As Week 1 of the NCAA college football season prepares to kick off, the remainder of the Big Ten Conference will open their seasons after Nebraska and Illinois got things started a week early. In that opener, the Big Ten conference saw its first upset of the season as Illinois knocked off Nebraska outright, despite coming in as nearly a touchdown underdog.

With a number of intriguing matchups ahead, let’s take a look at the best Big Ten upset picks for Week 1 of the college football season.

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Week 1 Big Ten College Football Upset Picks

There’s no doubt that several Big Ten schools are jumping right into competitive action this week, and no game is bigger than the Saturday afternoon showdown between Penn State and Wisconsin. We’ll jump into that game and take a look at the board to run down some other potential Big Ten upset picks.

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Penn State (+5.5) to Cover Against Wisconsin

Penn St. comes into this game chock full of value. After a 4-5 season that followed a preseason top ten ranking, the Nittany Lions will not receive the same early respect from bettors and oddsmakers this time around.

However, we should not forget that Penn St. opened 2020 with an overtime loss to Indiana and followed it up by dropping four more consecutive games. They went on to win their final four games, including double-digit road wins at Rutgers and Michigan, the latter as underdogs.

Penn St. also returns nine offensive and seven defensive starters, increasing the likelihood that they could start the season quickly. And, despite a poor record last season, the Nittany Lions actually improved on their +46 yards per game edge against Big Ten foes from 2019, out-gaining conference opponents by 102 yards per game in 2020.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, had trouble running the ball last season, the team’s first without Jonathan Taylor. They loaded up with young runners for this fall, but asking them to dominate their opener against a stout Penn St. defense is a tall order.

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The Badgers did not top seven points in three of their final four games last season and needed overtime to edge past Minnesota at home in the regular season finale. They won their bowl game, but were nearly doubled up by Wake Forest in yardage in the process. Wisconsin lost outright three times as favorites in 2020 and failed to cover the spread in both home efforts.

Also of note, Penn St. has won and covered four straight and six of seven in this head-to-head rivalry, with two of those wins coming as underdogs.

Penn State vs. Wisconsin Betting Pick

The Nittany Lions won three of the four meetings away from home in that span, with all three wins coming by a touchdown or more. Look for Penn St. to use its experience and 9-7 edge in games played last season to jump out early and push the Badgers here.

Our Pick: Penn State +5.5 

Indiana (+150) to Beat Iowa

Iowa and Indiana were both handed reasons to be miffed last season.

With the Big Ten-only schedule due to COVID-19, Iowa missed out on the chance to play the Cy-Hawk rivalry game with Iowa St. for the first time in over 40 years.

The team, which was the nation’s fifth-youngest last season, also saw its final regular season (Michigan) and bowl (Missouri) game canceled due to the virus and has not played a game since Dec. 12, 2020.

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While Kirk Ferentz is a top notch coach, it’s conceivable this young team could come out a bit flat, especially with Cy-Hawk looming next week as a potential look-ahead scenario. After all, Iowa is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 season openers and faces an Indiana team that defeated three ranked opponents last season.

In fact, the Hoosiers amazingly went 8-0 ATS during their 6-2 campaign in 2020, with seven of those covers coming against Big Ten opponents. A seven-point loss at Ohio St. as 20-point dogs, coupled with a late rule change, cost Indiana a spot in the Big Ten title game.

The team, which returns 17 starters, including star QB Michael Penix from his second ACL tear, should enter play with an immense chip on its shoulder from that highly contentious slight last season. Indiana can already boast a 6-3 straight up record away from home the last two seasons and has covered seven straight as road dogs since dating back to the start of the 2018.

Indiana vs. Iowa Pick

Indiana is wholly capable of pulling off this small upset and making a push for the top spot in the Big Ten East, as they host Ohio St. in late October. With some strong value in play, skip the points and go for the moneyline play.

Our Pick: Indiana +150 (PointsBet)

Purdue (+7) to Cover Against Oregon State

Purdue has been snakebitten with injuries the last two seasons and is surely capable of more than its 6-12 record across those campaigns might indicate. However, this could be a tricky opener for the Boilermakers as they are laying a big number to an undervalued Oregon St. team with six close losses across the last two seasons.

Oregon St. returns 10 offensive and nine defensive starters from a team that covered both of their road spreads last season.

Those two covers made it eight straight ATS wins away from home for Oregon St., dating back to the beginning of 2019, a season in which the Beavers won three Pac-12 road games. Oregon St. is also 4-2 ATS against non-conference foes across the last three year and faces a Purdue group that is just 1-5 straight up against non-conference opponents during that same timespan.

In fact, the Big Ten falls into a larger negative trend against Pac-12 competition, producing just a 23-30-2 ATS record since the 2005 season, including just a 11-17-2 ATS mark as favorites.

Making matters worse, Purdue is just 5-11 straight up in its first game of a season against non-conference Power Five schools since 1980. Purdue lost both its 2018 and 2019 season openers as favorites, the former being a home loss to Northwestern. The Boilermakers are also just 1-7 ATS as home favorites overall in the last three seasons and finished 2020 with five straight ATS losses.

Purdue vs. Oregon State Pick

A team that is just 7-11 straight up at home the last three seasons and 18-34 straight up here across the last eight years has little business laying a touchdown or more to any Power Five school.

Our Pick: Purdue +7 

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