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The 5 Bucks vs. Hawks Picks and Best Bets for Game 6
By Bob Wankel
Published:
Game 5 between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks failed to feature either team’s brightest stars, as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Trae Young both missed due to injury. It was Young’s second straight game on the sidelines, with the Hawks winning Game 4 behind a strong team performance. Things turned out differently in Game 5 in Milwaukee, however, as the Bucks posted a well-round team effort of their own, led by Brook Lopez’s playoff career high 33 points, one of four Milwaukee players to top 20 points on the night.
Let’s jump into a potential series-deciding matchup between Milwaukee and Atlanta with our Hawks vs. Bucks picks and best bets for Game 6.
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GET THE APPBucks vs. Hawks Picks and Best Bets (Game 6)
The scene now shifts back to Atlanta for Game 6 with the Hawks needing a win to force a winner-take-all Game 7 in Milwaukee on Monday night. Young carries a questionable tag into the morning of the game, while Antetokounmpo continues to have the same doubtful designation to which he was upgraded for Game 5. Will the Bucks punch their tickets to the NBA Finals or will the Hawks send the series back to Milwaukee for a final time?
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Khris Middleton Over 27.5 Points (FanDuel Sportsbook -102)
We were confident that Khris Middleton would have a big Game 5 with Antetokounmpo’s absence and he delivered with a well-rounded 26-point, 13-rebound, eight-assist, two-steal, one-block effort.
Middleton played 45 minutes, a game high, and should be in for another heavy workload again tonight with Antetokounmpo unlikely to go once again.
Middleton also played 40+ minutes in the final five games of the Brooklyn series after Milwaukee went down 0-2, averaging 44.8 minutes per game in that span. He also logged 40 or more minutes in the three games of this series that were not blowouts. His joint high points output of the playoffs came in Game 6 of the Nets series, immediately following his 45 minutes in Game 5, giving us hope that he can have a huge scoring effort tonight.
The soon-to-be Olympian, who shot 47.6% from the field and made over two threes per game during the regular season, has taken 20 or more shots in eight of his last 11 games here in the playoffs in which he was on the court 34+ minutes. A night with similar numbers would give him roughly 21 points as a baseline.
That, however, comes with the knowledge that Middleton is a 90% free throw shooter who will have the ball in his hands late in a close game. He is averaging nearly four made foul shots per game in the postseason, even with Antetokounmpo on the floor most of the time. With Antetokounmpo likely absent here and with Middleton proving a willing distributor of the basketball in Game 5, the 6’7” forward should get plenty of one-on-one situations in this one. Reaching 28 points for the 11th time this season should not be a stretch.
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GET THE APPBogdan Bogdanovic Over 17.5 Points (FanDuel Sportsbook -106)
Bogdanovic has come alive over the last two games of this series, picking up where he left off in the Sixers series before he injured his knee. As his health has improved, his minutes have climbed back into the 30s, reaching 39 minutes in Game 5, the first time he logged that number or greater since Game 4 against Philadelphia when he dropped 22 points in a Hawks victory.
Bogdanovic’s confidence and fire are both palpable right now and for a pure shooter like him, these are major keys to successful evenings on the court. He led the Hawks in shot attempts with 22 in Game 5, 16 of which came from long range. He has attempted double-digit deep balls in each of the last three games, making 6+ in each of the last two.
The points from those alone would be enough to cash this prop, but Bogdanovic has also averaged 4.6 shot attempts from inside the arc in this series.
While he does not get to the foul line a ton, he would be the natural choice to have the ball in his hands late with a lead if Trae Young isn’t available, as he shot nearly 91% from the stripe this season. Bogdanovic averaged 17.5 points per game at home and scored more in Atlanta wins than losses, highlighting his importance to the team’s potential success tonight.
Along with his 28 and 20-point efforts the last two games in this series, Bogdanovic dropped 28 and 32 against the Bucks in his two regular season efforts against them. Young or no Young, Bogdanovic should have every chance to post 18+ points tonight once again.
Clint Capela Over 10.5 Rebounds (DraftKings Sportsbook -120)
Clint Capela has had a rough couple of days. He pulled down just seven boards and got poked in the eye late in Game 4’s blowout win, leading to a 21-minute, six-point, eight-rebound effort in the Game 5 loss.
Those back-to-back single-digit rebounding outputs marked the first time this entire season (80 games played) that Capela had failed to pull down double digit boards in consecutive games.
His previous single-digit rebounding efforts in these playoffs were followed by nights in which Capela snagged 16, 11, 19, and 11 rebounds, all enough to cash this prop. In fact, he reached 11 rebounds in all 11 previous games this year after notching less than 10 prior, averaging 15.5 boards per game in those bounceback efforts.
HOW, CLINT CAPELA!?#NBAPlayoffs on TNT pic.twitter.com/dtLR5TGWJy
— NBA (@NBA) June 30, 2021
So, we should be set up for a major redemption game on the glass for the 6’10” starting center tonight. With Antetokounmpo out in Game 5, Brook Lopez (7’0”) played 38 minutes and Bobby Portis (6’10”) saw 36 minutes of action. The duo combined for 55 points and with Capela being Atlanta’s only regular over 6’9”, it seems logical that he will need to be on the court far more tonight in an effort to shrink the 22 two-point baskets Lopez and Portis managed in the Game 5 Atlanta loss.
Major minutes are no requirement for Capela to have a monster rebounding night. After all, this is the guy who led the NBA in rebounding this season with 14.3 per game during the regular season. He pulled down 14 and 16 in his two regular season outings against the Bucks and has topped this prop’s number in 60 of his 80 games this year (75.0%).
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Bobby Portis Over 9.5 Rebounds (FanDuel Sportsbook +102)
The injury to Antetokounmpo has forced Bobby Portis, one of the league’s most valuable bench players, into the starting lineup for the Bucks. Portis, who has had tremendous energy for Milwaukee throughout the playoffs, provided yet another spark for the team in Game 5’s win. He logged 36 minutes, twice his postseason average, tallying 22 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and three steals, all without turning the ball over a single time.
With Antetokounmpo unlikely to go again tonight, Portis will once again see major minutes. He has the size to guard anyone on the Hawks’ roster, but more athleticism than Brook Lopez, allowing him to match up with smaller Atlanta lineups, keeping him on the floor in virtually any situation. While Portis has yet to attain the necessary rebounds required to cash this prop thus far in the postseason, his increased usage will give him every shot to do so tonight.
One of the wildest pre-game routines you will ever hear comes by Bobby Portis 😭
"I sit in the locker room and I envision that the other player on the team slapped my mom. That's why I get mad, and now I've gotta get you because you slapped my mom." pic.twitter.com/9laB8Cl1C6— Sharperz (@sharperzus) July 2, 2021
Don’t forget, this is a guy who averaged 7.1 rebounds per game this season in less than 21 minutes per game. He will likely play close to twice that tonight, so you can do the math to extrapolate the likely outcome here. In seven games as a starter this season, Portis averaged nearly 30 minutes of play and pulled down 11.4 rebounds per game. He reached double digits in rebounds in eight of his last 13 games leading up to the NBA Playoffs in which he played 25+ minutes.
There were only 87 rebounds in Game 5, despite Milwaukee and Atlanta averaging a combined 94 per game this season. If tonight trends more toward normal for these two, there could be considerably more opportunities for boards available for Portis, who already managed to pull down eight of the limited rebounds from Thursday night’s game.
Kevin Huerter Over 8.5 Total Rebounds and Assists (FanDuel Sportsbook -113)
Kevin Huerter has played an immense role for this Hawks team, logging 36 or more minutes in six of the team’s last seven games, with the only outlier being the blowout in Game 2 where Huerter sat the entire fourth quarter. Huerter’s scoring has mellowed a bit in this series, not topping 15 points yet after reaching that number four times in the Sixers series.
However, Huerter has found other meaningful ways to contribute to the Hawks’ cause, as he has tallied 10+ combined rebounds and assists in each of his last three outings. In Games 6 and 7 of the Philadelphia series, Huerter was leaned upon greatly, logging 40+ minutes in both and again putting together double-digit evenings in combined rebounds and assists.
With Trae Young’s status still uncertain for tonight’s affair, Huerter will certainly have a shot to extend his streak of three straight games with seven assists. He has shot just 17-48 (35.4%) from the field in the last four games and might prefer that role of facilitator instead of bucket-getter once again tonight.
And with Atlanta pulling down just 40 rebounds in the Game 5 loss, they may want Huerter’s presence in the paint a bit more tonight, as well. Huerter totaled at least seven combined rebounds and assists in 15 of his 17 games this season in which he played 37 or more minutes, a likely workload for him tonight.
He topped this prop’s required total in nine of those 17 games, despite typically sharing the ball with Trae Young. We can’t imagine Trae at 100% tonight, meaning Kevin Huerter should feature heavily in all aspects.
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Bob Wankel is a credentialed baseball writer for Crossing Broad where he covers the Phillies. A graduate of Monmouth University in NJ, Bob also covers the legalized sports betting industry. Past stops include NFL Films and a decade-plus stint in education.