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Maybe more so than any other team in the Big Ten, the Indiana Hoosiers have a wide range of expectations for 2021.
Could they win the Big Ten? Yes. It’d take quite the run in the B1G East, but with the Ohio State game at home, perhaps IU could eke it out.
Could they miss the postseason all together? Well, yes. Indiana has a tough slate, with road Big Ten games at Iowa, Penn State, Maryland, Michigan and Purdue. That’s not easy. IU is also likely to be a home underdog to Ohio State and Cincinnati; Minnesota in Memorial Stadium could be toss-ups.
Like for everyone, injuries will matter; IU can ill afford to lose Michael Penix Jr., especially for an extended period. He stays healthy, and the Hoosiers’ chances stay high.
Let’s take a look at three best-case and three worst-case scenarios:
Best-case scenarios
Rose Bowl bound
The dream season for the Hoosiers and their fans, as IU gets off to a quick start in a challenging first month of the season and rides that momentum through to the Big Ten Championship.
IU does have a slipup along the way, but perhaps not against who you might think. With a record of 8-0 heading to the Big House on Nov. 6, the Hoosiers are clipped in the final minute by a highly motivated Michigan team. In the game, IU gets the ball back to midfield with mere seconds left, but Michael Penix Jr.’s Hail Mary falls incomplete.
But it’s the only blemish on an otherwise great season, including perhaps the biggest win in modern IU football history two weeks earlier, when Penix put together a game for the ages, throwing for 4 touchdowns and running for another as the Hoosiers beat Ohio State 45-42 in a sold-out Memorial Stadium.
A sea of red engulfs Lucas Oil Stadium for the title game, with Indiana taking on the West champion Wisconsin. It’s a nightmare for IU in the first half, as Penix is nicked up on the second possession and jogs into the locker room. But down 24-10 at the half, Penix returns to the field for the second and although hobbled, he twice finds Ty Fryfogle for TDs, the second to go ahead with 7 minutes left. Cornerback Tiawan Mullen intercepts his 5th pass of the season, this one in the end zone to seal the game with 3 minutes left. IU picks up its 12th win of the season.
New Year’s Six
Indiana puts another building block on its program’s foundation, after the 6-2 season from 2020. The Hoosiers do so by going 9-3, with big-time road victories against Iowa, Michigan and Purdue.
The loss to Ohio State midseason was a frustration, as IU again hung with the Buckeyes but ran out of bullets late. Indiana’s running game, which had been resurgent under Stephen Carr and Co., was obliterated by OSU. IU has only 24 yard rushing in the loss, with 2 fumbles, the second absolutely crippling. (And it comes on an overturned call, no less).
But the Hoosiers can get into a NY6 bowl game with a victory at Purdue to end the season, and the Hoosiers take the Boilermakers to the woodshed. It’s ugly for Purdue as the Boilermakers, needing a win to get to 6 for the season and be bowl eligible, are taken out early. IU scores a defensive touchdown, then on a punt return in the first quarter, and it cruises to a 49-14 win.
Back bowling
Indiana can’t recapture the magic of ’20, leading to an up-and-down season. The loss to open the season at Iowa was a harbinger for things to come, as the Hoosiers play well in the second and third quarters, but a slow start and a bad finish doom them.
It was the same story vs. Cincy two weeks later, then at Penn State and vs. Ohio State. Frustration hits a peak with a home loss to Rutgers, dropping IU to 4-6. But needing victories against Minnesota and Purdue to end the season — and get back bowling — the Hoosiers find their groove. They sneak by Minnesota by frustrating Tanner Morgan into 3 turnovers, then knock off Purdue in Ross-Ade Stadium, with Tim Baldwin Jr. rushes for 150 yards and 3 touchdowns.
IU heads to a lower-rate bowl game, but gets a needed win to finish above .500 for a second season in a row. And look, while it didn’t meet expectations, the Hoosiers finish the year with 3 consecutive victories and a rare bowl win.
Worse-case scenarios
Bucket bomb
The Hoosiers are themselves 5-6 headed to the Old Oaken Bucket matchup with Purdue in West Lafayette, the result of a frustrating season in which IU can’t find any sort of consistency, especially on offense.
The running game, in particular, fails to get untracked, with Carr and Baldwin not being able to grab hold of the starting job. And the offense line, once a strength, has been patchwork since Week 4, when 2 starters, including left tackle Caleb Jones, were lost on the same possession. Painful.
But heading to West Lafayette, IU still holds out hope for a bowl game, if only it can nail the Boilermakers. But Purdue has had a surprise season, has nine wins and has become the talk of the Big Ten. And IU can’t complete, getting shelled by Purdue’s pass-happy attack — David Bell has 3 touchdowns — leading people to wonder what happened to that fantastic IU secondary of a year before.
At least the Bucket?
Indiana suffers badly in all facets:
• Penix is hurt, and the Hoosiers have to turn to Jack Tuttle and then when he’s ineffective, to Dexter Williams II. At least the underclassman gives IU a boost, but not enough to get going in the last quarter of the season.
• New coordinator Charlton Warren fails to connect with his defense in Year 1, as the Hoosiers give up far more big plays than they did at any point in 2020.
Yet, IU still has four wins heading to West Lafayette, and it pummels a bad Purdue team that enters with the same number of victories. The win doesn’t mean much, but does at least show that the Hoosiers are the better of the programs in the state right now.
Bottom drops out
The Hoosiers beat Idaho convincingly in their home opener, but that’s about the extent of the positives for IU. They had already lost the opener at Iowa, a close game but one that the Hawkeyes dominated in the fourth quarter. And then Cincinnati came along in Week 3 and exposed IU, running away in the first quarter and never looking back.
Remember all those turnovers IU got in 2020? Well, the bounces don’t go their way in ’21, with the defense unable to turn offenses over at the same rate. And the offense, forced to go it alone, can’t, especially when Penix misses 3 games in the middle of the season with an injury.
It’s a nightmare.
IU hopes to salvage something in the Bucket game, but the three-win Hoosiers can’t muster up enough in Ross-Ade and Purdue rolls to a 14-point win that wasn’t that close.
Kyle Charters, a familiar face at Gold & Black, covers Purdue, Indiana and college basketball for Saturday Tradition.