
Coleman Hawkins has enjoyed a great season with the Illini, but he is not a great rebounder. Iowa State struggles on the defensive glass (230th nationally), but Hawkins is a poor offensive rebounder for a big (just 5.1%). I also think this could be a matchup where Dain Dainja plays quite a bit and therefore takes some boards away from Hawkins. In each of the past 2 games where Dainja has played 20+ minutes, Hawkins has gone under 6.5 rebounds. For the season, Hawkins averaged 6.1 rebounds per contest.
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Illinois is looking to get back to the Elite 8 for the first time since 2005. To do that, the 3-seed Illini will have to get past 2-seed Iowa State on Thursday night in a clash of conference tournament champions.
Ahead of tipoff (10:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV), DraftKings Sportsbook shared with Saturday Tradition how the game is being bet.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close game. At publishing time, Illinois is a 1.5-point underdog.
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Illinois with the points is priced at -112, meaning a $112 bet would be needed to win $100. Iowa State as a 1.5-point favorite is priced at -108, translating to a $108 bet potentially winning $100.
After a chalky opening weekend, point spread bettors are once again going with the favorite.
As of Thursday morning, Iowa State has been receiving 57% of the spread bets for 63% of the handle (the amount of money in play). Illinois is getting 37% of the bets for 43% of the handle.
- Iowa State -1.5 (-108): 57% handle, 63% bets
- Illinois +1.5 (+108): 43% handle, 37% bets
Bettors who like Illinois are foregoing the point spread. Unlike the spread, Illinois is the popular pick on the moneyline.
Illinois to win straight up is priced at +100. A $100 bet would win $100 for a $200 payout. Iowa State is priced at -120. An ISU straight-up bettor would need to wager $120 to win $100.
The bet split is 54/46 Illinois. The handle split is even wider for Illinois, at 68/32.
- Illinois to win (+100): 68% handle, 54% bets
- Iowa State to win (-120): 32% handle, 46% handle
Bettors expecting some scoring
The over/under line for the game is currently set at 147 total points. Leading up to the game, bettors are expecting the teams to exceed that point total.
Over is priced at -112. If 148 points or more are scored, a bet of $112 would win $100. The under is priced at -108, meaning only $108 would need to be wagered to win a Benjamin.
The bet and handle splits are relatively similar for the point total. Over is getting 75% of the bets for 72% of the handle. The under has 25% of bets for 28% of the handle.
- Over 147 points (-112): 72% handle, 75% bets
- Under 147 points (-108): 28% handle, 25% bets
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How they got here
Illinois is on quite the hot streak. The Illini won 4 of 5 to close out the regular season. In the Big Ten Tournament, Illinois defeated Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin for a conference title.
In the NCAA Tournament, Illinois picked a pair of solid wins over 14-seed Morehead State (85-69) and 11-seed Duquesne.
Iowa State ended the regular season with a 65-58 loss to Kansas State. ISU’s first Big 12 Tournament game was a rematch with KSU and the Cyclones won 76-57.
ISU has stayed, beating Baylor and Houston to win the conference tournament. In the Big Dance, Iowa State has posted double-digit wins over 15-seed South Dakota State (82-65) and 7-seed Washington State (67-56).
I’ve got a prediction. This Sweet 16 will be … sweet.
Sorry. I’ll show myself out.
In all seriousness, we’re set up for a fantastic weekend of hoops. As great as the Cinderella stories are during opening weekend, they usually set us up for a disappointing second weekend. With just 1 team seeded lower than 6 remaining in the field (11-seed NC State) and all the 1-2 seeds still alive, we should have heavyweight fights galore.
That’s why this tournament is as good as there is. There’s always a silver lining, no matter what the result is.
I won’t pretend to have a crystal ball, but I picked how I thought the rest of the tournament would play out.
Instead of providing answers to that, let’s ask some pressing questions ahead of a sure-to-be-sweet Sweet 16:
1. How does UConn defend the 2024 version of Jaedon LeDee?
It’s a national championship rematch, but it feels like 2 extremely different teams this year. A big part of that is because of the player LeDee has become. He was a role player on last year’s runner-up squad — he had 5 points in 17 minutes against UConn. Now, he has become an unstoppable force for the Aztecs. How does UConn contain LeDee? Or are the Huskies OK with letting him get 20 and 10?
As versatile as UConn is with the ways it can win games — that explains the double-digit spread via DraftKings — one thing it hasn’t really had to work against was Donovan Clingan getting in foul trouble. He has yet to foul out of a game this season. Could we see Alex Karaban handle LeDee on some switches? He’s a unique matchup for a UConn team that hasn’t faced a lot of bigs with his size (6-9, 240 pounds) and experience (he’ll be 25 in July). Even UNC’s Armando Bacot, who had 13 points in a loss at UConn earlier this year, isn’t as polished as LeDee.
The defending champs might’ve gotten a fortunate bounce by not having to face Auburn, but LeDee could give them everything that they can handle.
2. Can Clemson slow down Caleb Love and Arizona?
I don’t mean “slow down” from a game-to-game momentum standpoint. I mean actually slow down the pace that Arizona wants to play at. Arizona is No. 16 in America in adjusted tempo while Clemson is No. 256. Here are the adjusted tempo rankings of the teams that Arizona lost to this season (via KenPom):
- Purdue: No. 173
- FAU: No. 132
- Stanford: No. 71
- Washington State (twice): No. 322
- Oregon State: No. 310
- USC: No. 138
- Oregon: No. 196
That’s 8 losses, all of which came against teams outside the top 70 in adjusted tempo, 7 of which were outside the top 130. Where does Clemson rank in adjusted tempo, you ask? No. 256. It’s worth noting that Arizona adjusted well in the Round of 32 against a Dayton team that ranked No. 334 in that department. Can the Wildcats control the pace? That could determine if they reach their first Elite Eight since 2015.
3. In the battle of Mark Sears vs. RJ Davis, who prevails?
If you’re a fan of elite guard play, you should be fully dialed into Alabama-UNC, where 2 of the nation’s best guards will square off. Both seniors have blossomed into elite scorers even though they’re usually the smallest players on the court. They’re fearless driving to the basket and they can make you pay from 3-point range with clips between 41-43%.
If this game is close, we could get a fun back-and-forth with both guys going back and forth on late-in-the-shotclock isolation plays. Davis has more experience doing that on this stage, but it’s hard to deny how brilliant Sears has been for the Tide so far in the NCAA Tournament. He averaged 28 points, 8 rebounds and 5.5 assists on 55% shooting and 47% from beyond the arc. Any path for an Alabama calls for Sears to win that battle against Davis.
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4. Will Alabama continue this whole “defense” thing against UNC?
It’s well-documented how much the Tide have struggled on that side of the ball. That’s why it was such a surprise to see Alabama defend as well as it did during the opening weekend. Nate Oats’ squad defended well in 3 of 4 halves, though the second half against a high-scoring Charleston squad also felt like the byproduct of the Tide possessing a double-digit lead.
If Alabama gets big minutes out of Mouhamed Diabate and Grant Nelson can bring the type of defensive effort we saw against Grand Canyon, that’ll make it a 40-minute game. UNC is old, prolific and unafraid. In other words, don’t expect the Heels to be anywhere near as scatterbrained as Grand Canyon was. Still, though. Alabama’s defensive effort will be the deciding factor on Thursday night in Los Angeles.
5. How does Iowa State’s elite defense handle Terrence Shannon Jr.?
The Cyclones are the No. 1 team in America in adjusted defensive efficiency. Will that translate against arguably the best pure scorer in America in Shannon? It’s a fair question in a game that has the smallest spread (Iowa State -1.5 at DraftKings) of any Sweet 16 matchup. Iowa State hasn’t faced a ton of elite pure scorers. You could make the case that the last one the Cyclones saw was Texas A&M’s Wade Taylor IV back in November. That was a game in which Taylor was contained to 14 points without a single made 3-pointer, yet the Aggies came out with a victory.
Shannon is a much different player than the 6-6 Taylor — the Illinois guard is half a foot taller — so it’s not a perfect comp from a defensive game plan standpoint. But it’ll be interesting to see how he’s defended. Shannon has scored at least 25 in 6 consecutive games — all Illinois wins. The last time a player hit 25 points against Iowa State was when Houston All-American Jamal Shead dropped 26 — 20 which came in the second half — in a 73-65 Cougars win on Feb. 19.
When Shannon hits 25 points, Illinois is 11-2. It’s safe to say his ability to get to the rack will have a major impact on whether the Illini reach the Elite Eight for the first time since 2005.
6. What’s the true immovable force — NC State or Marquette with Tyler Kolek back?
What a missed opportunity that was for me to say that DJ Burns is an immovable force. My bad. I’ll be better.
NC State is indeed an immovable force. Seven consecutive victories in the postseason — with 5 different leading scorers — have many wondering if we’re witnessing a modern-day version of Jim Valvano’s 1983 Cardiac Pack who won it all as a 6-seed. The road to repeating that feat is still long, especially knowing that Marquette awaits.
Kolek’s return to the lineup has been everything for Shaka Smart’s squad. He was the first player since Jason Kidd to have 10 points, 10 assists and 5 rebounds in consecutive NCAA Tournament games. The Golden Eagles have won 13 out of the past 14 games that he’s been healthy, and the lone loss was at UConn. There’s no denying that Kolek is Marquette’s key. The question is if he unlock a winning plan to finally halt this NC State run.
7. Is Purdue actually over the hump?
Blasting Grambling and Utah State showed that this Purdue team was mentally tougher than last year’s squad. But did it show that the Boilermakers are ready for a deep run? That, we don’t know. Matt Painter’s well-documented 1 trip to the Elite Eight — a game that Purdue was 1 defensive stand from beating eventual-national champ Virginia — looms large, especially with who awaits.
Mark Few’s 5 Elite Eight trips in the past 8 years get lost in the shuffle of the “will he ever win the big one” conversation. Gonzaga’s opening weekend performance also got lost in the shuffle. All the Zags did was dismantle trendy upset pick McNeese and follow that up by routing a depleted Kansas squad. They handled Jayhawks All-American 7-footer Hunter Dickinson just fine. Will that translate to the ever-unique task of defending 7-4 Zach Edey? It could, which would immediately quiet the notion that Purdue’s opening weekend showing was the beginning of a 2019 Virginia-like run.
8. Will Tennessee find some life from 3?
I’m not breaking any news to Tennessee fans here, but it’s worth repeating. The Vols started an NCAA Tournament game by going 1-for-21 from 3-point range and survived. That’s not supposed to happen. But when you defend as well as Rick Barnes’ squad does, well, there’s some margin for error. One would think against a dynamic offensive team like Creighton, there’s less margin for error. The Bluejays’ prolific scoring attack — they have 3 players averaging at least 17 points per game — can put a ton of pressure on an opposing team to make shots.
The past 6 games, the Vols shot 29.8% from 3-point range and 37.2% overall. The confidence issues of Santiago Vescovi are still a question, as are other non-Dalton Knecht scoring options Josiah Jordan-James and Zakai Zeigler. As decorated as Knecht is, Tennessee needs a more versatile attack if it wants to reach the Elite Eight for the first time in 14 years.
9. Does Houston have enough left in the tank for Duke?
Here’s all you need to know. Houston’s depth was gutted so badly by the end of that overtime thriller against Texas A&M that it had a walk-on shooting free throws to try and put the game away. Granted, a whistle-happy officiating crew sidelined Houston’s 3 best players late. Still, though. Kelvin Sampson has been blunt about his depth in March. Being without 2 rotation guys, with the way his team defends, is significant. As bad as that collapse late was against A&M, it’s a testament to Sampson that his team found a way to pull that game out in overtime.
With a bit of rest, can Houston recharge for a matchup against red-hot Duke? The good news is that it should feel like a Houston home game with it being played in Dallas. That’s not an easy advantage to have against a national fan base that travels like the Blue Devils. This Duke team wants to play in the half-court and create quality looks with 5 guys who pass the ball well. That’s usually tough to do against Houston’s defense … as long as it isn’t running on fumes. To be determined on that.
10. We can’t get all 1-2 matchups in the Elite Eight … right?
That’s essentially hitting an 8-leg parlay with these moneyline odds for each 1-2 seed to win (odds via DraftKings):
- No. 1 Houston (-192)
- No. 1 Purdue (-230)
- No. 1 UNC (-185)
- No. 1 UConn (-625)
- No. 2 Iowa State (-122)
- No. 2 Arizona (-310)
- No. 2 Tennessee (-162)
- No. 2 Marquette (-290)
My guess is that this is more like 2019 when all the 1-2 seeds were still alive in the Sweet 16, but the Elite Eight consisted of 5 top-2 seeds, a pair of No. 3 seeds and No. 5 seed Auburn. Either way, it’s a wildly different tournament than last year when all the 1-seeds were eliminated before the Elite Eight for the first time.
A sweet couple of days are in store.
Aidan Chiles is a key piece of Michigan State’s new-look quarterback room under Jonathan Smith. He’s the likely favorite to become the starting QB this fall, and his reasons for coming to East Lansing stand out.
On Tuesday, Chiles addressed the media and discussed following Smith from Oregon State. A former 4-star recruit, Chiles saw limited playing time as a freshman for the Beavers before Smith was hired by the Spartans.
Ultimately, the decision to head to East Lansing was an easy one:
“The process of me actually getting here was a very easy decision for me. It was my coach,” explained Chiles.
He went on to say he picked Oregon State as a program but grew close to Smith throughout his freshman year. Chiles wanted to keep that bond going when Smith took the job at MSU.
“I committed to Oregon State as a program first, and then throughout the entire freshman year, I had conversations with Coach Smith the whole time,” said Chiles. “We just got closer, a closer bond, and he’s my coach, that’s why I followed him here.”
Aidan Chiles spoke publicly for the first time since transferring to Michigan State with Jonathan Smith.
“That’s my coach. I committed to Oregon State as a program at first,” the QB said. “We just got closer, a closer bond. And he’s my coach. So that’s why I followed him here.” pic.twitter.com/Wx0CmNabc7
— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) March 27, 2024
Chiles joins an MSU program looking to turn things around after a 9-16 mark the past two seasons and the off-field debacle involving former head coach Mel Tucker. Things will not be easy in the deeper Big Ten, but fans can track all the odds for the 2024 season with Tradition’s sports betting in Ohio links and apps.
Why Chiles’ reasons matters
Chiles confirming his transfer is heavily related to Smith’s coaching is a reminder that every transfer is sometimes different. In this era of massive NIL deals and Kadyn Proctor’s Iowa-to-Alabama about face, Chiles opted to follow the bond with his coach.
To be clear: Chiles will likely net his fair share of NIL deals in East Lansing if he performs well, but the driving force matters. And his bond with Smith should bode well for the offense in 2024.
Last season, Michigan State endured one of the worst offensive seasons in quite some time while averaging 15.9 points per game. That mark ranked 131st out of 133 FBS teams.
Along the way, the Spartans played 4 different QBs and saw every scholarship QB (Katin Houser, Noah Kim and Sam Leavitt) exit the program via the transfer portal. Following up that type of performance by pairing Chiles with Smith is a massive win.
A QB alone cannot fix the problems in East Lansing, but Chiles sounds like a difference-maker who selected the Spartans for all the right reasons. Now, he’s giving a bit of hope to a fanbase entering Smith’s first season in East Lansing.
Brad Underwood turned things around quickly at Illinois. March Madness success did not immediately follow, but after adapting in recent seasons, Underwood has his team on the verge of a massive breakthrough.
When Underwood arrived in Champaign ahead of the 2017-18 season, the Illini had not been to the Big Dance since 2013. That 4-year drought would extend through Underwood’s first two seasons in Illinois before the COVID cancellation of 2020.
That year, Illinois finished 21st overall in the final AP Poll, so the Illini were going to be in the final field no matter what. Fortunately, the positive results in the regular season continued in 2020-21.
Illinois punched a 1-seed in 2021 as the B1G Tournament champs, and a shared regular-season title in 2022 earned the program a 4-seed. Unfortunately, second-round exits plagued the Illini as the growth of the transfer portal started to take a toll.
Underwood’s early success was built on elite recruiting with key pieces Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu starring for the Illini. Then, with multiple players hitting the transfer portal out, Underwood turned his attention to the transfer portal to find star power coming into the program.
Key portal pieces and their impact
Beginning in the 2022 offseason, Underwood began his more aggressive approach to the transfer portal. No longer was he looking for role players and complementary pieces, Underwood hit the portal with difference-makers in mind.
It started with a group that included Terrence Shannon Jr., Matthew Mayer and Dain Dainja. Every player in that group averaged 9+ points per game last season while Shannon has been the leading scorer for the program 2 years running.
This past offseason, Underwood dipped back into the portal for Marcus Domask, Quincy Guerrier and Justin Harmon. Harmon has been the epitome of a strong role player, but Domask and Guerrier have started all 36 games this season entering the Sweet 16.
From those newer additions, Guerrier has averaged 9.8 points anad 6.2 rebounds while Domask has averaged 16.1 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists and also delivered an NCAA Tournament triple-double. Underwood has also altered his playing style with those new pieces, and it has paid off.
Instead of playing a traditional frontcourt, Underwood has often played Coleman Hawkins or Dainja as the main big man on the floor at a time. Surrounding those big men, Underwood has utilized a heavy 6-wing rotation, including 4 players that shoot better than 36% from 3-point range.
The new focus on the portal and shift in playing style has resulted in the No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom. Now, Underwood pits that style against Iowa State in an elite Sweet 16 matchup of contrasting styles. Be sure to track the latest odds for the rest of March Madness with Tradition’s Ohio sportsbooks.
Everything from here on out will be a tough fight for every team, and Illinois is no different. The Illini could make it to the Final Four, but whether or not they do, one truth stands out from this season.
Underwood was quick to embrace and be aggressive in this era of portal movers, and he’s made it work in masterful fashion for Illinois.
The Sweet 16 is set to begin on Thursday night with Clemson taking on Arizona in the first game of the round.
The first 2 rounds of the NCAA Tournament were exciting as always, but they only produced a couple of major upsets. Every No. 1 and No. 2 seed made it into the second weekend of the Big Dance.
Favorites were particularly profitable in the round of 32 when they went 15-1 straight up and 11-5 against the spread. That’s something to keep in mind as the Sweet 16 tips off on Thursday night.
Here are my against-the-spread picks for the Sweet 16:
Note: All spreads via Bet365 unless otherwise noted:
Thursday, March 28
6 Clemson vs. 2 Arizona | 7:09 p.m. ET | Los Angeles, California | CBS
Spread: Arizona -7
Clemson needed 2 upsets — and a lot of shooting luck — to get to this game. New Mexico and Baylor shot just 19% from 3-point range against the Tigers last weekend, and I’m not sure that kind of luck is going to continue in this spot against Arizona.
However, the Wildcats have struggled a bit more down the stretch and even appeared to be on the ropes a little bit vs. Long Beach State in the first round. According to EvanMiya’s relative ratings index, Clemson has performed at an elite level vs. the best teams in the country this season. I think Arizona will probably end up winning this game, but I like Clemson to keep it close.
Pick: Clemson +7.5 (via FanDuel)
5 San Diego State vs. 1 UConn | 7:39 p.m. ET | Boston, Massachusetts | TBS/truTV
Spread: UConn -11
UConn has looked like a buzz-saw pretty much since the start of last year’s NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have now won 8 straight NCAA Tournament games by double digits dating back to last year’s title run, and Vegas is expecting that streak to continue vs. SDSU. Of course, this game against the Aztecs will be a rematch of last year’s national title game, which UConn won 76-59.
Ultimately, I think this is too many points for the Huskies. San Diego State has the No. 8 defense in the country according to KenPom’s efficiency metric, which should allow the Aztecs to keep this game within single digits.
Pick: San Diego State +11
4 Alabama vs. 1 North Carolina | After Clemson/Arizona game | Los Angeles, California | CBS
Spread: North Carolina -4
North Carolina enters this game on a hot streak, having won 10 of its last 11 games overall. Alabama struggled down the stretch of the season and needed a late charge to get past Grand Canyon in the round of 32.
Alabama’s defense is a big weakness. Since Feb. 1, the Tide’s defense ranks 141st nationally per BartTorvik’s defensive efficiency rankings. I’m not moved by Alabama’s 86.5 defensive rating against Grand Canyon — the Lopes made it easy on Alabama by choosing to not run any sets. North Carolina plays with structure, which is something the Tide have not handled well this season. It’s hard to imagine betting on Alabama in this spot given its struggles on that end of the floor.
Pick: North Carolina -3.5 (via FanDuel)
States: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY
3 Illinois vs. 2 Iowa State | After San Diego State/UConn game | Boston, Massachusetts | TBS/truTV
Spread: Iowa State -1.5
Like Alabama, Illinois has also struggled mightily on the defensive end lately. But unlike Alabama, Illinois has one of the best scorers in the country in Terrance Shannon Jr. to make up for it. Shannon has scored 25+ points in 6 straight games and is averaging 27.1 points per game since Feb. 10.
Shannon and Illinois’ offense will be put to the test against Iowa State, who owns the nation’s No. 1 defense according to KenPom. It’s been more than a month since Iowa State gave up more than 1 point per possession (which last happened against Houston on Feb. 19). It’s tempting to take the elite offense, but I’m siding with the Cyclones in this spot.
Pick: Iowa State -1.5
Friday, March 29
11 NC State vs. 2 Marquette | 7:09 p.m. ET | Dallas, Texas | CBS
Spread: Marquette -6.5
Marquette battled some injury woes down the stretch of the season, but things appear to be coming together at the right time for the Golden Eagles. Marquette got past a really good Colorado team in the round of 32 and now has an opportunity to get to the Elite Eight without facing a single-digit seed.
NC State needed a miracle run at the ACC Tournament to even reach the Big Dance, and now finds itself in the Sweet 16 after winning a couple more close games. I think this is where NC State’s Cinderella story comes to an end — Marquette is too good and too ruthless to allow it to continue. I like the Golden Eagles by double digits.
Pick: Marquette -6.5
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5 Gonzaga vs. 1 Purdue | 7:39 p.m. ET | Detroit, Michigan | TBS/truTV
Spread: Purdue -5.5
This is an Elite Eight-quality game taking place in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga is a 5-seed, but the Bulldogs will enter this game as the No. 12 team in the country, per KenPom’s rankings. They haven’t lost to anyone besides Saint Mary’s since Jan. 11. They have good enough guard play to punish Purdue’s drop coverage. Gonzaga also has plenty of size to throw at Zach Edey and has no obvious weaknesses on either side of the ball. I see this as pretty close to a matchup nightmare for the Boilermakers and will gladly take the points with Gonzaga.
Pick: Gonzaga +5.5
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4 Duke vs. 1 Houston | After NC State/Marquette game | Dallas, Texas | CBS
Spread: Houston -4
Houston needed overtime to avoid an epic collapse against Texas A&M in the round of 32. Meanwhile, Duke took care of business in dominant fashion over the weekend with big wins over Vermont and James Madison. Houston will be a different kind of test, however, as the Blue Devils will go from facing double-digit seeds to one of the very best teams in the country. Houston proved itself over and over again in a tough Big 12 this season, and I’m backing the Cougars to make a statement against Duke in this spot.
Pick: Houston -3.5 (via BetMGM)
3 Creighton vs. 2 Tennessee | After Gonzaga/Purdue game | Detroit, Michigan | TBS/truTV
Spread: Tennessee -3
These teams are pretty close in terms of quality, but only one of them has Dalton Knecht. The All-American was quiet against Texas — which almost cost the Vols their season — but I think he’ll be ready to go in the Sweet 16 against Creighton. The Blue Jays are amongst the worst teams in the entire country in terms of forcing turnovers and getting to the foul line. Creighton’s offense generates nearly 40% of its offense from behind the 3-point line, and the Vols had a top-30 3-point percentage defense nationally in 2023-24. This doesn’t seem like a great matchup for the Blue Jays.
Pick: Tennessee -2.5 (via FanDuel)
States: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY
Matt Painter’s Boilermakers have been in this position before.
In 2019, they were within seconds of advancing to the Final Four — Purdue’s first since 1980 — when Virginia miraculously turned a backcourt tip into a 10-foot jumper in only 3 seconds left to tie at the buzzer, before winning in overtime in an Elite Eight thriller. In ’22, Purdue faced Cinderella Saint Peter’s in the Sweet 16, seemingly being dealt a greased pathway to at least the regional final, but couldn’t find a way to make the clock strike midnight on the Peacocks.
And those are only the most recent opportunities. Painter has advanced the Boilermakers to the Sweet 16 during 5 of the past 7 tournaments, laying waste to the inaccurate narrative that Purdue is a consistent first-weekend flameout. Until this season, when No. 1-seed Purdue vanquished 16-seed Grambling on Friday, double-digit seeds had been a problem, regardless of where it encountered them, with loses to North Texas, Saint Peter’s and FDU in consecutive seasons. But the Boilermakers are unlikely to lose to a double-digit seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament — only 1 remains in 11-seed NC State — and they hope to not lose at all. They might not, either. FanDuel lists the Boilers’ odds to win it all at +550, tied for the 2nd-best odds among the 16 teams left.
States: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY
Perhaps this season gives Purdue its best opportunity. Maybe it’s good that for the Boilermakers to reach the Final Four, they’ll do so against (mostly) Midwest Region chalk, facing 5-seed Gonzaga at 7:39 p.m. ET Friday night in Detroit, then either 2-seed Tennessee or 3-seed Creighton in the regional final. There won’t be a Mean Green or a Peacock or a Knight (or a Ram, like years ago when Purdue ran into Shaka Smart’s upstart VCU squad) to erect an unlikely roadblock.
No, Purdue knows what it’s up against. The Boilermakers are 7-0 against the Sweet 16 field this season, including Maui Invitational wins against the Zags and the Volunteers. But that was far back in November, and things have changed since then. Certainly, they have for the Bulldogs, who suffered through a mid-season malaise that saw them potentially on the brink of missing the tourney for the first time in two-and-a-half decades before they recovered at the end of the season. Gonzaga might not have the pros as in seasons past, but they have veterans — and a Hall of Fame coach in Mark Few — and won 8 straight games at the end of the regular-season (and 13 of 14) before falling to St. Mary’s in the West Coast Conference Tournament finale. During the stretch, Gonzaga’s offense was one of the most efficient in the country while averaging about 90 points per game.
But the Boilermakers, who beat the ‘Zags 73-63 on Nov. 20, are different, too. The emergence of freshman Myles Colvin during the NCAA Tournament has added an element to the Boilermakers’ second unit that Purdue had lacked during much of the regular season. The slow burn of the dynamic scorer’s growth this season is paying off right now, as Colvin played 26 minutes of the bench in the Boilermakers’ 2 NCAA wins last weekend, grabbing 3 rebounds and 3 assists in the opening-round win over Grambling, then scoring 9 on 3 3-pointers in the 2nd-round victory over Utah St.
If there’s an X-factor for the Boilermakers in Detroit, then perhaps it’s Colvin. He has taken rotation minutes from veteran defender Ethan Morton, who was a starter a year ago but gave that role up to Lance Jones when he transferred in from Southern Illinois. But with Colvin, Purdue’s 2s, which usually play for a stretch midway through the 1st half then potentially again early in the 2nd, give the Boilermakers an almost completely different look than the starters. And it’s showing to be a winning combination.
Against Utah State, big man Zach Edey played only 27 minutes and scored only 2 of Purdue’s 47 2nd-half points, yet the Boilermakers pulled away. Why? Purdue got a scoring boost from starters Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer, but the Jones-Colvin-Camden Heide group also spurred a run. The trio can match the athleticism of about anyone an opponent can put on the floor, a characteristic not many Purdue teams in the past have been able to claim.
This is the Boilermakers’ best chance at a Final Four, better even than in 2010 when Robbie Hummel’s knee injury in late February handicapped a deep NCAA run. It’s better than 2018, when then 2-seed Purdue lost center Isaac Haas to a “hook and hold” elbow injury in the opening-round. Better than a year later, when the Carsen Edwards-led 3rd-seeded Boilermakers came within a tenth-of-a-second from beating Virginia in one of the greatest Elite Eight games of all time. Better than when 3-seed Purdue lost to the Peacocks, and better than last season’s too-Edey-reliant No. 1 seed.
But nothing is a given, particularly in a Detroit region in which all 4 teams might feel like fate owes them one. Tennessee has never reached a Final Four, and Rick Barnes would love a return trip, after his only previous appearance with Texas in 2003. Few’s Gonzaga squads, once an NCAA Cinderella but now a mainstay, want another chance at a championship, after falling in the championship games in 2017 and ’21. A year ago, Greg McDermott’s Bluejays came within a couple points of beating San Diego State for a trip to their first-ever Final Four.
But the Boilermakers, after years of hardship (whether injury or upset), feels it’s their time. Maybe so.
NJ, PA, VA, MD, WV, MA, KS, KY, LA, TN, CO, AZ, IA, IL, IN, MI, OH
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Caitlin Clark has broken numerous records, especially during her senior season. With career and single-season points records checked off the list, it might seem like there aren’t many records left for her to reclaim. TV ratings appear to be the last frontier for Clark and the Hawkeyes as Iowa marches on in the Women’s NCAA Tournament.
On Tuesday, ESPN shared that Iowa’s NCAA Tournament game against Holy Cross on Saturday drew 3.2 million viewers on ABC, the most ever for a first-round game. It’s also the most ever for a pre-Final Four Women’s NCAA Tournament game.
Fans tuned in to First Round #NCAAWBB #MarchMadness on ESPN platforms
🏀 Most-consumed First Rd on record (1.5B total mins)
🏀 Iowa/Holy Cross: 3.2M viewers, most-viewed First Rd game on record
🏀 UConn/Jackson State: 1.1M viewers, 3rd most-viewed First Rd game on record pic.twitter.com/QpBqg7oNkC— ESPN PR (@ESPNPR) March 26, 2024
The pre-Final Four record had a short lifespan. Just 2 days after delivering 3.2 million viewers for ABC, ESPN drew 4.9 million viewers for Iowa’s second-round win over West Virginia.
On Saturday, Iowa set a viewership record for a non-Final Four game with 3.23 million viewers taking in Iowa-Holy Cross on ABC.
It took exactly 48 hours for the Hawkeyes to break that record as 4.9 million tuned in to ESPN for Iowa-West Virginia in the second-round. https://t.co/u4vN3Mc8zI
— Chantel Jennings (@ChantelJennings) March 26, 2024
More ratings records should be on the way
Up next for Clark and the 1-seed Hawkeyes is a game against 5-seed Colorado.
The West Virginia game showed that while Clark is a bona fide superstar, Iowa as a team is vulnerable. WVU’s attacking, physical defense kept a team that averages over 90 points per game in the low 60s.
It was far from Clark’s best night, as she shot just 8-of-22 from the floor. With 5 triples and multiple free throws, Clark finished with 32 points, half her team’s total.
The fact that Clark carried her team to a dramatic victory is likely to draw in more casual fans that are warming to women’s college basketball thanks to Clark and others.
If Iowa gets past Colorado, it could set up a matchup that would shatter Women’s NCAA Tournament Elite 8 viewing records. LSU awaits in the bracket as a 3-seed.
If the Tigers can defeat 2-seed UCLA on Saturday, it would set up a rematch of last year’s championship game. When ESPN can use Clark, Angel Reese and Kim Mulkey in promos, it’s safe to say the ratings will follow.
Clark and the Hawkeyes, obviously, aren’t focused on breaking ratings records as they have a national championship to win. As the records fall, though, it adds to Clark’s legacy of growing the game and bringing more attention to Iowa as a team.
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