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Ohio State has been the class of the B1G for the past 2 decades, and that doesn’t seem to be changing any time soon. The program recruits at a rarified level and is capable winning a national championship every season no matter how many future NFL stars need to be replaced. With Ryan Day in charge, that’s not likely to change.
So who’s next in the conference pecking order?
Looking at recent consistent success and projecting into the future, Wisconsin and Penn State have separated themselves.
While both teams struggled in 2020, I’m not putting a ton of stock into a Covid and injury-marred season for both squads. Wisconsin won 10 or more games in 5 of its previous 6 seasons before finishing 4-3. Penn State won 11 games in 3 of 4 seasons before starting 2020 with 5 straight losses.
The debate for the second spot in the conference is relevant as the two teams get ready for Saturday’s highly anticipated season opener in Madison. Below is a look at the case for each program.
The case for Wisconsin
Wisconsin has been as consistent as it gets since Barry Alvarez built the program in the 1990s, and expectations have become even higher in recent years. Paul Chryst will enter his 7th season at Wisconsin, which is one year fewer than James Franklin’s tenure at Penn State. Chryst has the edge in overall winning percentage at .747 over Franklin, who is at .682, and a better B1G winning percentage at .740 to Franklin’s .623. Wisconsin has 3 division titles under Chryst, while Penn State has just 1 under Franklin, though Ohio State being in the East is an obvious advantage to the Badgers.
Wisconsin has seen plenty of success without bringing in highly ranked recruiting classes, but in each of the last 3 seasons, the Badgers set new program highs in the online ranking era. It’s as cliche as it gets, but when talking about the Badgers, they get the most out of their talent and develop their players incredibly well. The roster lacks a high number of 4- and 5-star recruits, but Wisconsin is generally a part of the postseason discussion every November.
Another advantage the Badgers have over Penn State is stability. Wisconsin went through a stretch where it had 3 head coaches in a span of a little more than 2 calendar years, but Chryst is exactly where he wants to be and likely has this job until he doesn’t want it anymore. Meanwhile, Franklin and the Penn State fanbase seem to not always be on the same page, and his name comes up every coaching-carousel season, especially when it comes to the continued uncertainty around USC. Even when Chryst decides he’s ready for an exit, I’d be pretty surprised if defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is not the next man up as he continues to decline every high-level job offer that comes his way.
The case for Penn State
Wisconsin and Penn State do not play each other all that much anymore, but if we’re going by recent head-to-head matchups, the Nittany Lions are the superior program. The last meeting was a 22-10 Penn State victory in State College in 2018, and Penn State has won 6 of the last 7 meetings, including 4 in a row. This will be the first time the Nittany Lions head to Madison since the 2013 season.
The significant edge Penn State has over Wisconsin is in the recruiting department. The Nittany Lions put the time, energy and resources to consistently recruit elite-level high school talent that is much greater than what the Badgers bring in on a yearly basis. During the last 3 seasons — which are considered the best Wisconsin has ever done in recruiting — the Badgers landed 13 4- and 5-star recruits. In that same span, Penn State brought in 35 of them.
If you are familiar with Bud Elliott’s Blue Chip Ratio theory on 247Sports, he argues teams must have more 4- and 5-star recruits than 2- and 3-star recruits over the previous 4 recruiting classes to have a realistic chance at winning a national championship, and history backs this up. Penn State is a regular on this list, while Wisconsin is nowhere close. If the only way you measure success is by winning national titles, the Nittany Lions have the better shot at doing that at some point in the near future.
The teams closest to bucking the Blue Chip Ratio trend had elite-level quarterbacks, and we’ll see if Wisconsin has that with Graham Mertz, who had scholarship offers from nearly all the top programs out of high school. Both programs are set up for success in 2021, and the battle for the B1G’s No. 2 spot will have a new data point by Saturday afternoon.
Erik Buchinger brings his vast experience covering Wisconsin and B1G football to Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @DeceptiveSpeed.