Ad Disclosure
Strength against strength: Wisconsin’s elite front 7 faces its toughest test vs. Michigan’s run-heavy offense
Published:
If you want to spend your college football weekend watching modernized offenses with elite passing attacks, 60 other FBS games will suit your needs better than Saturday’s contest between Michigan and Wisconsin. Drives will be long, and the game time will be short as the Badgers don’t trust their passing game, while the Wolverines barely even bother with theirs. This matchup is just short of Army-Navy, where the rare pass attempt creates enough excitement that you’ll gather your loved ones around to see it.
Oddsmakers have Saturday’s game set at the lowest point total of the entire Week 5 slate, and it’s tough to envision how either team will score more than 21 points. Save your Graham Mertz pick-6 jokes. Wisconsin fans have heard them all. The turnover battle is an obvious storyline, with stats that include the Badgers being 5-0 with Mertz as their starting QB when doesn’t turn the ball over and 0-5 when he does. Additionally, Michigan is the only team in the country that has yet to give the ball away this season.
The turnover battle will be important as it always is in any B1G game, but the real battle to watch on Saturday afternoon will be between Michigan’s rushing attack and Wisconsin’s rushing defense. That matchup will in large part determine whether the Wolverines pick up their first loss or the Badgers fall to 1-3.
Michigan runs, runs and runs some more
Fans and hot-takers want coaches fired after any loss, but 2021 is the first year Jim Harbaugh has entered truly on the hot seat. Harbaugh’s contract was adjusted this offseason to include more incentives for good performance, but also to make it easier for Michigan to move on.
Harbaugh’s thought process is clear in this make-or-break year. If this is going to be the end, he’s going out doing things his way, and his way is running the football. Third-year offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, known more as a passing game expert, is mostly going along for the ride.
Through 4 games, the Wolverines are running the ball on 73.7% of snaps, which is the fourth-highest rate in the country against FBS opponents. The only programs ahead in that category are Army, Air Force and Navy, all 3 of which run the triple-option offense.
Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara has thrown the ball just 53 times this season, including a whooping season-high of 16 attempts against Rutgers on Saturday. The Wolverines pass the ball so rarely that teams put a ton of attention toward stopping the run, yet they’ve been highly successful so far. Michigan ranks No. 3 in yards per rush attempt at 6.3, behind only Florida and Ohio State, with their two-man backfield of Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum.
The Scarlet Knights are the best rushing defense Michigan has faced this season, and they did a great job limiting the Wolverines. Michigan rushed for just 2.9 yards per carry and did not score a point in the second half, with 4 consecutive 3-and-outs after the break, but held on for a 20-13 win. Wisconsin has a better rushing defense than Rutgers, so that performance is certainly good news for what the Badgers could do on Saturday.
Good luck running vs. Wisconsin
For all the bad things that can be said about Wisconsin’s hiring of Gary Andersen as head coach for the 2013 season — I’ve said a lot of them — bringing defensive coordinator Dave Aranda with him to Madison has had a significant impact on why the Badgers have been so dominant defensively in recent history. Aranda brought the 3-4 defense to the Badgers, and that has remained with the program even with Jim Leonhard taking over as coordinator. Wisconsin continues to churn out quality defenses year after year, and this season’s front seven might be the Badgers’ best in the 3-4 era.
Through 3 games, the Badgers are allowing 1 rushing yard per attempt and 23 per game, both of which rank No. 1 in college football. They’ve ceded just 69 yards on 68 carries. Sack yardage plays a role in that statistic, but Wisconsin is stoning running backs too. Notre Dame’s Kyren Williams rushed for just 1.8 yards per carry, and if you take away one 34-yard run from Penn State’s Noah Cain, he averaged just 2 yards per rush.
Against Notre Dame on Saturday, the Badgers had a massive advantage over a weak Fighting Irish offensive line, with 12 tackles for loss and 5 sacks, one of which led to a fumble recovery — which could’ve been a significant moment had Wisconsin not completely collapsed in the fourth quarter on offense. That’s how you allow 41 points despite allowing just 3 rushing yards in a game.
Wisconsin held a 28-0 advantage at halftime in both games against Michigan the past 2 seasons. That’s certainly not expected to happen again given what we’ve seen from both teams so far this year.
But Michigan has not seen a rushing defense quite at the level of Wisconsin, while the Badgers front seven faces its biggest challenge yet.
Something’s gotta give.
Erik Buchinger brings his vast experience covering Wisconsin and B1G football to Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @DeceptiveSpeed.