ESPN's FPI predicts outcome of Iowa-Northwestern game

What was once a stranglehold on the Big Ten West has faded for the Iowa Hawkeyes. Losers of back-to-back games against Purdue and Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes have seen the race for the divisional crown open right back up in recent weeks.

A dream ride to start the year—6-0, a No. 2 ranking in the AP poll at one point—has come back to reality a bit for Iowa. Purdue upset the Hawkeyes in Iowa City 24-7 on Oct. 16. A bye week did the team no favors as its offense put up another clunker of a performance in a 27-7 loss to Wisconsin on the road last Saturday.

Now, the Hawkeyes have a road trip to face Northwestern in Evanston. Though the Wildcats are down this year, Iowa is just 1-4 against Pat Fitzgerald’s squad in the last 5 seasons.

Still, ESPN’s FPI gives Iowa an 81.2% chance of coming out with a win. The Hawkeyes still sit favorably in ESPN’s model (15th overall) thanks to a highly-rated defense (3rd nationally).

But, Iowa’s defense and team have gone largely this season as far as its turnover-producing machine takes it. Through the team’s first 6 games, the Hawkeyes forced 20 takeaways. Against Maryland on Oct. 1, the Hawkeye defense flummoxed Terp quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, picking him off 6 times. A week later, it picked off 4 Penn State passes.

And while the defense feasted, the offense was careful. Iowa had just 5 giveaways in those first 6 games.

Things have flipped in the team’s last 2 losses. Iowa has turned the ball over 7 times (4 interceptions, 3 fumbles) and produced only a single fumble recovery against Purdue. Without the help in field position, the offense has dried up. Against Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes averaged 2.8 yards per play.

Northwestern (3-5, 1-4 Big Ten) is even in the turnover department this season—12 giveaways, 12 takeaways. It’ll look to try and keep that going against the Hawkeyes.

The two meet for a night game Saturday at Ryan Field, with kickoff set for 7 p.m. ET on BTN.