Penn State football: 5 reasons the Nittany Lions will beat Indiana

There will be no repeat.

Indiana had no business beating Penn State last year, and will have even less business doing so now.

The No. 4 Nittany Lions (4-0) should take down the Hoosiers (2-2) handily Saturday night at Beaver Stadium, and will expose themselves as pretenders in the Big Ten and nationally if they don’t.

Last year was a fluke

As serious PSU fans will recall, the Lions had last year’s season opener won before a bone-headed rushing TD kept them from running out the clock. The Lions outgained the Hoosiers 488-211 in that game.

Even without factoring in 2020’s pandemic-related weirdness, Indiana’s 36-35 overtime victory in front of 995 fans at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington screams outlier.

On that fateful late-October day, highly-touted IU quarterback Michael Penix Jr. looked mediocre at best (19-of-36, 170 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) before his late-game heroics. And he looks worse now, despite a strong stat line in last weekend’s 33-31 victory over Western Kentucky. In losses to ranked foes Iowa and Cincinnati this season, Penix completed 43.7 percent of his passes with 6 INTs and just 2 TDs. And he’ll face an even better Penn State secondary than the one he saw a year ago.

Meanwhile, Penn State has fewer turnovers through 4 games (2) than it had last year against the Hoosiers (3). The Lions won’t beat themselves this time around, and its their quarterback who enters the matchup with mounting Heisman buzz.

Penn State’s passing game is unstoppable

Sean Clifford completed 87.5 percent of his passes against Auburn, then threw for 401 yards against Villanova, both career-bests. Totally in sync with new OC Mike Yurcich, Penn State’s 3rd-year starter at QB is on a roll. He looks more and more comfortable by the week, moving subtly in the pocket, buying time, feeding his bevy of receivers.

Among B1G quarterbacks, he’s 1st in yards per attempt (9.7), 2nd in completion percentage (71.7) and rating (171.68), and 3rd in yards per game (290.5) and TD throws (8). In those same categories, Penix ranks 12th, 12th, 12th, 7th and 9th.

Indiana’s pass defense ranks 11th in the B1G and its overall defense 10th. Yurcich’s offense should have no problem spreading the Hoosiers out and carving them up, with star WRs Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington leading the way.

Lions’ running woes won’t matter

Deadpan comedian Steven Wright: “You can’t have everything … where would you put it?”

Struggles in the running game are the price Penn State pays for its up-tempo, quick-strike offense. It’s tough for the running backs to get in rhythm with limited carries, and it’s tough for primarily pass-blocking linemen to shift technique.

Sure, 8th-year head coach James Franklin and staff would love to kill clock on occasion. Or gain a tough yard or 2 with a simple, straight-ahead run.

But running into the same wall over and over again won’t do anybody any good. Against Indiana, Penn State needs to keep playing to its strength and take what the defense gives.

Jokingly responding to repeated questions after PSU rushed for just 80 yards against Villanova, Franklin said: “I’d like to see us leading the nation in rushing.” In a more serious tone later, he added: “It’s not like we’re going to come in next week and rush for 400 yards. We just have to get better, and continue to emphasize it and work it in.”

Meanwhile, there are work-arounds. Special formations and schemes. Tight ends lining up in the backfield. High-percentage, play-action passes. Screens.

“You have to play to your strengths,” Franklin said. “What we don’t want to do is abort the passing game, especially with the weapons that we have right now, and go all run game, because then you won’t be where you want.”

The roar is back at Beaver Stadium

Indiana could barely handle the atmosphere in Bowling Green, Ky., surviving 33-31 last week vs. Western Kentucky in front of 25,171 fans. Penn State expects another 107,000 or so for another raucous Saturday night in Happy Valley (7:30 ET, ABC). Two weeks after its White Out victory over Auburn, Penn State will be back in front of the primetime TV cameras. Only Michigan has drawn more fans in 2021.

Let’s see if Indiana can handle the noise and the glare. We know Penn State can.

Defense is tested, rested, won’t be bested

Penn State had 24 players make at least 1 tackle against Villanova, with no one having to make more than 4. Leading tacklers Brandon Smith, Ellis Brooks, Jesse Luketa and Arnold Ebiketie are well rested. So too are Penn State’s tight-covering, ball-hawking DBs.

Despite his struggles, Penix probably presents a greater challenge than the QBs whom Penn State has faced so far. I’m sure the players  on the No. 12 scoring defense in the nation will be ready, with revenge and pylon protection on their minds.

Final thoughts and a prediction

We’ll have a much better gauge on the B1G East after this weekend.

• Unbeaten Maryland hosts No. 5 Iowa on Friday night, and I have a hunch Taulia Tagovailoa and the Terps are going to upset the Hawkeyes. Either way, PSU fans will get some insight on the relative threat levels of those future opponents.
• No. 14 Michigan travels to Madison to take on Wisconsin (1-2), which despite its struggles still boasts the B1G’s best defense, by far, allowing just 210.3 yards per game. If Jim Harbaugh’s guys can smash-mouth their way past the Badgers, look out.
• Rutgers (3-1) hosts No. 11 Ohio State (3-1) a week after pushing the Wolverines to the limit at The Big House. Is Ohio State still enough of an offensive juggernaut to overcome its shaky defense, player dissension, and inexperience at QB? We’ll get another data point with the Buckeyes battling the Big Ten’s No. 2 defense in Piscataway.

Prediction: As for the Nittany Lions, a 13-point favorite, I expect them to beat the Hoosiers for the 7th time in 8 tries under Franklin. Things are getting back to normal in Happy Valley, and in college football in general. Penn State 45, Indiana 14. (Same score as 2017, when PSU reached 7-0 and No. 2 in the AP Poll heading into a late October showdown with Ohio State.)

Luke Glusco

Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.