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In 4 years, P.J. Fleck has brought a flare and a flourish to Minnesota football not seen in these parts since — well, probably ever.
But whether by design, good fortune or some combination of the two, the Golden Gophers’ rise to Big Ten West pseudo-contender has seen the continuation of a theme that has been present in pretty much every successful team in program history.
The ability to run the darn ball.
With the reigning Big Ten running back of the year and pretty much every offensive lineman of significance back in the fold this season, Minnesota should be potent on the ground once again. The question is one of dimensionality: can the Gophers put together a serviceable passing game to keep defenses honest?
The answer will determine whether Fleck’s offense improves or regresses during his 5fth season at the helm.
Personnel: Better
Key losses: Rashod Bateman, WR
Key returnees: Tanner Morgan, QB; Mohamed Ibrahim, RB; Chris Autman-Bell, WR; Ko Kieft, TE; Bryce Witham, TE; Brevyn Spann-Ford, TE; Sam Schlueter, LT; Blaise Andries, LG; Axel Ruschmeyer, LG; John Michael Schmitz, C; Conner Olson, RG; Curtis Dunlap Jr., RG; Daniel Faalele, RT
Potential breakout players: Daniel Jackson, WR; Clay Geary, WR; Michael Brown-Stephens, WR; Douglas Emilien, WR; Dylan Wright, WR; Cam Wiley, RB; Treyson Potts, RB
The assumption here is that an extra year in the program — with more weight training, more scheme familiarity, etc. — leads to even better output. Not only does Minnesota return its entire offensive line — including a handful of experienced, capable backups — but this group is also the one that paved the way for the Big Ten’s No. 4 total offense in 2019 (back when things were, you know, not as they were in 2020). Morgan is a 3rd-year starting quarterback, and Ibrahim is pretty good at running back. Like B1G-leading, school-record-153.7-yards-per-game good.
Passing offense: Worse
No offense, Tanner and Chris.
In 2019, the Gophers quarterback showed the potential in that Kentuckian right arm of his. But he had a pair of future NFLers on the receiving end of the vast majority of his throws.
Even with Bateman back last season, Minnesota’s passing offense regressed. And when the 27th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft called it quits early, the Gophers were suddenly down to one consistent wideout in Autman-Bell.
That’s where they’re at heading into 2021. No. 7 has a chance to be the next great receiver in a recent run of ’em, but he’ll need help. Jackson (12 catches for 167 yards) showed flashes last season. Geary played well down the stretch.
But behind Autman-Bell, it’s a wide-open competition. And we can’t, in good faith, predict overall improvement till there’s some objective evidence.
One piece of good news: All three tight ends are back. Offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. has pledged to use the position more in the passing game, and Withham, Kieft and Spann-Ford form a trio of potential change-ups when Morgan’s not throwing to receivers or Ibrahim out of the backfield.
Rushing offense: Better
Ibrahim rushed for over 153 yards per game last season. Minnesota ranked fourth in the B1G and 42nd nationally in rushing offense. And that whole COVID thing helped derail the season on multiple fronts.
This recent context means an “even” mark here would be a victory. But the Gophers should be even better in 2021, and here’s why:
Faalele and Dunlap.
Neither lineman played a down last season after starting in 2019. So not only does Minnesota get its entire starting five back, but it’s scary how deep the unit will be. Even loading the box against these guys won’t guarantee a host of three-and-outs.
If there’s one concern, it’s the sheer workload of Ibrahim over the course of 12 games. The 5-foot-10, 210-pounder from Baltimore is as tough as they come, but he is still a human being.
A breakout season in relief from Wiley, fellow freshman Potts or some combination of the two would make this already dangerous group even more sinister for opposing front sevens.
Special teams: Even
It can’t get any worse.
Minnesota lost at least two games last season solely due to its inability to find a consistent kicker. The coronavirus didn’t help, but the position remains a giant question mark heading into 2021.
So Fleck and his staff have tapped the transfer portal, bringing in graduate transfer Matthew Trickett from Kent State and former Temple leg Will Mobley to compete with Brock Walker, the only confirmed returner on the roster.
The return game didn’t show much more promise last season. The Gophers ranked 109th in FBS in kickoff return yardage and 110th in punt return yardage. Special teams in general has been a sore spot for Minnesota in recent years, and if it hopes to contend for the West once again, it’s a spot that needs to be shored up.
Overall: Even
If you’re a fan of a well-conceived and finely-executed, punishing run game, you’ll want to tune into the Gophers’ games this season. Ibrahim is a rare talent who could find himself at or near the top of several more school records when all is said and done. Even if Ibrahim didn’t play another down, his name would belong near those of Thompson, Barber, Maroney and others who have come through Dinkytown.
And it’s downright frightening how strong the offensive line in front of him is.
But even in the B1G, you can’t rely on one phase of the game. Morgan is a remarkable leader and a fine pocket passer when he’s not under duress, but the questions around receiver and special teams would appear to neutralize any hopes of gigantic improvements when it comes to moving the ball the proper direction.
Veteran sports writer Phil Ervin brings his expertise on Minnesota and B1G football to Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @PhilErvin.