Everything you need to know about this weekend’s B1G slate.

Game of the Week: Nebraska at Iowa (-13.5)

The stakes

The Heroes Trophy. And in a broader, sentimental sense — the feeling of normalcy. In a strange year, playing this game on Black Friday matters. Thanksgiving Week is normally filled with all sorts of fun matchups, but due to the pandemic, Ohio State/Michigan, Indiana/Purdue and Northwestern/Illinois were pushed to December. Then the news broke on Tuesday that the battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe was canceled because of COVID issues, meaning the Big Ten’s longest running rivalry of Minnesota and Wisconsin won’t be played for the first time since 1907.

That means the Big Ten’s second-oldest rivalry takes on some added importance. Iowa (3-2) and Nebraska (1-3) first squared off in 1891, making it the second-longest tenured rivalry behind only Minnesota and Wisconsin (1890). The rivalry was re-branded when Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011. So while the Big Ten has no shortage of trophy games (it has 15!), you realize how important they are in a year like this.

As for the game itself, it’s cliche but these border states don’t like one another. Last year’s ending, featuring Iowa kicker Keith Duncan blowing a kiss to the Nebraska sideline after nailing the game-winning field goal, is more fuel for the fire. Even if this game could be lopsided, all the turkey in the world couldn’t make these teams or their fan bases sleepwalk through this one.

The stat: 223.3

That’s how many rushing yards per game Nebraska allows, which puts the Huskers run defense at 115th nationally. The Huskers are coming off a game in which they allowed Illinois to run for 285 yards. Illini running back Mike Epstein needed just 13 carries to tie his career-best of 113 yards, and Chase Brown added 110. It’s been a discouraging development for a defense that earned praise following the way it bottled up Ohio State’s running backs in the opener.

The recent slide in stopping the run is terrible timing because Iowa’s entire offensive philosophy has evolved into giving the ball to running backs Tyler Goodson and Mekhi Sargent. Because of the way QB Spencer Petras struggled early on, Iowa took the ball out of his hands and leaned on its running backs and offensive line. Over the last 3 weeks, the Hawkeyes’ 636 rushing yards are second in the Big Ten, and they have 12 rushing scores during the span. Iowa boasts one of the best centers in the country in Tyler Linderbaum and one of the best tackles in Alaric Jackson.

The big question(s): Does either team crack 150 yards passing? And does Iowa even need to?

These are 2 of the worst passing teams in the country, both statistically and by the eye test. Nebraska ranks 117th nationally in passer rating, and Iowa is worse at 118th.

Iowa’s Spencer Petras has struggled early on, and Iowa probably put too much on his plate so early in his career. The sophomore threw 39 and 50 passes in his first 2 games, but he is averaging just 25 attempts the last 3 weeks. Don’t forget, he attempted 50 passes against Northwestern even though the Hawkeyes jumped out to a 17-0 lead.

Nebraska’s duo of Luke McCaffrey and Adrian Martinez has combined to throw 2 TD passes and 6 interceptions, making  Nebraska one of three teams in the country (Air Force and Utah State) to have 2 or fewer TD passes through 4 or more games. And neither of them was a thing of beauty. The most recent was a broken play in which Martinez scrambled and the 2 receivers collided. The first was a shovel pass that was technically a forward pass.

Petras and McCaffrey are 2 of the 3 B1G QBs with more INTs than TD passes (Rocky Lombardi is the other).

Side note: It had to sting just a little for Huskers fans watching former Nebraska QB Noah Vedral throw for 383 yards in Rutgers’ 3-OT loss to Michigan.

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The verdict

For my money, this is the biggest mismatch of the week — on paper. I would’ve said the same thing about Michigan and Michigan State earlier this season, for the record, and we saw how that one went. Sometimes in rivalry games, the result doesn’t make sense.

That said, it’s hard to fathom how Nebraska hangs with Iowa. The Hawkeyes love this game, just like Ohio State loves the Michigan game, so I can’t imagine they overlook Nebraska despite being a 2-touchdown favorite.

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Iowa 41, Nebraska 13

Penn State at Michigan (-2)

The two biggest underachievers of 2020 meet in a matchup that was supposed to be a battle for second place in the East. Instead, their combined winning percentage of .200 is by far the worst of this week’s games. To be fair, both programs have been ravaged by opt-outs and injuries to their best players, but if any rosters could withstand that bad luck, it was supposed to be these two (and Ohio State). Their depth charts are still chock full of former 4-star recruits who give them a supposed talent advantage in almost every matchup.

That fact that Penn State is 0-5 is kind of amazing. The Nittany Lions rank in the top 4 in the Big Ten in total offense (418 yards per game) and total defense (360 yards per game), buoyed by the fact that they have lost twice when outgaining their opponent by over 200 yards. Penn State is still No. 29 in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, one spot lower than undefeated Northwestern.

Michigan will likely give redshirt freshman Cade McNamara his first career start after he led the comeback at Rutgers. How will he handle the pressure of being the guy and not just the spark off the bench?

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Penn State 31, Michigan 27

Maryland at Indiana (-12)

This is a huge game for Indiana (4-1). Just in terms of the psyche, it is flying high after coming close against Ohio State, as everyone in the media is rightfully giving the Hoosiers the respect they deserve. But it’s important to stay focused on the task at hand, and we’ll see how good Indiana is in that regard.

Indiana was never going to the CFP, but it has so much to gain over the next 3 weeks, with Wisconsin and Purdue still to go. The Hoosiers have a legit chance at a New Year’s Six bowl. Think of the momentum they can generate for the program for the long haul if they can pull that off. I’m sure Tom Allen is well aware.

I contemplated making this the Game of the Week, as it is the only game this week featuring two teams over .500. At the same time, though, I have no idea what Maryland (2-1) will look like after nearly 3 weeks between games due to a COVID outbreak. Wisconsin showed no ill effects when it thumped Michigan following its hiatus, but I’m not so sure Maryland is built to overcome that in the same way. And that’s a shame, because the Terrapins really built some momentum after a tough opener. This Indiana defense, which picked off Justin Fields 3 times last week, is not the way for Taulia Tagovailoa and Maryland to ease back into things.

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Indiana 34, Maryland 17

Northwestern (-13.5) at Michigan State

This looks like a complete mismatch on paper, as Northwestern (5-0) is coming off a huge win over Wisconsin and Michigan State has 7 points total in its last 2 games. But it isn’t unreasonable to think the Spartans can keep it relatively close. Northwestern hasn’t blown out anyone since the opener, as its last 4 wins have been by an average of 6.5 points. For a team that hasn’t topped 27 points since the season opener, 13.5 points is a big spread.

The Wildcats have really struggled to run the ball. Over their last 4 games, they are averaging just 98.5 rushing yards per game at 2.4 yards per attempt. Even after abandoning the run early against Wisconsin, they still rank third in the Big Ten in rushing attempts, yet are just 11th in yards per attempt (3.3). Given Northwestern’s struggles offensively — calling it an average offense is generous — Michigan State may have to score just once to cover.

That said, Michigan State leads the Big Ten in turnovers (14) and Northwestern leads the Big Ten in takeaways (15). This game has U-G-L-Y written all over it.

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Northwestern 20, Michigan State 7

Rutgers at Purdue (-12.5)

Aidan O’Connell is reportedly out for a second straight week, but does it even matter for Purdue? Jack Plummer was clearly not the reason Purdue lost to Minnesota. The blame lies with the defense and refs. Rondale Moore and David Bell are superior weapons to anything Michigan has, and the Wolverines had no trouble putting up 35 points in the final 3 quarters at Rutgers.

– – –

Purdue 44, Rutgers 23

Ohio State (-28.5) at Illinois

Poor Illinois, as it gets the short straw in facing Ohio State after the Buckeyes narrowly got by Indiana and had to hear all week about how their defense could prevent them from winning a national title. That said, the Illini are coming off an impressive performance in which they absolutely dominated Nebraska. Brandon Peters looked great against the Huskers, throwing for 205 yards and a TD while completing 72 percent of his passes.

– – –

Ohio State 45, Illinois 21

Scoreboard

Week 5 record: 3-3 straight-up / 3-3 vs. spread
Season record: 15-16 straight-up / 13-18 vs. spread