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Does Iowa have what it takes to contend for a Big Ten championship and a College Football Playoff spot?
The defense says yes. The offense says meh.
Iowa again relied on its defense on Saturday to hang in there, then the Hawkeyes scored just enough in the second half to rally for a win over Colorado State. The Hawkeyes trailed the Rams 14-7 at halftime.
But the Hawkeyes are ranked 122nd in the country in total offense.
So while it’s impressive that Iowa has beaten Indiana and Iowa State, we think the offensive woes will cost the Hawkeyes against Penn State on Oct. 9 and in at least one other game against West Division opposition at some point. (Also, those two wins for Iowa are not as impressive as they seemed at the time). Iowa could well prove us wrong, but this offense still does not look like one that will make its way into a New Year’s Day 6 bowl, much less the CFP.
This is a timely reminder that our bowl projections are based on where we think teams will be in December, not where they are as we leave September. And the B1G, despite Ohio State’s high-profile loss to Oregon, is still in good shape heading into October. The league has 5 undefeated teams: Penn State, ranked fourth in the new Associated Press poll, No. 5 Iowa, No. 14 Michigan, No. 17 Michigan State and unranked Maryland.
The thought here is still that Penn State and Ohio State are the two best teams in the B1G and the possibility of a CFP berth in 2021 rests with those 2 programs.
Oh, one more note: We now project Oregon into the CFP, and if that happens, the Pac-12 must send another representative to the Rose Bowl. So that’s why we now have UCLA going to Pasadena, bumping a more deserving team out of a New Year’s Day 6 berth.
Here are our latest B1G bowl projections:
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. UCLA
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State vs. Notre Dame
Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Outback Bowl: Michigan vs. Arkansas
Las Vegas Bowl: Michigan State vs. Utah
Music City Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Pinstripe Bowl: Maryland vs. Miami
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Indiana vs. TCU
Redbox Bowl: Minnesota vs. Stanford
Quick Lane Bowl: Rutgers vs. Western Michigan
Longtime newspaper veteran Jim Tomlin is a writer and editor for saturdaytradition.com and saturdaydownsouth.com.