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Wisconsin had one final chance to secure a victory in its season opener against Penn State. The Badgers gained 57 yards on 4 plays to set themselves up with a 1st-and-10 at the Penn State 25-yard line. Down 6 points in the game’s final minute, Graham Mertz took a shotgun snap and located a wide open Chimere Dike in the middle of the field. But the throw sailed past Dike, who had no chance to make a play on the ball.
More than in any other sport, the perception of a college football team can change so quickly, on a single play, especially in a big game. Had Mertz delivered that one throw on target, the discussion around Wisconsin would be completely different heading into its second game. Fans would’ve forgiven the red zone failures and unforced errors earlier in the game, and articles would have been written saying this is exactly why Wisconsin brought in this prized-recruit quarterback. Mertz, supposedly, was made for this moment, more-so than any QB who went directly from high school to Madison in the last couple decades.
But the throw went nowhere near Dike. Mertz was flagged for intentional grounding on the next play, then threw a game-ending interception.
So now the questions arise. Wisconsin managed only 10 points on 95 offensive plays, and Mertz was responsible for all 3 of its turnovers. Is he still the guy to get the Badgers to the next level?
It doesn’t help him that the guy he replaced, Jack Coan, had a record-setting debut for Notre Dame on Sunday night.
Saturday marked Mertz’s 8th game as Wisconsin’s starting quarterback. In those 8 starts, dating to his amazing season-opening debut last year, he’s completed 60.9 percent of his passes with 9 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. In 2020’s 4-3 campaign, there were myriad mitigating circumstances, injured receivers and Covid issues chief among them. It was a lot to put on a first-year starting QB.
But those excuses are gone. All of the program’s top pass catchers are healthy, and Mertz — now in his 3rd year in the program — had a full offseason knowing he would be the guy.
Mertz failed to come through in several key moments in Saturday’s 16-10 loss to the Nittany Lions, who gave Wisconsin every opportunity to start its season 1-0. He fumbled twice inside the 10-yard line, one of which was recovered by Penn State, and the other of which turned a 1st-and-goal from the 1-yard line into second down on the 7. A few plays later, Mertz lofted a fourth-down pass that was intercepted, his first of the 2 late-game interceptions.
The role of the Wisconsin quarterback has typically been hand the ball off to an incredibly talented running back, avoid mistakes and make some easy throws to extend drives. A game manager is the perfect way to describe most of Wisconsin’s quarterbacks over the past couple decades, and Coan executed the role very well in 2019, which is why he is the best quarterback the Badgers have had since Russell Wilson’s 1-year cameo in 2011.
Mertz was projected to be more than a Coan-type, more like Wilson. Wisconsin has never landed a quarterback of his caliber (high-4 star, No. 3 prostyle QB in the country in 2019) in the online recruiting rankings era, but something is missing from this Badgers’ passing game.
Saturday, Mertz completed 22 of 37 passes for 185 yards with 0 touchdowns and had the 3 turnovers. He seemed to be most comfortable throughout the game targeting tight end Jake Ferguson, but none of those passes went for more than 10 yards. Ferguson had a team-high 9 receptions for 52 yards.
Mertz did not complete a pass to any of the wide receivers till midway through the second quarter when he connected with Danny Davis. Wisconsin has a deep group of receivers with game experience, but it might lack a difference-making No. 1 option. Davis is the obvious top candidate for that designation, and his ability to consistently win one-on-one battles will be huge in helping Mertz find his rhythm and develop confidence. Davis finished with a nice stat line with a team-high 99 yards on 8 receptions, but Wisconsin will have to get him involved much earlier in games.
Mertz will be scrutinized after every game this season, but at least he has a few weeks to get ready for the next huge test. We probably won’t learn a ton when the Badgers play Eastern Michigan on Saturday, but after a bye week, Wisconsin will head to Soldier Field to play Notre Dame, which will drum up the whole Coan vs. Mertz thing.
Wisconsin will find itself in plenty of close games this fall with several tough matchups left on the schedule, and Mertz has the talent to change the discussion on himself and the Badgers passing game.
Sometimes all it takes is one big throw.
Erik Buchinger brings his vast experience covering Wisconsin and B1G football to Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @DeceptiveSpeed.