Chris Ash?

Seems like a nice guy. He always has that look on his face like he’s got 4 kids hopped up on sugar at a theme park, but in terms of how he comes across as a human being, he presents himself well.

Good. I got that out of the way.

What you’re about to read will make it seem like I never want Ash to step onto a football field again. It’ll also probably sound like I’d rather have roughly half the Group of 5 schools in the B1G instead of Rutgers, and even though the school only got $11.7 million of conference revenue shares compared to the $54 million that the 12 longstanding member schools got, that’s still basically stealing.

That’s a bit harsh, but I’m also not going to call you wrong if you accuse me of coming across that way.

This, however, is a place of positive thoughts. That’s why we’re going to create a world in which Ash keeps his job beyond 2019, no matter how much it hurts our brains.

It’s worth noting that for the most part, I hate “hot-seat stories.” Most of them completely gloss over the dynamic at play with the current athletic director, which is what determines how a lot of these things play out.

Credit Rutgers athletic director Patrick Hobbs for always trying to pour cold water on the hot seat lists. Last year, he bashed CBS Sports for including Ash on their preseason hot seat list (Hobbs was obviously right because Ash had easily the worst season of any Power 5 program and he still kept his job). I actually agreed with Hobbs and took what he said seriously.

After all, Hobbs took over for the disastrous Julie Hermann a week before Ash was hired to take over for the disastrous Kyle Flood. Hobbs and Ash have been collaborating on this unsuccessful effort to look like a Power 5 program from the jump. So as expected, Hobbs made the most “he’s on the hot seat but I’m not going to be a jerk about it” comment when asked about the subject this summer (via NJ.com).

“Chris and I know what the expectations are. Anyone else, they can attach (hot-seat) labels and things like that. Our label is we want to see significant improvement. We want to show our fans that we’re on the right track and things are happening in a positive direction where we can really look forward to success down the road.”

“We want to see significant improvement.”

Ok, now I’m confused. You see, everything is significant improvement for Rutgers. “Bowl or bust” is far too cut and dry, and really far too lofty for Ash in Year 4. Here would be things Rutgers didn’t do in 2018 that would be considered by some as “significant improvement.”

  • Avoid an 11-game losing streak
  • Have a player earn all-conference honors
  • Score 18 points against someone other than a 3-win Sun Belt team
  • Score 8 points against a Top 25 team
  • Don’t own:
    • FBS’ worst scoring offense
    • FBS’ high in interceptions thrown
    • P5’s worst total offense
    • P5’s worst passing offense
  • Don’t be eliminated from bowl eligibility by Oct. 20
  • Don’t finish behind 2 Group of 5 schools in the recruiting class rankings

Wait a minute.

I cannot believe I missed that last year. Rutgers was eliminated from bowl eligibility on Oct. 20?!?! For a Power 5 team, that’s absolutely insane.

I went back and tried to find the earliest Power 5 teams were eliminated from bowl eligibility. The only ones I found among Power 5 teams since we went to the 12-game regular season (2006) that were worse than 2018 Rutgers were 2008 Washington State losing bowl eligibility on Oct. 18, and 2006 Stanford losing bowl eligibility on Oct. 14.

(As for B1G teams, 2007 Minnesota team matched Rutgers’ Oct. 20 bowl eligibility elimination date in a fitting loss to FCS North Dakota State in the Metrodome.)

Even 2008 Washington, which went 0-12, had bowl eligibility until Oct. 25. Same with 2006 Duke, which had bowl eligibility until Oct. 21. Oh, and even the 0-12 Kansas squad in 2015 had bowl eligibility until Oct. 24.

Speaking of Kansas, I’d say not losing by 41 to the Jayhawks would be a good place to start. Ah, but unfortunately for Ash, he won’t get a “here’s how far we’ve grown” game against Kansas this year.

So is “significant improvement” just having bowl eligibility in mid-November? Significant improvement might just be ending the 12-game conference losing streak. That would be avoiding a goose egg in B1G play for the third time in 4 seasons under Ash.

Significant improvement would be increasing the 11.5 points per game scored in 27 conference games in the Ash era. Did you know that even if you combined Rutgers 3 years of B1G points (310), 8 Power 5 teams scored more than that in conference play in 2018?

I’m not sure if it was good news that John McNulty’s return marked the first time that Rutgers brought back the same offensive coordinator since 2010. We’ll just call it news.

Have I mentioned yet that during the Ash era, Rutgers has twice as many games of single-digit performances (14) as it does total wins (7)? Consider that me mentioning it.

Shocking, I know.

I know what you’re thinking. This is a lot of offensive talk as it relates to a defensive-minded coach. Why does Ash get all the blame? Who says he can’t significantly improve a team that has 16 starters returning?

Here’s the thing. Ash could show significant improvement. Maybe he won’t have a 2-game stretch in which Kansas and Buffalo outscore his team by a combined 70 points. I’m here for it. If that world exists and Rutgers does have — dare I say — bowl eligibility alive into November, maybe Hobbs would double down and not act on a contract that runs through 2022. Somehow.

And I understand the fact that Ash stepped into an absolute mess that Flood left. That 2015 Rutgers season with all the arrests, Flood’s suspension and the awful football was one for the ages. Nobody expected Ash to come into New Jersey and be Greg Schiano in 2 years.

For all I know, Hobbs will use Schiano as the benchmark for why Ash needs another year. Schiano didn’t make a bowl game in his first 4 years, and he was sitting there was just 3 total conference wins (that’s Ash’s total through 3 years). Then Schiano ripped off the best 7-year run the program had in the modern era before he left for the NFL.

But at least his teams had bowl eligibility until late-November in Year 3 and Year 4. If Ash can’t even do that, it’s hard to imagine the world in which Hobbs runs it back in Year 5. In 2019, you don’t get 5 years to show your worth. There’s too much money to be made to be as atrocious as Rutgers has been under Ash.

Sometimes, nice guys finish last. A nice guy set an awfully low bar for himself to rise above.

If a world exists in which Ash can do that, well, strap in because 2019 is going to be one heck of a ride.