Week 1 B1G Primer: No time to waste for B1G contenders

Everything you need to know about this weekend’s B1G slate.

The days of easing into the college football season are long gone. Well, at least in the Big Ten.

It’s one thing to have a marquee non-conference game to open the season, but an entirely different ballgame when the opener counts in the conference standings. It’s a bit of a risk; there’s a reason the NFL has preseason games and high school football teams typically have a scrimmage.

In college, and the Big Ten specifically, the stakes are as high as they can be from the get-go. Of the 12 Power 5 teams that open their season with a conference game, 10 are in the Big Ten (Virginia Tech and North Carolina are the only non-B1G teams with a conference game as their opener).

It also puts 4 B1G contenders, all of which are in the top 20, in a tough spot. There is no gearing up for a showdown to be at your best. The showdown is here.

Here’s a breakdown of the Week 1 slate:

Game of the Week: No. 19 Penn State at No. 12 Wisconsin (-5)

The stakes

Given the way Indiana and Northwestern thrived in 2020, that means that a few typically strong programs took a step back. Penn State and Wisconsin were 2 of those programs (along with Michigan). The Badgers finished unranked for just the 4th time in the last 17 years. Penn State snapped a streak of 4 straight years in the final AP Top 25.

Not to take anything away from Indiana and Northwestern, but I think it’s likely we’ll look back at the 2020 season as a blip, not a trend, for Penn State and Wisconsin. It was a strange year because of the pandemic and the disjointed schedule. Maybe the season wouldn’t have turned out any differently, but I think water will find its level this season, so to speak. That’s to say, Penn State and Wisconsin are going to get back to who they’ve been — the No. 2 and No. 3 winningest B1G teams in the last 20 years, behind only Ohio State.

So yeah, the stakes are huge. Big Noon Kickoff will be there. Camp Randall will feel like normal, with fans once again. The winner is a firm contender in the Big Ten. Absent a blowout, the loser probably still is, too. But it’s even more important for Penn State, which still will have Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan and Iowa left on the schedule.

The stat: Wisconsin averaged its fewest yards and points in 17 years

Wisconsin’s yards per play (4.9) and points per game (25.1) were the program’s worst outputs since 2004. If I had told you that stat after 2 games last season, you’d have thought I was crazy. And if I told you that the Badgers scored a total of 40 points in the next 4 games after putting up 49 and 45 to open the season, you’d have thought I was crazy. But that was the reality of a frustrating season that started so promising.

Scoring 20 points against Minnesota, which had one of the worst run defenses in the country last year, felt like quite the accomplishment.

The Badgers should be much better this season, with Clemson transfer Chez Mellusi and Jalen Berger bolstering the backfield and wideouts Kendric Pryor and Danny Davis healthy. And of course, QB Graham Mertz is healthy after playing through an injured shoulder. It would be shocking to see Wisconsin’s offense struggle that way again.

The big question: Is Penn State headed for another early-season disaster?

Penn State lost a heartbreaker at Indiana to open last season, as Michael Penix Jr. drove for the pylon for the game-winning 2-point conversion in overtime. That spiraled into 5 straight losses to open the season for the Lions, as a College Football Playoff hopeful became a laughingstock.

To Penn State’s credit, it reeled off 4 straight wins to close the season. The early-season slate in 2021 is tough, too, with defending MAC champion Ball State up next and then Auburn visiting in Week 3. If Penn State loses, a feeling of déjà vu will wash over the program. The Nittany Lions are too talented to let another season spin out of control.

The verdict

Wisconsin is tough to beat at home in front of its fans, so I’ll take the Badgers. The Badgers defense is capable of containing Penn State’s skill players such as WR Jahan Dotson and RB Noah Cain.

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Wisconsin 31, Penn State 24

Temple at Rutgers (-14.5)

Temple really struggled last year, and Rutgers probably overachieved. The Scarlet Knights have a ton of momentum coming back and are looking to take a step forward on offense with all 11 starters back, including QB Noah Vedral.

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Rutgers 31, Temple 13

Ohio State (-14) at Minnesota

Make sure you have your roster handy if you’re scouting the Buckeyes, as they lost 10 players to the NFL. That’s in sharp contrast to Minnesota, which brings back 20 starters, most notably QB Tanner Morgan and RB Mohamed Ibrahim. All eyes will be on CJ Stroud, though, as the redshirt freshman — and Heisman candidate — is making his first career start. If I’m Ryan Day, I’m using that terrific offensive line to wear down last year’s No. 124 run defense that allowed 6.3 yards per carry. While Stroud is the headliner, look out for true freshman RB TreVeyon Henderson, the No. 1 running back in the 2021 class.

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Ohio State 38, Minnesota 20

Michigan State at Northwestern (-3)

I think the Spartans will pull the upset and use their extensive transfer list to frustrate an inexperienced Northwestern squad. I also don’t trust Hunter Johnson quite yet after he struggled in 2019. How good will Northwestern’s run game be without Cam Porter (and with Isaiah Bowser and Drake Anderson transferring)?

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Michigan State 24, Northwestern 20

Fordham at Nebraska

The best possible outcome for Nebraska is a win, obviously. But really more than that, the Huskers have to look in sync. After abandoning the ground game in the loss to Illinois, it would be great to see Nebraska dominate in the trenches and for Adrian Martinez to not have to chuck it all over the field. As we saw last week, that isn’t a recipe for success.

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Nebraska 34, Fordham 10

Western Michigan at Michigan (-17)

Michigan will be looking to set the tone after a shaky 2020 season in which it appeared the Wolverines quit. Most notably, it will be a chance to see Jim Harbaugh’s new-look staff that features 5 assistants all 43 years old or younger. Michigan will be trying to avoid a Nebraska-like opener in which the things that have plagued the team in the past resurface. Cade McNamara takes over at QB with a great opportunity, but also a lot of pressure with a 5-star freshman waiting in the wings.

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Michigan 38, Western Michigan 23

West Virginia (-3) at Maryland

Maryland seems to do well against Big 12 teams early in the season, eh Texas? But in all seriousness, I’m very curious to see Taulia Tagovailoa with a full season under his belt. If the Terrapins can protect him and allow him time to find Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus, I think they beat the Mountaineers at home.

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Maryland 30, West Virginia 27

Indiana at Iowa (-3.5)

Iowa finished last season playing as well as any team in the Big Ten, and it would’ve been fun to see this matchup late last season. With Michael Penix Jr. back, along with top target Ty Fryfogle and several SEC transfers, the Hoosiers don’t look to be a flash in the pan. Their defense will give Iowa fits. But I think the Hawkeyes will be able to play the field position game, force a few turnovers and keep Indiana’s offensive line uncomfortable.

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Iowa 26, Indiana 20

Oregon State at Purdue (-7)

This is a big one if Purdue is hoping to get back to a bowl game for the first time in 3 years. Favored at home by a touchdown when it figures to be a 6-6 kind of a season, these are the games that Purdue can ill-afford to give away. Last year was a weird season in terms of games (Purdue fans are still stewing over that Minnesota ending) and player availability (Rondale Moore and George Karlaftis barely played).

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Purdue 31, Oregon State 21

UTSA at Illinois (-5.5)

The fact that Illinois is just a 5.5-point favorite the week after beating Nebraska tells you all you need to know about UTSA, which is more than capable of coming into Champaign and pulling the upset. Artur Sitkowski had his struggles at Rutgers, but he looked terrific in relief of Brandon Peters. Can he do it again?

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Illinois 28, UTSA 20

Scoreboard

Week 0 record: 0-1 straight-up / 0-1 vs. spread
Season record: 0-1 straight-up / 0-1 vs. spread