Northwestern football: Best-case, worst-case scenarios for 2021

Northwestern rode the best defense in the Big Ten to the conference championship game in 2020.

But the Wildcats had plenty of changes on both sides of the ball this offseason — and on the coaching staff. They were picked to finish 3rd in the Big Ten West in this year’s preseason media poll.

The schedule is pretty favorable, so there are some scenarios where the Wildcats can repeat last year’s success. But there are also some scenarios where they don’t.

Let’s look at a few:

Best-case scenario #1: The defense doesn’t miss a beat

Northwestern’s defense was the best in the nation last season. But its architect, defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz, has retired.

Jim O’Neil is in, and he has weapons. Sophomore safety Brandon Joseph is the reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Year and led the conference in interceptions in 2020. Fifth-year senior Joe Spivak and junior Adetomiwa Adebawore return to anchor the line, and 5th-year linebacker Chris Bergin is also coming back.

In this best-case scenario, O’Neil’s defense picks up right where Hankwitz’s left off and Northwestern continues to stifle the Big Ten — led by Joseph, who turns in another All-America season.

Best-case scenario #2: Hunter Johnson breaks out

In a rare move, Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald named a starting quarterback two weeks before the season starts.

Senior Hunter Johnson, who started 5 games as a junior in 2019, will start in Week 1 against Michigan State. He’ll take over for Peyton Ramsey, who graduated.

Ramsey was a third-team All-Big Ten selection last year, and Johnson has a tough act to follow. In a best-case scenario, Johnson picks up where Ramsey left off, as a dual-threat quarterback who can get the offense going.

Best-case scenario #3: 10 wins, B1G West champions, RedBox Bowl

The Wildcats have a chip on their shoulder for their Week 1 matchup against Michigan State.

Last year, the Spartans handed Northwestern its only loss of the regular season. To set the tone for this season, the Wildcats will get their revenge and ride that momentum through Indiana State, Duke and Ohio in non-conference play.

Then, the fun begins. Northwestern returns to conference play with a win over Nebraska and follows it up with a Homecoming victory over Rutgers. Although they fall to Michigan at The Big House in Week 8, the Wildcats bounce back to beat Minnesota and Iowa at home before falling to Wisconsin on the road.

Victories over Purdue — at Wrigley Field — and finally over Illinois in Champaign set Northwestern up for another Big Ten title game appearance. From there, the Wildcats end up in the RedBox Bowl.

Worst-case scenario #1: No answer at running back

Cam Porter had set himself up for a breakout sophomore season.

Then, he suffered a non-contact injury during training camp and will miss the season, Northwestern announced Aug. 17.

Now, the hunt is on for a replacement. Only 3 running backs on the roster — redshirt sophomores Eric Hull and Marcus Cisco, and graduate transfer Andrew Clair — have any collegiate game experience, so one possibility is a running back-by-committee approach.

In a worst-case scenario, none of them can fill the hole left by Porter’s injury. If that happens, it could be a rough go for the Northwestern offense.

Worst-case scenario #2: The defense regresses — badly

O’Neil has big shoes to fill after Hankwitz’s retirement as defensive coordinator.

His NFL track record isn’t eye-popping — he spent the last 11 years in the league and worked for 5 teams in that span — and he hasn’t coached at the college level since 2008. Can he make the transition back?

If he struggles in his return to Northwestern, where he was a graduate assistant from 2003-04, the worst-case scenario is the defense falls badly. Between the new coordinator and the losses of cornerback Greg Newsome II and lineman Eku Leota, it could be a rough go for the Wildcats defense.

Worst-case scenario #3: 6 losses

That revenge game against Michigan State doesn’t go as planned, and Northwestern starts the season off on the wrong foot.

Although they get past Indiana State, Duke and Ohio, the Wildcats lose to Nebraska once conference play gets into full swing. While they get past Rutgers on Homecoming, they lose to Michigan on the road but pick up a much-needed win over Minnesota at home. Northwestern then loses to Iowa and Wisconsin to close out the year, but manages to stay bowl eligible — but barely.

Either way, it should be an interesting year for Pat Fitzgerald’s group.

Nick Schultz

Nick Schultz is a columnist and breaking news writer for Saturday Tradition. A 2020 graduate of Loyola Chicago, he covered the Ramblers' 2018 Final Four run from beginning to end and has worked at NBC Sports Chicago. Follow Nick on Twitter @NickSchultz_7.