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Aidan Chiles is a key piece of Michigan State’s new-look quarterback room under Jonathan Smith. He’s the likely favorite to become the starting QB this fall, and his reasons for coming to East Lansing stand out.
On Tuesday, Chiles addressed the media and discussed following Smith from Oregon State. A former 4-star recruit, Chiles saw limited playing time as a freshman for the Beavers before Smith was hired by the Spartans.
Ultimately, the decision to head to East Lansing was an easy one:
“The process of me actually getting here was a very easy decision for me. It was my coach,” explained Chiles.
He went on to say he picked Oregon State as a program but grew close to Smith throughout his freshman year. Chiles wanted to keep that bond going when Smith took the job at MSU.
“I committed to Oregon State as a program first, and then throughout the entire freshman year, I had conversations with Coach Smith the whole time,” said Chiles. “We just got closer, a closer bond, and he’s my coach, that’s why I followed him here.”
Aidan Chiles spoke publicly for the first time since transferring to Michigan State with Jonathan Smith.
“That’s my coach. I committed to Oregon State as a program at first,” the QB said. “We just got closer, a closer bond. And he’s my coach. So that’s why I followed him here.” pic.twitter.com/Wx0CmNabc7
— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) March 27, 2024
Chiles joins an MSU program looking to turn things around after a 9-16 mark the past two seasons and the off-field debacle involving former head coach Mel Tucker. Things will not be easy in the deeper Big Ten, but fans can track all the odds for the 2024 season with Tradition’s sports betting in Ohio links and apps.
Why Chiles’ reasons matters
Chiles confirming his transfer is heavily related to Smith’s coaching is a reminder that every transfer is sometimes different. In this era of massive NIL deals and Kadyn Proctor’s Iowa-to-Alabama about face, Chiles opted to follow the bond with his coach.
To be clear: Chiles will likely net his fair share of NIL deals in East Lansing if he performs well, but the driving force matters. And his bond with Smith should bode well for the offense in 2024.
Last season, Michigan State endured one of the worst offensive seasons in quite some time while averaging 15.9 points per game. That mark ranked 131st out of 133 FBS teams.
Along the way, the Spartans played 4 different QBs and saw every scholarship QB (Katin Houser, Noah Kim and Sam Leavitt) exit the program via the transfer portal. Following up that type of performance by pairing Chiles with Smith is a massive win.
A QB alone cannot fix the problems in East Lansing, but Chiles sounds like a difference-maker who selected the Spartans for all the right reasons. Now, he’s giving a bit of hope to a fanbase entering Smith’s first season in East Lansing.
Brad Underwood turned things around quickly at Illinois. March Madness success did not immediately follow, but after adapting in recent seasons, Underwood has his team on the verge of a massive breakthrough.
When Underwood arrived in Champaign ahead of the 2017-18 season, the Illini had not been to the Big Dance since 2013. That 4-year drought would extend through Underwood’s first two seasons in Illinois before the COVID cancellation of 2020.
That year, Illinois finished 21st overall in the final AP Poll, so the Illini were going to be in the final field no matter what. Fortunately, the positive results in the regular season continued in 2020-21.
Illinois punched a 1-seed in 2021 as the B1G Tournament champs, and a shared regular-season title in 2022 earned the program a 4-seed. Unfortunately, second-round exits plagued the Illini as the growth of the transfer portal started to take a toll.
Underwood’s early success was built on elite recruiting with key pieces Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu starring for the Illini. Then, with multiple players hitting the transfer portal out, Underwood turned his attention to the transfer portal to find star power coming into the program.
Key portal pieces and their impact
Beginning in the 2022 offseason, Underwood began his more aggressive approach to the transfer portal. No longer was he looking for role players and complementary pieces, Underwood hit the portal with difference-makers in mind.
It started with a group that included Terrence Shannon Jr., Matthew Mayer and Dain Dainja. Every player in that group averaged 9+ points per game last season while Shannon has been the leading scorer for the program 2 years running.
This past offseason, Underwood dipped back into the portal for Marcus Domask, Quincy Guerrier and Justin Harmon. Harmon has been the epitome of a strong role player, but Domask and Guerrier have started all 36 games this season entering the Sweet 16.
From those newer additions, Guerrier has averaged 9.8 points anad 6.2 rebounds while Domask has averaged 16.1 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists and also delivered an NCAA Tournament triple-double. Underwood has also altered his playing style with those new pieces, and it has paid off.
Instead of playing a traditional frontcourt, Underwood has often played Coleman Hawkins or Dainja as the main big man on the floor at a time. Surrounding those big men, Underwood has utilized a heavy 6-wing rotation, including 4 players that shoot better than 36% from 3-point range.
The new focus on the portal and shift in playing style has resulted in the No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom. Now, Underwood pits that style against Iowa State in an elite Sweet 16 matchup of contrasting styles. Be sure to track the latest odds for the rest of March Madness with Tradition’s Ohio sportsbooks.
Everything from here on out will be a tough fight for every team, and Illinois is no different. The Illini could make it to the Final Four, but whether or not they do, one truth stands out from this season.
Underwood was quick to embrace and be aggressive in this era of portal movers, and he’s made it work in masterful fashion for Illinois.
The Sweet 16 is set to begin on Thursday night with Clemson taking on Arizona in the first game of the round.
The first 2 rounds of the NCAA Tournament were exciting as always, but they only produced a couple of major upsets. Every No. 1 and No. 2 seed made it into the second weekend of the Big Dance.
Favorites were particularly profitable in the round of 32 when they went 15-1 straight up and 11-5 against the spread. That’s something to keep in mind as the Sweet 16 tips off on Thursday night.
Here are my against-the-spread picks for the Sweet 16:
Note: All spreads via Bet365 unless otherwise noted:
Thursday, March 28
6 Clemson vs. 2 Arizona | 7:09 p.m. ET | Los Angeles, California | CBS
Spread: Arizona -7
Clemson needed 2 upsets — and a lot of shooting luck — to get to this game. New Mexico and Baylor shot just 19% from 3-point range against the Tigers last weekend, and I’m not sure that kind of luck is going to continue in this spot against Arizona.
However, the Wildcats have struggled a bit more down the stretch and even appeared to be on the ropes a little bit vs. Long Beach State in the first round. According to EvanMiya’s relative ratings index, Clemson has performed at an elite level vs. the best teams in the country this season. I think Arizona will probably end up winning this game, but I like Clemson to keep it close.
Pick: Clemson +7.5 (via FanDuel)
5 San Diego State vs. 1 UConn | 7:39 p.m. ET | Boston, Massachusetts | TBS/truTV
Spread: UConn -11
UConn has looked like a buzz-saw pretty much since the start of last year’s NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have now won 8 straight NCAA Tournament games by double digits dating back to last year’s title run, and Vegas is expecting that streak to continue vs. SDSU. Of course, this game against the Aztecs will be a rematch of last year’s national title game, which UConn won 76-59.
Ultimately, I think this is too many points for the Huskies. San Diego State has the No. 8 defense in the country according to KenPom’s efficiency metric, which should allow the Aztecs to keep this game within single digits.
Pick: San Diego State +11
4 Alabama vs. 1 North Carolina | After Clemson/Arizona game | Los Angeles, California | CBS
Spread: North Carolina -4
North Carolina enters this game on a hot streak, having won 10 of its last 11 games overall. Alabama struggled down the stretch of the season and needed a late charge to get past Grand Canyon in the round of 32.
Alabama’s defense is a big weakness. Since Feb. 1, the Tide’s defense ranks 141st nationally per BartTorvik’s defensive efficiency rankings. I’m not moved by Alabama’s 86.5 defensive rating against Grand Canyon — the Lopes made it easy on Alabama by choosing to not run any sets. North Carolina plays with structure, which is something the Tide have not handled well this season. It’s hard to imagine betting on Alabama in this spot given its struggles on that end of the floor.
Pick: North Carolina -3.5 (via FanDuel)
States: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY
3 Illinois vs. 2 Iowa State | After San Diego State/UConn game | Boston, Massachusetts | TBS/truTV
Spread: Iowa State -1.5
Like Alabama, Illinois has also struggled mightily on the defensive end lately. But unlike Alabama, Illinois has one of the best scorers in the country in Terrance Shannon Jr. to make up for it. Shannon has scored 25+ points in 6 straight games and is averaging 27.1 points per game since Feb. 10.
Shannon and Illinois’ offense will be put to the test against Iowa State, who owns the nation’s No. 1 defense according to KenPom. It’s been more than a month since Iowa State gave up more than 1 point per possession (which last happened against Houston on Feb. 19). It’s tempting to take the elite offense, but I’m siding with the Cyclones in this spot.
Pick: Iowa State -1.5
Friday, March 29
11 NC State vs. 2 Marquette | 7:09 p.m. ET | Dallas, Texas | CBS
Spread: Marquette -6.5
Marquette battled some injury woes down the stretch of the season, but things appear to be coming together at the right time for the Golden Eagles. Marquette got past a really good Colorado team in the round of 32 and now has an opportunity to get to the Elite Eight without facing a single-digit seed.
NC State needed a miracle run at the ACC Tournament to even reach the Big Dance, and now finds itself in the Sweet 16 after winning a couple more close games. I think this is where NC State’s Cinderella story comes to an end — Marquette is too good and too ruthless to allow it to continue. I like the Golden Eagles by double digits.
Pick: Marquette -6.5
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5 Gonzaga vs. 1 Purdue | 7:39 p.m. ET | Detroit, Michigan | TBS/truTV
Spread: Purdue -5.5
This is an Elite Eight-quality game taking place in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga is a 5-seed, but the Bulldogs will enter this game as the No. 12 team in the country, per KenPom’s rankings. They haven’t lost to anyone besides Saint Mary’s since Jan. 11. They have good enough guard play to punish Purdue’s drop coverage. Gonzaga also has plenty of size to throw at Zach Edey and has no obvious weaknesses on either side of the ball. I see this as pretty close to a matchup nightmare for the Boilermakers and will gladly take the points with Gonzaga.
Pick: Gonzaga +5.5
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4 Duke vs. 1 Houston | After NC State/Marquette game | Dallas, Texas | CBS
Spread: Houston -4
Houston needed overtime to avoid an epic collapse against Texas A&M in the round of 32. Meanwhile, Duke took care of business in dominant fashion over the weekend with big wins over Vermont and James Madison. Houston will be a different kind of test, however, as the Blue Devils will go from facing double-digit seeds to one of the very best teams in the country. Houston proved itself over and over again in a tough Big 12 this season, and I’m backing the Cougars to make a statement against Duke in this spot.
Pick: Houston -3.5 (via BetMGM)
3 Creighton vs. 2 Tennessee | After Gonzaga/Purdue game | Detroit, Michigan | TBS/truTV
Spread: Tennessee -3
These teams are pretty close in terms of quality, but only one of them has Dalton Knecht. The All-American was quiet against Texas — which almost cost the Vols their season — but I think he’ll be ready to go in the Sweet 16 against Creighton. The Blue Jays are amongst the worst teams in the entire country in terms of forcing turnovers and getting to the foul line. Creighton’s offense generates nearly 40% of its offense from behind the 3-point line, and the Vols had a top-30 3-point percentage defense nationally in 2023-24. This doesn’t seem like a great matchup for the Blue Jays.
Pick: Tennessee -2.5 (via FanDuel)
States: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY
Matt Painter’s Boilermakers have been in this position before.
In 2019, they were within seconds of advancing to the Final Four — Purdue’s first since 1980 — when Virginia miraculously turned a backcourt tip into a 10-foot jumper in only 3 seconds left to tie at the buzzer, before winning in overtime in an Elite Eight thriller. In ’22, Purdue faced Cinderella Saint Peter’s in the Sweet 16, seemingly being dealt a greased pathway to at least the regional final, but couldn’t find a way to make the clock strike midnight on the Peacocks.
And those are only the most recent opportunities. Painter has advanced the Boilermakers to the Sweet 16 during 5 of the past 7 tournaments, laying waste to the inaccurate narrative that Purdue is a consistent first-weekend flameout. Until this season, when No. 1-seed Purdue vanquished 16-seed Grambling on Friday, double-digit seeds had been a problem, regardless of where it encountered them, with loses to North Texas, Saint Peter’s and FDU in consecutive seasons. But the Boilermakers are unlikely to lose to a double-digit seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament — only 1 remains in 11-seed NC State — and they hope to not lose at all. They might not, either. FanDuel lists the Boilers’ odds to win it all at +550, tied for the 2nd-best odds among the 16 teams left.
States: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY
Perhaps this season gives Purdue its best opportunity. Maybe it’s good that for the Boilermakers to reach the Final Four, they’ll do so against (mostly) Midwest Region chalk, facing 5-seed Gonzaga at 7:39 p.m. ET Friday night in Detroit, then either 2-seed Tennessee or 3-seed Creighton in the regional final. There won’t be a Mean Green or a Peacock or a Knight (or a Ram, like years ago when Purdue ran into Shaka Smart’s upstart VCU squad) to erect an unlikely roadblock.
No, Purdue knows what it’s up against. The Boilermakers are 7-0 against the Sweet 16 field this season, including Maui Invitational wins against the Zags and the Volunteers. But that was far back in November, and things have changed since then. Certainly, they have for the Bulldogs, who suffered through a mid-season malaise that saw them potentially on the brink of missing the tourney for the first time in two-and-a-half decades before they recovered at the end of the season. Gonzaga might not have the pros as in seasons past, but they have veterans — and a Hall of Fame coach in Mark Few — and won 8 straight games at the end of the regular-season (and 13 of 14) before falling to St. Mary’s in the West Coast Conference Tournament finale. During the stretch, Gonzaga’s offense was one of the most efficient in the country while averaging about 90 points per game.
But the Boilermakers, who beat the ‘Zags 73-63 on Nov. 20, are different, too. The emergence of freshman Myles Colvin during the NCAA Tournament has added an element to the Boilermakers’ second unit that Purdue had lacked during much of the regular season. The slow burn of the dynamic scorer’s growth this season is paying off right now, as Colvin played 26 minutes of the bench in the Boilermakers’ 2 NCAA wins last weekend, grabbing 3 rebounds and 3 assists in the opening-round win over Grambling, then scoring 9 on 3 3-pointers in the 2nd-round victory over Utah St.
If there’s an X-factor for the Boilermakers in Detroit, then perhaps it’s Colvin. He has taken rotation minutes from veteran defender Ethan Morton, who was a starter a year ago but gave that role up to Lance Jones when he transferred in from Southern Illinois. But with Colvin, Purdue’s 2s, which usually play for a stretch midway through the 1st half then potentially again early in the 2nd, give the Boilermakers an almost completely different look than the starters. And it’s showing to be a winning combination.
Against Utah State, big man Zach Edey played only 27 minutes and scored only 2 of Purdue’s 47 2nd-half points, yet the Boilermakers pulled away. Why? Purdue got a scoring boost from starters Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer, but the Jones-Colvin-Camden Heide group also spurred a run. The trio can match the athleticism of about anyone an opponent can put on the floor, a characteristic not many Purdue teams in the past have been able to claim.
This is the Boilermakers’ best chance at a Final Four, better even than in 2010 when Robbie Hummel’s knee injury in late February handicapped a deep NCAA run. It’s better than 2018, when then 2-seed Purdue lost center Isaac Haas to a “hook and hold” elbow injury in the opening-round. Better than a year later, when the Carsen Edwards-led 3rd-seeded Boilermakers came within a tenth-of-a-second from beating Virginia in one of the greatest Elite Eight games of all time. Better than when 3-seed Purdue lost to the Peacocks, and better than last season’s too-Edey-reliant No. 1 seed.
But nothing is a given, particularly in a Detroit region in which all 4 teams might feel like fate owes them one. Tennessee has never reached a Final Four, and Rick Barnes would love a return trip, after his only previous appearance with Texas in 2003. Few’s Gonzaga squads, once an NCAA Cinderella but now a mainstay, want another chance at a championship, after falling in the championship games in 2017 and ’21. A year ago, Greg McDermott’s Bluejays came within a couple points of beating San Diego State for a trip to their first-ever Final Four.
But the Boilermakers, after years of hardship (whether injury or upset), feels it’s their time. Maybe so.
NJ, PA, VA, MD, WV, MA, KS, KY, LA, TN, CO, AZ, IA, IL, IN, MI, OH
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Caitlin Clark has broken numerous records, especially during her senior season. With career and single-season points records checked off the list, it might seem like there aren’t many records left for her to reclaim. TV ratings appear to be the last frontier for Clark and the Hawkeyes as Iowa marches on in the Women’s NCAA Tournament.
On Tuesday, ESPN shared that Iowa’s NCAA Tournament game against Holy Cross on Saturday drew 3.2 million viewers on ABC, the most ever for a first-round game. It’s also the most ever for a pre-Final Four Women’s NCAA Tournament game.
Fans tuned in to First Round #NCAAWBB #MarchMadness on ESPN platforms
🏀 Most-consumed First Rd on record (1.5B total mins)
🏀 Iowa/Holy Cross: 3.2M viewers, most-viewed First Rd game on record
🏀 UConn/Jackson State: 1.1M viewers, 3rd most-viewed First Rd game on record pic.twitter.com/QpBqg7oNkC— ESPN PR (@ESPNPR) March 26, 2024
The pre-Final Four record had a short lifespan. Just 2 days after delivering 3.2 million viewers for ABC, ESPN drew 4.9 million viewers for Iowa’s second-round win over West Virginia.
On Saturday, Iowa set a viewership record for a non-Final Four game with 3.23 million viewers taking in Iowa-Holy Cross on ABC.
It took exactly 48 hours for the Hawkeyes to break that record as 4.9 million tuned in to ESPN for Iowa-West Virginia in the second-round. https://t.co/u4vN3Mc8zI
— Chantel Jennings (@ChantelJennings) March 26, 2024
More ratings records should be on the way
Up next for Clark and the 1-seed Hawkeyes is a game against 5-seed Colorado.
The West Virginia game showed that while Clark is a bona fide superstar, Iowa as a team is vulnerable. WVU’s attacking, physical defense kept a team that averages over 90 points per game in the low 60s.
It was far from Clark’s best night, as she shot just 8-of-22 from the floor. With 5 triples and multiple free throws, Clark finished with 32 points, half her team’s total.
The fact that Clark carried her team to a dramatic victory is likely to draw in more casual fans that are warming to women’s college basketball thanks to Clark and others.
If Iowa gets past Colorado, it could set up a matchup that would shatter Women’s NCAA Tournament Elite 8 viewing records. LSU awaits in the bracket as a 3-seed.
If the Tigers can defeat 2-seed UCLA on Saturday, it would set up a rematch of last year’s championship game. When ESPN can use Clark, Angel Reese and Kim Mulkey in promos, it’s safe to say the ratings will follow.
Clark and the Hawkeyes, obviously, aren’t focused on breaking ratings records as they have a national championship to win. As the records fall, though, it adds to Clark’s legacy of growing the game and bringing more attention to Iowa as a team.
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Iowa is moving on to the Sweet 16.
The 1-seed Hawkeyes found themselves in a defensive battle with 8-seed West Virginia on Monday night in Iowa City.
WVU sought to send Caitlin Clark packing, and the Mountaineers had the chance at the upset thanks to their physical, attacking defense.
The game was tied 52-52 with 2:55 to go, but Clark and the Hawkeyes pulled away down the stretch, and foul trouble caught up to West Virginia.
Here are 3 quick takeaways from the game:
A legend says farewell
While Senior Day was celebrated as Clark’s “last home game,” Monday’s game was Clark’s true Carver-Hawkeye Arena farewell. Those who have watched Clark knew she wasn’t going to let Iowa’s NCAA Tournament end in a home upset.
WVU had Iowa not looking like it usual self on offense. Clark, however, was not to be contained on her final night playing in front of the home Hawkeye crowd.
It wasn’t Clark’s best shooting night (8-of-22 field goals), but she scored half of her team’s points. Clark finished with 32 points, securing the single-season NCAA record at 1,013 points (and counting) in the 2023-24.
On a night not everything went as planned, Clark would not be denied a win in her home finale, and a return to the Sweet 16.
Caitlin Clark’s last crowd pump at Kinnick pic.twitter.com/Vm8rO69UAT
— Heavens! (@HeavensFX) March 26, 2024
WVU defense dominates, Iowa displays some defense of its own
West Virginia’s defense was the story of the game, slowing an Iowa offense that averages over 92 points per game to just 64. The Mountaineers forced 15 turnovers, turning it into 19 points.
Iowa is used to beating opponents by lighting up the scoreboard. The Hawkeyes answered WVU’s dominant defense by playing some defense of their own.
Entering Monday, Iowa opponents averaged 71.7 points per game. While the Hawkeye defense benefitted from the change in pace, Iowa also showed some defensive improvement.
Season averages for Iowa opponents are 39.9% shooting from the field, making 26.3 field goals per game. The Mountaineers shot 3%, making 21-of-62 field-goal attempts.
WVU looked to the 3-ball, but shot just 26% from beyond the arc, making just 9-of-34 triples.
3-point shooting will have to be better, involve more players
Iowa shot 22 3-point attempts on Monday night. Caitlin Clark finished 5-of-14 from 3-point range. The Hawkeyes finished 5-of-22 from beyond the arc as a team.
Clark was the difference on Monday night in a defensive battle at home against an 8-seed opponent. As the Hawkeyes move on, though, they’re going to need someone besides Clark to make a 3-pointer in the Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final Four.
No. 5-seed Colorado is up next, as a potential rematch with 3-seed LSU. If Clark is the only Hawkeye with a 3-pointer, Iowa will likely be in trouble.
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The opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament featured some chaos, but it wasn’t quite madness.
Kentucky lost to a 14, but the Wildcats were fatally flawed. Saint Mary’s lost to a 12, but Grand Canyon was a strong 12 and Alabama ended the run in the second round. Kansas almost lost to a 13. Auburn did lose to a 13. And Wisconsin lost to an equally strong 12, but Duke dispatched the James Madison Dukes in the second round.
All 4 No. 1 seeds made it through unscathed. In the first round, the top seeds won by an average of 33.8 points. In the second round, they won by an average of 19.3 points. (Purdue made up for Houston’s overtime escape.)
From 2005-09, every single one of the No. 1 seeds made it out of their respective opening weekends. This year’s occurrence marks just the fourth time it has happened since (in 13 tournaments).
Beyond that, every 2-seed is still standing as well. It’s only the second tournament since 2009 where each of the top 8 teams all advanced past the opening weekend.
In each of the 4 regions, 3 of the top 4 seeds all advanced to the Sweet 16. After a regular season where top-10 teams were dropping like flies on a weekly basis, we’ve had a very chalky postseason.
The closest facsimile would be 2019, when the top 4 seeds all made it out of the East and West Regions, the top 3 seeds and a 5 made it out of the Midwest, and the top 3 seeds and a 12 made it out of the South. That year’s Final Four featured a 1-seed (Virginia, the champ), a 2-seed, a 3-seed (Texas Tech, the runner-up), and a 5-seed.
This year, we have a pair of 5-seeds (San Diego State, Gonzaga), a 6-seed (Clemson), and an 11-seed (NC State) trying to crash the party.
So with the Sweet 16 days away, let’s reseed everyone. And just a note: I don’t care about logistics the way a committee putting together a field would, I’m only interested in ranking the remaining teams 1-16.
Related: Want to bet on the rest of the NCAA Tournament? Saturday Tradition has the tools to help you get in on the action at some of the best Ohio sportsbooks to win real money.
1 Purdue Boilermakers (No. 1 overall)
Original: 1-seed (No. 3 overall)
After smashing Grambling behind one of those “I’m still him” performances from Zach Edey, Purdue had perhaps the most impressive performance of the second round. The Boilermakers beat Utah State 106-67 with a surgical performance on the offensive end of the floor and a defense that caused the Aggies to abandon all fundamentals and logic. Utah State’s gameplan was to throw bodies at Edey every time he touched it. In the past, Purdue has fizzled out of the tournament because no one around the POTY did anything. Sunday, the other guys did lots of things.
Trey Kaufman-Renn scored the first 8 points and finished with 18. Purdue hit 11 triples as a team. The Boilermakers had 29 assists on 38 makes. So far this tournament, the Boilermakers have shot 52% from the field, shot 43% from 3, and assisted on 79% of their makes. There is not a more challenging team to stop left in the field.
Purdue is still +600 to win the national championship at FanDuel, with UConn the betting favorite. I’m laying a wager on the team that seems to have figured it out.
1 UConn Huskies (No. 2 overall)
Original: 1-seed (No. 1 overall)
The 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan scored 19 points, grabbed 8 boards, and dished 4 assists in just 20 minutes on the court against Stetson. UConn rolled; it didn’t need the star center to do much more. But he was incredibly efficient with his minutes, nonetheless. Clingan turned around and nearly triple-doubled with points, rebounds, and blocks (!!!) in the 17-point win over Northwestern. He had 14 points, 14 boards, and 8 blocked shots. So far, he’s shooting 78% from the field.
Have fun with that.
UConn peddled through a shooting lull from the 3-point line in the second half on Sunday, but it didn’t matter because they led by 22 points at halftime and stretched the lead to 30 in the first 6:33 of the second half.
1 North Carolina Tar Heels (No. 3 overall)
Original: 1-seed (No. 4 overall)
Elliot Cadeau hasn’t gotten going yet, but the Tar Heels have Armando Bacot and RJ Davis to mitigate that concern. Both have been excellent through the first 2 games — a 90-62 win over Wagner, then an 85-69 win over Michigan State.
Beating Tom Izzo in the tournament is no joke, and the Heels got major contributions from the non-Bacot/Davis parts of their lineup to do so. Cormac Ryan has scored 27 points through his first 2 games and gone 4-of-11 from 3. Harrison Ingram had his most assertive offensive performance (17 points, 6-11 FG) since March 2.
Carolina trailed MSU 26-14 at the 9:37 mark of the first half. Then it embarked on a 23-3 run that flipped the game. The Heels withstood a second-half push and then put the game to bed.
1 Arizona Wildcats (No. 4 overall)
Original: 2-seed (No. 6 overall)
We’ve always known Tommy Lloyd can coach up whirlwind offenses. Arizona has looked the part on that end through its first two games — an 85-65 win over 15-seed Longbeach State and a 78-68 win over 7-seed Dayton. Two questions faced the Wildcats entering the postseason. Which Kylan Boswell were they going to get? And was the defense from the regular season legit?
Boswell scored a game-high 20 points and dished 8 assists in the first round. Better yet? One turnover in 32 minutes. He was quiet in the second-round win, so we’ll see in the Sweet 16 which game was the better indicator.
As for the defense, Long Beach State averaged 0.833 points per possession and shot 18% from 3. Dayton averaged 0.932 points per possession and shot 29% from 3. We’ve got an answer here. And it makes Arizona one of the most dangerous teams in the field.
2 Houston Cougars (No. 5 overall)
Original: 1-seed (No. 2 overall)
This feels like a vulnerable Houston team. Still incredibly talented and capable of winning a title. Just vulnerable. When the Cougars lost by 28 points in the Big 12 Tournament title game, coach Kelvin Sampson said injuries had piled up and taken their toll. When Texas A&M hit a 3 to send Sunday’s second-round game to overtime, Houston was once again in trouble.
Jamal Shead, LJ Cryer, J’Wan Roberts, and Emanuel Sharp all had 2 fouls in the first half. Ja’Vier Francis had 3. Cryer and Francis both fouled out in the second half. Sharp fouled out a minute into the overtime period. Texas A&M took 45 free throws and turned the ball over just 11 times in 45 minutes. Had the Aggies not missed 16 foul shots, we’d be having a different conversation.
Scoring hasn’t been an issue in the tournament for Houston. And Shead is the best individual defender left in the field. But depth is a concern, and if the Cougars are officiated the same way again they won’t be advancing.
2 Duke Blue Devils (No. 6 overall)
Original: 4-seed (No. 13 overall)
Vermont had a scoring drought of 4 minutes and 1 second in its 64-47 opening-round loss to Duke. It also had a scoring drought of 4 minutes and 41 seconds. At one point in the first half, the Catamounts missed 6 straight shots. At the end of the second half, they missed 7 straight. James Madison shot 8-for-20 in the first half of its 93-55 second-round loss to Duke. In the second half, it missed 10 of its final 12 shots.
Kyle Filipowski has scored a total of 17 points on 9 total shots in 2 games and the Blue Devils have won by a combined 55 points. Jared McCain went wild in the James Madison win, scoring 30 points while knocking down 8 (!!!) of his 11 attempts from beyond the arc. While that isn’t something that Duke can lean on every night, the defense absolutely is. The Blue Devils’ first two opponents have averaged 51 points. With a host of contributors on offense, this is a scary team if Filipowski gets it going or McCain stays hot.
ESPN BET has Duke priced at +2200 to win the title — the ninth shortest odds.
2 Tennessee Volunteers (No. 7 overall)
Original: 2-seed (No. 5 overall)
Tennessee’s complete inability to knock down a 3-point shot proved to be its undoing in the SEC Tournament. In an 83-49 opening-round win over Saint Peter’s, things were much smoother. In a 62-58 second-round win over Texas, the outside shooting was shaky once again.
And that makes the Vols volatile. They went 3-for-25 from 3 against Texas, but managed to hold on after a 9-point lead with 4 minutes to play just slipped away. Tennessee forced 17 turnovers and converted those into 15 points, but the defensive might of this team is nothing new. Tennessee’s postseason run was always going to be built or broken by its ability to knock down shots. The Vols are uncomfortably hot and cold at the moment.
Tennessee sportsbooks have the Vols priced anywhere from +1100 to +1300 to win the title at this point.
2 Iowa State Cyclones (No. 8 overall)
Original: 2-seed (No. 8 overall)
After thumping Houston to win the Big 12 Tournament title, Iowa State won its opening-round game against South Dakota State by 17 and then beat Washington State in the second round by 11. They made 11 of their 23 triples against SDSU and 7 of 14 against Wazzu.
With this team, it feels like we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop. In the Cyclones’ last 4 games, they have made 38 triples at a 48% clip. Throughout their first 32 games, Iowa State made an average of 6 triples a game at a 34% clip. Of course, they won 8 of 10 to close out the regular season without this run of brilliant perimeter shooting but the postseason surge has been fueled by it.
How long is this run of form going to last?
3 Creighton Bluejays (No. 9 overall)
Original: 3-seed (No. 10 overall)
Creighton’s starting 5 is outstanding. And that’s good, because it’s basically them against the world right now. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Trey Alexander, and Baylor Scheierman all played 38 minutes in the Jays’ 77-60 win over Creighton. Steven Ashworth played 32 minutes. Mason Miller played 25. Francisco Farabello played 18 off the bench.
In Saturday’s 86-73 double-overtime win over Oregon, Scheierman and Alexander each played the full 50. Kalkbrenner played 49. Ashworth played 42. Only 2 players saw meaningful time off the bench — Farabello in regulation, and Jasen Green in overtime. Foul trouble or injury could derail this team quickly.
But make no mistake, the Jays at full strength are excellent. They scored 1.242 points per possession in the first round and then still cracked 1.132 PPP in the second round despite shooting just 39% from the field.
3 Illinois Fighting Illini (No. 10 overall)
Original: 3-seed (No. 12 overall)
Terrence Shannon Jr. has scored 56 points in 2 NCAA Tournament games. He scored 34 points in the Big Ten Tournament title game, and he scored 40 points in the semis. Over his last 6, the dynamic guard is averaging 30.5 points per game. Illinois has the No. 1 offense in the country, according to KenPom’s adjusted offensive ratings.
A lot like Alabama, the Illini have been marked by a ridiculous offense and a mediocre defense. Through the tournament’s first 2 rounds, that defense hasn’t been an issue, though. Illinois played around with Morehead State before taking control in the second half with a 32-9 run. Against Duquesne in the second round, the Illini dropped 50 first-half points and led by 24 at the break. The path has been light to this point, and that will obviously soon change.
3 Gonzaga Bulldogs (No. 11 overall)
Original: 5-seed (No. 21 overall)
Welcome back, Zags. It’s like you never left.
Which, of course, they didn’t. Mark Few’s group is making its ninth consecutive Sweet 16 appearance. After losing Drew Timme and opening the season 11-5, Gonzaga was looking very un-Gonzaga-like. Graham Ike, a 6-9 forward who missed the 2022-23 season with an injury, has taken up the mantle for a Bulldogs group that has won 16 of its last 18 games. That includes an 86-65 win over Will Wade’s McNeese State, and then an 89-68 beatdown of Kansas.
Ike had a run of 7 straight 20-point games to close out the regular season. In the tournament, he has been uber-efficient while the Zags have been well-balanced. Ike has 31 points and 19 rebounds while shooting 13-of-17 from the field and 5-of-5 from the foul line. Five scored in double-figures against Kansas. The Bulldogs are scoring a ridiculous 1.316 points per possession in the NCAAs.
3 Marquette Golden Eagles (No. 12 overall)
Original: 2-seed (No. 7 overall)
Marquette has looked the weakest of the 2-seeds to start. It trailed Western Kentucky by 7 at halftime in the South Region’s opening-round 2-15 matchup, and it was a 4-point game with a little under 9 minutes to play in the game. The Golden Eagles blew an 11-point halftime lead against Colorado in the second round and found themselves in another tight game late. It was tied with 4:02 to play, then Colorado missed 6 of its last 7 shots.
Tyler Kolek is the straw that stirs the drink on offense, and he’s been otherwise exceptional. The senior guard has 39 points, 22 assists, and 11 rebounds through his first 2 games.
4 Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 13 overall)
Original: 4-seed (No. 16 overall)
Alabama’s “all gas, no brakes” mentality is wildly entertaining. In the first round against Charleston, the Tide were more like a tsunami that obliterated whatever was in its path. Mark Sears scored 30 points and Alabama averaged 1.380 points per possession. They made 13 3s and 24 free throws. Sure, it was only a 13-point win, but it was a 31-point game at the final under-8 timeout. Who cares about garbage time?
Nate Oats did, and he had good reason to. On Sunday, Alabama’s offense dried up. The Tide shot 37% from the field and 26% from 3. Sears powered the Crimson Tide over the finish line against Grand Canyon with 26 points and 6 assists, but the Lopes missed 14 of their 37 free throws and lost by 11. Add to it the fact that Grand Canyon forgot how to play team basketball on offense in the second half and Alabama should probably feel a little lucky to have escaped.
Or they’ll feel confident they can win when they don’t have their A game. As if a team that has scored 90-plus points 17 times this season needs more confidence.
4 Clemson Tigers (No. 14 overall)
Original: 6-seed (No. 22 overall)
What do we make of a Clemson team that lost 3 of 4 heading into the tournament — against non-tournament teams no less — thoroughly dominated New Mexico in the first round, held a 15-point second-half lead over 3-seed Baylor, watched it evaporate, and still hold on to advance to the program’s second Sweet 16 appearance this century? The Tigers have been led by Chase Hunter, who scored 21 points against New Mexico and then had 20 and 6 assists against Baylor. They’ve been the hardest team to peg thus far.
4 San Diego State Aztecs (No. 15 overall)
Original: 5-seed (No. 18 overall)
San Diego State narrowly avoided a first-round upset by beating UAB 69-65. For more than 6 minutes midway through the second half, the Aztecs scored just 5 points and saw what was a 12-point lead disappear. They also had a spell in the first half of 11 straight misses. They were much more potent in the second round, when they outscored Yale 45-21 in the first half and cruised to an 85-57 win. Jaedon LeDee has been sensational through the first two rounds, with 32 points and 8 boards in the first game and a 26-point, 9-rebound effort in the second.
4 NC State Wolfpack (No. 16 overall)
Original: 11-seed (No. 45 overall)
The Wolfpack refuse to die. Of the teams left standing, there are only 2 that sit outside the top 17 in KenPom’s rankings. Clemson is No. 23. NC State is No. 53. This is a team that wasn’t supposed to be here, especially not after a stretch of games from Jan. 20 through March 9 that saw the Wolfpack go 4-10. They lost 4 straight to close out the regular season. Then they won 5 games in 5 days to claim the ACC Tournament title and the league’s auto-bid. Now, they’ve run the win streak to 7 with an opening-round victory over Texas Tech and an overtime win over Oakland in the second round.
Ben Middlebrooks is averaging 11.5. DJ Horne is averaging 13.5. Mohamed Diara is averaging 14. And DJ Burns is averaging 20. When Middlebrooks fouled out in 14 minutes against Oakland, Michael O’Connell stepped up and supplied 12 points and 8 assists after a 0-point performance in the first round. This is an all-hands-on-deck situation. They’re averaging 1.223 points per possession with a solid 14% turnover rate in the tournament. That’s a top-25 offense. Seemingly out of nowhere.
JJ McCarthy continues to dominate the news cycle leading up to the 2024 NFL Draft.
McCarthy’s draft stock has been surging, potentially all the way up to No. 2, according to a top NFL insider.
“It’ll be really interesting because everybody’s always trying to figure out, especially at the top of the draft, what the other teams are doing,” Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network said Monday. “When I’ve had conversations here with executives for other teams who know (Washington Commanders GM) Adam Peters well, who know the situation well, the most popular answer for what they do at No. 2 is JJ McCarthy. So, a lot of drama still to come.”
NFLN’s Tom Pelissero said his conversations with executives from other teams led to a common prediction on what Washington will do with the No. 2 overall pick, but one different from many mock drafts and odds. “The most popular answer for what they do at No. 2 is J.J. McCarthy.” pic.twitter.com/EaadMkM2V6
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) March 25, 2024
Peters himself isn’t tipping his hand, indicating that it’s wide open as far as who the Commanders take with the second-overall pick.
“We still have a lot of [time], a month ’til the draft [as of] today,” Peters said Monday, per Ben Standig of The Athletic. “It doesn’t sound like a long time, but you get a lot of information in that month. There are still some of the guys we haven’t seen in person. So, we’ll go out and do that next week, see a couple more quarterbacks. Then, we’ll do visits with them. We’ll do Zoom calls. We’ll do a lot of different things.
“So, we’re far from our answer.”
Odds move on news of Commanders’ interest
Those who believe Pelissero have the opportunity to make some serious money. Here are the current odds for the 5 most likely teams to pick McCarthy, per DraftKings:
- Minnesota Vikings –130
- New York Giants +250
- Denver Broncos +550
- Washington Commanders +600
- New England Patriots +650
The Commanders line moved from +900 to +600 as Pelissero’s report spread on social media and around the web. Still, Washington is a distant fourth in DraftKings’ odds.
It would take a $130 bet on the Vikings to win $100 for a $230 payout. At current odds, a $100 bet on the Commanders would win $600 for a $700 payout.
As expected, all 5 teams have established interest. Albert Breer of Monday Morning Quarterback shared Monday that McCarthy had Friday meetings with the Patriots, Seahawks and Commanders. Parker Gabriel of the Denver Post reported last week that coach Sean Payton and other members of the Broncos organization met with McCarthy the day after Pro Day. The Vikings, meanwhile, planned a private workout with McCarthy.
Over on the NFL Mock Draft Database, media members favor McCarthy to the Vikings, but others have predicted he will be picked by the Patriots (Chiefs Wire, March 24), Broncos (The Sports Bank, March 26) and Giants (Tankathon, March 24).
The Database shows that McCarthy’s stock has surged over the past 6 weeks, as he has drawn rave reviews at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis and at Michigan’s Pro Day. Just recently, an ESPN analyst opined that McCarthy had solidified his status as a top-5 pick.
Fans have a lot of information to weigh, but the McCarthy buzz is making for an intriguing betting situation. Saturday Tradition has promos for the best Michigan online sportsbooks and Ohio sports betting apps.
Washington is moving into the Big Ten with a new face leading Husky basketball.
Mike Hopkins spent 7 seasons with the program but was unable to guide Washington to consistent success. He did lead the Huskies to an NCAA Tournament appearance in the 2018-19 season but was just 118-106 overall.
To make the move into the B1G, Washington is handing the reins to Danny Sprinkle. He is coming off 3 straight NCAA Tournament appearances at 2 different programs, most recently guiding Utah State to the second round this year.
“I want to express my sincere gratitude to President Cauce and the athletic department leadership for entrusting me to lead the men’s basketball program at this world-class institution,” said Sprinkle. “It was going to take something special for me to leave Logan, and the University of Washington was it. The university means a great deal to our family and I am excited to return to my home state. With a strong commitment to excellence and incredible fan support, we will recruit exceptional young men who will take pride in wearing the purple and gold, who will win championships and who will leave UW with an impressive degree. I am excited to get started and to be a part of such a special place.”
𝐖𝐞𝐥𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐚𝐤𝐞, 𝐂𝐨𝐚𝐜𝐡 𝐒𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐥𝐞!#GoHuskies
— Washington Men’s Basketball (@UW_MBB) March 25, 2024
Sprinkle arrives with family connections to the Huskies. His father, Bill Sprinkle, was a defensive back for the program in the 1960s. A rising name in college basketball, Sprinkle was expected to be in the running for the Oklahoma State job as one of the top candidates in the cycle.
Background on Sprinkle
An alum of Montana State, Sprinkle returned to his alma mater as an assistant (2006-08) and landed his first head coaching job there in 2019. He turned things around in his third season, guiding the Bobcats to regular-season and tournament titles in the Big Sky Conference. He followed that up with another Big Sky Tournament title in 2023.
After making the move to Utah State, Sprinkle delivered the first-ever outright Mountain West title to the Aggies. The program also won its first NCAA Tournament game since 2001 with an 88-72 win over TCU.
As for their playing style, Utah State was efficient while shooting 49% from the floor and averaging just shy of 80 points per game. The Aggies also averaged 22.4 free-throw attempts per game but did not heavily rely on the 3-point shot.
On paper, this is a win for Washington as the Huskies find their guy and a head coach with ties to the region. Sprinkle has won at every stop in his coaching career, but that doesn’t change the immediate outlook for their hopes in the Big Ten.
The conference is already among the toughest leagues in the country, and Sprinkle will have his work cut out to compete in the new-look B1G alongside UCLA, USC and Oregon. Not to mention other stalwarts like Purdue, Illinois and Michigan State. Be sure to track all the odds for Sprinkle’s first-ever season with the Huskies through Tradition’s Ohio betting apps.
The 2024 NCAA Tournament is heading into the second weekend with a Sweet 16 field finalized Sunday night!
While Texas A&M and Houston produced an instant classic in the Round of 32, the rest of the round was relatively calm. No. 1 seeds Purdue, UConn and UNC rolled while teams like Alabama and Tennessee survived to advance but looked rather ugly in the process.
Prior to the start of the tournament, CBS aired a segment on the 10 teams in the final field with a realistic shot to cut down the nets. 3 of those teams — Washington State, FAU and Auburn — have been eliminated, leaving 7 teams from the list in the Sweet 16.
Here is that full CBS segment:
64 teams still have dreams of winning it all.
We combed through the records and found what qualities a team needs to win it all and what would eliminate a team from contention. The research narrowed it down to 10 teams ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/P3VMX2hjQV
— CBS Sports College Basketball ? (@CBSSportsCBB) March 21, 2024
NJ, PA, VA, MD, WV, MA, KS, KY, LA, TN, CO, AZ, IA, IL, IN, MI, OH
Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
The teams still standing with a shot to win it all (per CBS’s breakdown) are UConn, Purdue, UNC, San Diego State, Arizona, Gonzaga and Iowa State. While other analysts will embrace the idea of reseeding the Sweet 16, I am going to take the opposite angle in this piece.
What follows are the 3 teams from CBS’s analysis to avoid picking down the stretch, along with one prediction for the likely national champion in Phoenix. Let’s get to it:
3 teams to avoid in your bracket redo
Gonzaga (+2500 to win the title via ESPN Bet)
This is a pretty easy call, and it has everything to do with Gonzaga’s Sweet 16 matchup. The Bulldogs will next face Purdue, a 1-seed the team has earlier experience with this season in the Maui Invitational.
At halftime of that game, Gonzaga actually led by 5, but that was the end of the highlights. Purdue rolled to a 73-63 win with a massive second half while the Boilermakers held Gonzaga below 40% shooting from the field and 6-for-32 (18.8%) from 3-point range.
All eyes will once again be on Zach Edey, Purdue’s dominant big man in the middle of a historic NCAA Tournament run. Edey delivered 25 points, 14 rebounds and 3 blocks in that matchup against the Bulldogs, so he’s lined up to deliver another gem in the Sweet 16.
The Bulldogs might one day get their first national title under Mark Few, but this is not the year.
Iowa State (+2000 via ESPN Bet)
Never mind winning the national championship, the Cyclones have the toughest weekend ahead in order to even reach the Final Four. It all starts with a matchup against Illinois.
Accounting for the first two games of the NCAA Tournament, the Illini now have the No. 1 offense in the nation per KenPom‘s adjusted efficiency. That sets up a massive showdown with Iowa State producing the top mark in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Defense traditionally travels, so Iowa State’s performance against Illinois will be a fun one to watch. However, it should still be said that the Illini are on a run of 4 straight games scoring 85+ points with Terence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask absolutely shining in the postseason.
Even if Iowa State is able to get past Illinois, the Elite 8 matchup is likely to come against UConn. The Huskies will face San Diego State in the Sweet 16, but Dan Hurley’s squad looks locked in and dominant.
With the potential for back-to-back grinders in the second week of the tournament, steer clear of the Cyclones.
UNC (+1100 via ESPN Bet)
The Tar Heels looked strong and found their groove with wins against Wagner and Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad in the opening weekend. The perception is UNC is clicking at the right time, but the second week presents a challenge of even getting to the Final Four.
First up, North Carolina gets Alabama, but I would strongly urge fans to avoid putting a lot of stock in Alabama’s outing against Grand Canyon. The Crimson Tide survived all while shooting 26% from 3-point range.
Expecting Nate Oats’ team to have that kind of shooting effort in the Sweet 16 is unlikely, but the Tar Heels are given the edge with DraftKings listing UNC -4 against Alabama. Fans can track the latest line movement for the Sweet 16 with Tradition’s Ohio online sportsbooks.
However, Alabama is just the tip of UNC’s future journey. The other matchup in the West Region includes 6-seed Clemson and 2-seed Arizona, a pair of teams that both pose problems for Hubert Davis and company.
Clemson already beat the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill this season, so Brad Brownell and the Tigers know they can hang with UNC. As for Arizona? Well, the Wildcats have an elite profile, and that matchup would be basketball heaven for a number of reasons.
Arizona is 1 of just 3 teams to finish with a top-10 mark in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Auburn (a first-round loser to Yale) is 1, and the other we’ll get to in a minute.
And who can forget about Caleb Love? The former Tar Heel transferred to Arizona this offseason and posted career-high scoring numbers with the Wildcats.
Likely champion: UConn (+210 via ESPN Bet)
Okay, that’s not the type of climactic build up anyone was looking for, but sometimes chalk is the right call. In the second round, the Huskies blew past Northwestern 75-58 and shot 53.7% from the field, all while finishing 3-for-22 from 3-point range.
UConn has looked like the best team in the country all year, and I’m not sure it will matter who the Huskies face at any point in the tournament. (Though if you’re looking for a challenger, I’ve got Arizona as the team with the best shot to take down UConn.)
The Huskies are 2nd in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and the No. 1 team in that metric (Illinois) has the 92nd adjusted defensive efficiency. UConn has no such concerns with the No. 8 defense per the metric.
Simply being the best team never guarantees everything. But it’s hard to pick against UConn after a dominant regular season and an elite start to the NCAA Tournament.
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