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A look back at Purdue’s history as a heavy road favorite as it preps for 33.5-point underdog UConn
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With Purdue being a massive favorite at reeling UConn on Saturday, the question might not be whether the Boilermakers will win against the Huskies, but whether they can cover such a massive spread.
The Boilermakers are a 33.5-point favorite, according to VegasInsider.com, the largest pre-game margin for a road game in the program’s last 25 seasons.
(How bad is UConn? It is 0-2 coming off a 38-28 home loss to Holy Cross, and recently decided its head coach must exit immediately rather than at the end of the season as planned. At least some of their fans remain inspired — photo above — but others less so.)
Four times since 1995, Purdue has been a larger favorite, but those have been at home: -43 vs. Kent, Sept. 9, 2000 (Purdue didn’t cover, but won, 45-10); -37.5 vs. Central Michigan, Sept. 2, 2000 (Purdue covered and won, 48-0); -37.5 vs. CMU, Sept. 18, 1999 (Purdue covered and won, 58-16); -36 vs. Akron, Sept. 10, 2005 (Purdue didn’t cover, but won, 49-24).
Since ’95, Purdue’s been a 2-TD or greater favorite — on the road — 6 times, but never by 33.5 points. The biggest was a touchdown less, 26.5, at Indiana’s Memorial Stadium in 2003. In those half dozen road games, the Boilermakers were 3-2-1 ATS.
In all, Purdue has played 30 games since 1995 as at least a 2-touchdown favorite. The Boilermakers are 29-1 in those games — Purdue lost 20-19 to Eastern Michigan on Sept. 8, 2018 after it was a 15-point favorite — and 15-13-2 ATS.
Let’s take a closer look at the 6 road games, since ’95, that Purdue has been at least a 14-point favorite.
At Indiana • Nov. 22, 2003 • Purdue -26.5
Result: Purdue 24, Indiana 16
Perhaps Purdue was experiencing a bit of a hangover when it traveled to Bloomington in late November 2003. The No. 16 Boilermakers had lost at Ohio State, 16-13, the week before, in what Joe Tiller would later refer to as his most heartbreaking loss during his Purdue tenure.
And so despite being a 26.5-favorite at Indiana, the Kyle Orton-led Boilermakers had to battle the Hoosiers, who finished the season 2-10. Purdue held a 21-3 lead in the second half, but a string of errors helped IU claw back. Orton threw 2 fourth-quarter interceptions, after having only 4 all season up until that point. Back-to-back field goals by Indiana, within only minutes of each other, helped IU get within 5 early in the fourth quarter. But Purdue scored on a field goal with 5 minutes left, then held on, thanks at least in part to IU quarterback Matt LoVecchio’s erratic play.
Although Purdue didn’t cover, it did enough to get the Old Oaken Bucket and the victory, its 8th of the season, while Indiana finished 2-10.
At Illinois • Sept. 25, 2004 • Purdue -21.5
Result: Purdue 38, Illinois 30
Behind Heisman hopeful Orton, the 2004 Purdue team started the season hot, winning its first 5 games to reach No. 5 in the country.
The highlights were smoking Syracuse and Ball State the first 2 weekends by a combined 110-7, beating Notre Dame to break a 13-game losing streak in South Bend, and escaping Penn State. But lost in all those highlights was a closer-than-expected win at Illinois.
The game, though, probably was never in doubt, with Purdue, which had been more than a 3-touchdown favorite, holding a comfortable edge most of the second half. That was especially true when Orton hit Tyler Stubblefield with a 34-yard pass with 12 minutes to go, putting the Boilermakers up 38-23. Orton finished with 366 yards and 4 touchdowns. Stubblefield caught 3 of the scores as part of an 11-catch, 115-yard day.
At UCF • Sept. 4, 1999 • Purdue -16
Result: 47, UCF 13
In the 1999 season-opener, Drew Brees helped the No. 22 Boilermakers roll to their 7th straight victory, the program’s most since 1979.
It was an easy win against a UCF program that had to find a way to replace Daunte Culpepper. Purdue picked off the new quarterback, Vic Penn, 4 times, with linebacker Mike Rose scoring on a Pick 6. Brees had an efficient afternoon, throwing for 273 yards and 4 touchdowns and the Boilermakers got a 5th passing TD when kicker Travis Dorsch threw one on a botched field goal.
Purdue, a 16-point favorite before the game, won by 34.
At Northwestern • Nov. 7, 1998 • Purdue -15
Result: Purdue 56, Northwestern 21
Brees’ debut season didn’t get off to a fast start, as Purdue lost 4 of his first 7 starts. But by mid-October, the Boilermakers started to find their groove. They blasted both Illinois and Iowa at home to get back above .500.
It set up a trip to Northwestern, where Purdue was a 15-point favorite. The game turned out to not even be that close. By the end of the first quarter, the Boilermakers were up 21-7, thanks to 2 touchdown passes by Brees and a fumble recovery for a score by D-end Rosevelt Colvin.
Less than 5 minutes into the second half, Purdue was up 42-7.
Brees put up huge numbers, throwing 6 touchdown passes — the last was a 70-yarder to receiver Randall Lane — and 338 yards before exiting in the fourth quarter.
At Minnesota • Sept. 22, 2007 • Purdue -14
Result: Purdue 45, Minnesota 31
In 2007, Purdue’s offense was no joke, with Curtis Painter, Dorien Bryant and Dustin Keller. And opponents, especially early in the season, took notice.
The Boilermakers put up 52 points in each of their first two weekends, wins at Toledo and vs. Eastern Illinois. Then, they smoked Central Michigan in Ross-Ade Stadium. The 3-0 start set up a Big Ten opener at Minnesota, in when Purdue was a 14-point favorite.
The Boilermakers took control early, when Desmond Tardy took the opening kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown. Purdue led 17-0 at the first quarter, then 24-3 in the second, after Cliff Avril returned his interception for a touchdown. All Purdue had to do in the second half was hang on, and it did so behind the arm of Painter, who finished with 338 yards passing and 3 TDs, 2 of which went to Bryant. Purdue won by what was expected: 2 touchdowns.
At Northwestern • Oct. 26, 2002 • Purdue -14
Result: Purdue 42, Northwestern 13
Purdue had lost 3 straight — by a total of 12 points — when it traveled to Evanston in 2002.
Good thing for the 2-TD favorite Boilermakers, the Wildcats were struggling even worse, routinely getting routed by Big Ten opponents. And Purdue took advantage of the country’s worst rush defense, going against its pass-happy type by rushing for 407 yards.
Brandon Jones rushed for a career-best 165 yards on 20 carries, and Joey Harris gained another 132 yards on 27 attempts with 2 TDs. Jerod Void also ran for 2 touchdowns, while freshman quarterback Brandon Kirsch, who was making his 2nd career start, threw for 2 more as Purdue had 551 yards on offense.
Kyle Charters, a familiar face at Gold & Black, covers Purdue, Indiana and college basketball for Saturday Tradition.