Three Reasons Western Michigan Will Put a Scare Into Michigan
Historically speaking, Michigan has dominated Western Michigan, winning all seven head-to-head meetings and covering all five since 2002. They managed this despite laying 13 or more points each time. Furthermore, WMU has been a horror show in road openers across the last 15 seasons, amassing an embarrassing 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS record in that span. However, there are several signs indicating that all could change this season and the Broncos could test the Wolverines far more than the 17-point spread indicates they might.
Despite a big point spread, the in-state season opener could be closer than expected, so let’s take a look at three reasons Western Michigan will put a scare into the Wolverines in this Week 1 matchup.
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1. Tricky Scheduling Situation
Michigan enters this season with head coach Jim Harbaugh firmly on the hot seat after finishing 2-4 last fall. His team lost all three home games last season, averaging 17.3 ppg and never topping 24 points, a number that wouldn’t be enough to cover this spread if WMU manages even one touchdown.
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Meanwhile, the Wolverines haven’t covered a home game since November of 2019, managing four straight home SU and ATS losses since. They also enter play having dropped five straight games against the spread and have not won a game in regulation since their opener last season, which also happened to be away from Ann Arbor.
Michigan brought in a new defensive coordinator in Mike Macdonald, who comes from the NFL as a position coach with the Ravens. Still ,he has never been a DC in his career. Tasked with immediately remedying a defense with seven returning starters that allowed 34.5 points, 179 rushing yards, and 256 passing yards per game, all easily the worst during Harbaugh’s tenure, is a a tall order.
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Adding onto the pile, Michigan draws Washington next week, a team that won the Pac-12 North last season and figures to be even better this fall. Western Michigan lacks a similar look-ahead spot and can focus wholly on this matchup, knowing they host FCS opponent Illinois St. next, a team that went 1-3 last spring before nixing their final four games for player safety due to injuries and COVID-19.
With all of this in mind, logic should dictate that Michigan realizes the most important takeaway from this game is a victory, not covering of an immense spread.
2. Matchup Concerns for the Maize and Blue
Western Michigan returns 10 defensive and nine offensive starters from last year’s 4-2 team that was a few key moments from a potential MAC Championship opportunity.
The Broncos bring back their quarterback (Kaleb Eleby), top running back (La’Darius Jefferson), and two of their top three wide receivers (Skyy Moore and Jaylen Hall) from an offense that piled up 41.7 points per game (tied for ninth in FBS) and 480 yards per game (16th in FBS). A Michigan defense that allowed 24 or more points in every game last season (34.5 ppg) and seven straight dating back to 2019 should allow Eleby’s offense enough scoring drives to stay within this spread.
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The Broncos also have several Power 5 transfers into their secondary (from Pitt and Illinois), giving some big school perspective that should help wash away the mystique of playing against highly-recruited guys in a packed Big House. WMU boasts one of the best defensive lines and secondaries in the MAC, as well as a Third-Team All-MAC punter, and should be able to make enough plays against a Michigan offense led by Cade McNamara, who will make his first home start for the Wolverines.
3. Troublesome Trends for the Big Ten
Yes, Michigan is 33-1 SU all-time against the MAC. However, winning isn’t covering and the talent gap between these two programs is not its typical immense gulf.
Despite having proven over time that they can win games against a Group of Five conference like the MAC, Michigan has some nasty trends working against it here.
The Wolverines have not covered a game against a non-Power Five school since the 2018 season. They have two wins, but they came by just three points as a 22-point favorite and by 19 points as a 34-point favorite. Their last cover outside of the Power Five actually came against this Western Michigan program, a 49-3 beat down.
Despite the lack of success WMU has had in road openers, it is certainly worth noting that it is a very respectable 10-9 SU and 11-8 ATS versus non-conference opponents across the last five years and 24-17 ATS across the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile, Michigan is just 3-9 ATS against non-conference opponents in the last five seasons, including 1-5 ATS in its last six attempts.
Going back further, Michigan has covered just 14 of their 39 games against non-conference foes over the last decade. Finally, there is this — teams from the Big Ten are just 31-50 ATS since 2005 as favorites of 20 points or less when hosting a MAC opponent.
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