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Illinois football: Best-case, worst-case scenarios for 2021
By Nick Schultz
Published:
As he gets ready for his first season in Champaign, Bret Bielema isn’t saying much about what his Illinois team will look like.
“The great thing is we are an unknown to the world of college football, especially our opponent,” Bielema said after the first day of training camp.
We don’t know much about the X’s and O’s, but the expectations are also somewhat of an unknown. That said, we know a schedule — which is why we can still talk about best-case and worst-case scenarios.
Best-case #1: Brandon Peters takes off
After a down year in 2020, 6th-year senior quarterback Brandon Peters is poised for a big year in 2021.
If Illinois wants to reach its best-case scenario, Peters needs to look more like his 2019 season — or even better.
That season, Peters threw for 1,884 yards and 18 touchdowns as Illinois went 4-5 in Big Ten action. He’s built a close relationship with new offensive coordinator Tony Petersen, and coupled with some additional weapons, Peters could be poised for a career year.
Best-case #2: The running game explodes
Mike Epstein is back — and healthy. Chase Brown is coming off a third-team All-Big Ten season. East Carolina transfer Chase Hayden succeeded under Bielema as a freshman at Arkansas in 2017.
Those are ingredients for a powerful running game.
When Bielema last coached in the Big Ten at Wisconsin, that running game was among the best in the conference. With Epstein, Brown and Hayden all in the mix, Bielema has the ability to jump-start the running game — and the Illini offense.
Last season, Illinois’ running backs averaged almost 200 yards per game. This year, in a best-case scenario, they fly past that number.
Best-case #3: 6 wins, Holiday Bowl
A Week Zero matchup against Nebraska screams upset watch.
In a best-case scenario, Illinois starts the season with a big win over the Cornhuskers at home. The Illini ride that momentum into wins over Texas-San Antonio, Virginia on the road and Maryland at home. A road loss to Purdue is a slight hiccup, but Illinois bounces back to beat Charlotte at home. A couple more losses come against Wisconsin and Penn State before the Illini get back on track with a home victory over Rutgers.
That would be the last win of the season, with Minnesota, Iowa and Northwestern closing out the year. But Illinois stays bowl-eligible and winds up playing in the Holiday Bowl.
Worst-case #1: The pieces just don’t fit together
With many pieces left over from Lovie Smith’s final season in Champaign, the worst-case scenario is simple: they just don’t fit together in the puzzle.
And that’s okay. A new coaching staff brings a new scheme, and the first year of a coaching regime can be rough. If that happens, there will be some good moments and bad moments, but it’s to be expected.
It wouldn’t be the end of the world if the players on the roster don’t fit the scheme perfectly, which is why this worst-case scenario isn’t the end of the world — even despite some ugly games along the way.
Worst-case #2: A last-place finish
Last place would absolutely be a worst-case scenario for Illinois.
It wouldn’t be surprising given everything this offseason, but it still isn’t how you hope your season will go.
The Illini have finished last in the Big Ten West 3 of the last 4 seasons under Smith, and another season in the cellar wouldn’t be ideal for Bielema, especially given his prior success in the conference.
This season could set the tone for Bielema’s rebuild. A last-place finish would likely mean a long-term overhaul, meaning Illini fans would have to remain patient in their wait for another bowl appearance.
Worst-case #3: 10 losses
Bielema’s first season in Champaign starts off badly with a loss to Nebraska.
It gets worse with 4 more losses in a row before finally getting a win over Charlotte. Back-to-back losses follow against Wisconsin and Penn State. Somewhere in one of the last 4 games — Rutgers, Minnesota, Iowa and Northwestern — the Illini will get one more victory.
This will likely be one of two seasons for Illinois. The best-case scenario is a surprisingly good season culminating in a bowl appearance. The worst-case scenario is a rough season as Bielema starts to build the program.
It’s probably not going to be anything in-between.
Nick Schultz is a columnist and breaking news writer for Saturday Tradition. A 2020 graduate of Loyola Chicago, he covered the Ramblers' 2018 Final Four run from beginning to end and has worked at NBC Sports Chicago. Follow Nick on Twitter @NickSchultz_7.