Wisconsin running back Braelon Allen couldn’t believe the stat he was just told Saturday night. The 18-year-old hadn’t researched the history of Wisconsin’s rivalry with Ohio State. So, upon hearing that the Badgers hadn’t beaten the Buckeyes on the road since 2004, Allen was shell-shocked.

“I wasn’t even a year old,” Allen told reporters. “That’s crazy.”

It’s no surprise that the Badgers will be the underdog in Saturday’s 7:30 ET matchup against the No. 3 Buckeyes. And sure, despite Wisconsin’s on-the-rebound 66-7 win over New Mexico State last week, there’s still plenty it needs to fix.

Few teams nationally will be able to handle Ohio State’s high-tempo offense led by quarterback CJ Stroud. Even if preseason All-America wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is limited, the Buckeyes have options in their passing game. Marvin Harrison Jr. looks like a clone of his Hall of Fame father. Sophomore Emeka Egbuka would arguably be most teams’ No. 1 option. Both are averaging better than 100 receiving yards per game through the Buckeyes’ 3-0 start.

But there’s hope in Madison despite the 17.5-point betting line.

Allen’s ability to create magic when running lanes close is one reason for optimism. The progression of quarterback Graham Mertz with the deep ball is another. Of course, Wisconsin’s defense will limit most mortal teams so long as coordinator Jim Leonhard is calling plays.

Is that enough to make Saturday’s showdown a game? Perhaps. History suggests the Badgers (2-1) at least have a chance to pull off the upset.

Wisconsin hasn’t beaten Ohio State at any venue since 2010. But since 2011, 5 of the 8 games in the series have been decided by 1 possession.

  • In 2011, OSU’s Braxton Miller needed a 40-yard touchdown with less than 30 seconds left to pick up a 33-29 win at home.
  • In 2012, the game went to overtime after Badgers quarterback Curt Phillips connected with Jacob Pedersen for an 8-yard touchdown with 8 seconds left.
  • In 2013, the Badgers nearly pulled off an upset, but their comeback effort ran out of time in a 31-24 loss.
  • In 2015, the teams were in overtime again after Buckeyes kicker Tyler Durbin drilled a 31-yard field goal in the fourth quarter. JT Barrett kept the Buckeyes’ streak alive a drive later with his 7-yard touchdown pass to Noah Brown
  • In 2017, playing for the B1G title at Lucas Oil Stadium, the undefeated Badgers allowed Barrett to throw for 211 yards and score 3 touchdowns en route to a 27-21 win.

Outside of the 1-score losses, Wisconsin surrendered a 21-7 halftime lead in the 2019 regular season, allowing 27 unanswered points. The other 2 losses during the 8-game slide were indeed blowouts. Whether that means the Badgers have a 75 percent chance to hang around on Saturday, we’ll have to wait and see.

The positive for Wisconsin is that it plays Ohio State close more often than not. Most teams can barely last a half with the Buckeyes thanks to their offensive firepower and consistency. Since 2012, Ohio State is 77-5 overall against Big Ten opponents, and 40-1 at home. The lone home loss came in 2015 against Michigan State, which ended up facing eventual national champion Alabama in the College Football Playoff.

You get the idea. Teams struggle to play at Ohio Stadium regardless of record. At least the Badgers keep things close and make Buckeyes fans sweat for most of the 60 minutes of action. Usually.

If the Badgers are to pull off the upset, they’ll need to trust the run game early. Allen and seniors Chez Mellusi and Isaac Guerendo totaled 241 yards and 6 touchdowns against the Aggies. They combined to average 6.2 yards per carry.

Why trust the run early? Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is still trying to get his trenches clicking for 4 quarters. Against Toledo, the Buckeyes allowed 124 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Rockets picked up 13 first downs, 6 of which came on running plays. Ohio State allowed Toledo to have 4 explosive runs of over 15 yards.

Saturday, Wisconsin will try to avoid a 9th straight loss and 12th in 13 games against the Buckeyes. History suggests the Badgers might have a shot, and should at least keep it close if Paul Chryst trusts his rushing attack to carry the load.