Week 5 B1G Primer: Is it finally time to trust Michigan?

Everything you need to know about this weekend’s B1G slate.

Game of the Week: No. 14 Michigan at Wisconsin (-1.5)

The stakes

Every season, it seems Michigan gets off to a great start and gets its fan base excited. This season is no different, but doesn’t it finally feel as if the Wolverines (4-0 for the first time since 2017) have it figured out? Unlike previous years, they actually have an identity and aren’t stuck in this in-between offense where they want “speed in space” and are trying to spread defenses out. They’ve gone with the Thunder (Hassan Haskins) and Lightning (Blake Corum) approach, and it’s been very successful. They don’t ask quarterback Cade McNamara to do too much, and he’s been very good when he’s had to be. Michigan finally looks like a contender in the East, right?

As the great Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friend.”

This is an important measuring-stick game for Michigan, even if Wisconsin has dropped out of the Top 25. The last 2 seasons, the Wolverines have lost by a combined score of 84-25 to the Badgers — and it honestly hasn’t even felt that close. Wisconsin has dominated, plain and simple. Michigan is off to a great start, but winning at Camp Randall would get the hype train moving full speed ahead.

The stat: Wisconsin is 1-2 for the first time since 2001

The unfortunate part for Michigan is that Wisconsin has dropped 2 of its first 3 games for the first time since 2001 and is now unranked, so there isn’t as much credibility for the Wolverines with a win. It’s like Washington losing to an FCS team and dropping out of the Top 25 the week before the game with Michigan.

The Badgers have been rightfully ripped for their offensive performance thus far, as they are averaging a B1G-worst 19 points per game. They have moved the ball at a decent (albeit still not great) clip in averaging 5 yards per play, but once they get in close, they have turned the ball over. They are dead last in the B1G in red-zone conversion rate, scoring on only 8 of 13 trips (61.5 percent), with only 5 TDs. It gets even worse when you filter out the Eastern Michigan game and only look at Penn State and Notre Dame. Wisconsin has only 2 TDs on 7 trips.

To be 1-2 when you have the No. 2 defense in the country (behind only Georgia) speaks to what a disaster Wisconsin’s offense has been.

The key matchup: Michigan’s run offense vs. Wisconsin’s run defense

This is the matchup we’ve been waiting for, if only to figure out how legit Michigan’s run game actually is. The Wolverines have been pummeling teams on the ground, racking up 290.8 rushing yards per game to rank 5th nationally. Wisconsin leads the country in allowing only 23 yards per game. For those not blessed with math skills, that means the Badgers have allowed a total of 69 rushing yards this season (nice). If that was their per-game average, they would rank 6th. That’s ridiculous.

Something has to give here, obviously.

The big question: Can Wisconsin (specifically Graham Mertz) limit the turnovers?

How do the Badgers rank 54th nationally in scoring defense when they are No. 2 in total defense? Well, Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz has a bad habit of turning the ball over and putting the defense in terrible position. He had 5 turnovers against Wisconsin that led to 31 points for Notre Dame. If he can eliminate those (a big if, I realize), then Wisconsin’s defense can actually do what it does. When you add in Notre Dame’s kick return TD, Notre Dame scored 38 of its 41 points off short fields or special teams. That score was extremely misleading from that standpoint.

The verdict

It says a lot that Wisconsin, despite all of these aforementioned issues, is still favored over a team as hot as Michigan. I think oddsmakers are looking at the past 2 seasons and how lopsided those meetings were.

While I respect that, I just don’t have any faith that Wisconsin can solve its offensive issues. Michigan is the hot team. Even on the road, I like the Wolverines to cover — and win.

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• Michigan 24, Wisconsin 20

No. 5 Iowa (-3.5) at Maryland

This matchup probably didn’t turn any heads when the schedule came out. But now that both teams are 4-0, it’s looking mighty juicy. It’s a prove-it game for Maryland, which has kind of slid under the radar with other teams in the East like Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State and Rutgers also getting off to terrific starts. But with a win against a top-5 team, Maryland would be slept on no more. It’s especially important for Taulia Tagovailoa, who is currently PFF’s top-graded QB in the country. Could Tagovailoa start getting mentioned as a legit Heisman contender with an upset here? I think so.

Of course, that’s easier said than done against this excellent Iowa defense that has made life miserable for opposing QBs, having picked off Michael Penix Jr. and Brock Purdy 3 times each. The Hawkeyes haven’t allowed more than 24 points since the 2018 season.

Now, has Iowa faced an offense as good as Maryland, which currently is second in the B1G with 519 yards per game? Definitely not. Indiana has big issues offensively, as does Iowa State. The Hawkeyes will have to contend with a very good receiving corps, led by Dontay Demus Jr. and Rakim Jarrett. Tagovailoa completed passes to 12 guys last week.

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• Iowa 27, Maryland 23

Charlotte at Illinois (-11)

This is going to be a tough one for the Illini (1-4), as the 49ers (3-1) have only lost to a Georgia State squad that nearly upset Auburn. Charlotte has 474 yards or more in 3 of 4 games this season. I’m feeling better about the Illini defense’s ability to get just enough stops after it allowed only 13 points on the road last week at Purdue.

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Illinois 31, • Charlotte 27

Minnesota at Purdue (-2.5)

How will Minnesota respond to losing as a 31-point favorite against a lower-tier MAC team? I tend to think the Golden Gophers are more of the team that beat Colorado 30-0. Minnesota has allowed 255 total yards in the last 2 games combined, which leads me to believe that this is not a great matchup for Purdue’s struggling offense. The Boilermakers benched starter Jack Plummer last week against Illinois, and Aidan O’Connell came in and promptly threw 2 interceptions. If David Bell isn’t back, I don’t have a ton of confidence in a Boilermakers offense that is already without RB Zander Horvath.

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• Minnesota 23, Purdue 21

No. 11 Ohio State (-15.5) at Rutgers

If I would’ve guessed this spread in the preseason, it probably would’ve been about 34.5. But because of the way that Ohio State (3-1) has struggled in games against Oregon and Tulsa and given how Rutgers has played against Syracuse and Michigan, the current line makes sense. And strangely enough, I’m taking Rutgers to cover. For one, we don’t know how healthy CJ Stroud is. He sat out last week with his injured shoulder, opening the door for true freshman Kyle McCord to get his first true start. Stroud has played in a hostile environment (the season opener at Minnesota), but McCord has not experienced that yet. If Stroud can’t go and McCord has to play, I’m putting this game on upset alert. Secondly, though, Rutgers is just a scrappy team that continues to grind, which is why I think it is a good bet to cover. The Scarlet Knights have yet to allow more than 275 yards in a game this season.

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Ohio State 38, • Rutgers 24

Northwestern at Nebraska (-11.5)

Nebraska (2-3) is 0-3 against Power 5 opponents this season, so it desperately needs a win here. The tough part for the Huskers is that they have actually played very well this season, with the No. 3 offense in the B1G and a defense that is allowing only 327.8 yards per game. Nebraska has been its own worst enemy with some of the mistakes, and I think that even with a big number like this (the last 4 meetings have been 1-possession games), the Huskers should cover with ease. Northwestern (2-2) has really struggled offensively this season.

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• Nebraska 34, Northwestern 13

Western Kentucky at No. 17 Michigan State (-11)

The Spartans (4-0) are coming off an emotional overtime win over Nebraska, and this is no time to take the foot off the gas considering the Hilltoppers (1-2) nearly upset Indiana last week. Kenneth Walker III and Payton Thorne need a bounce-back game after facing a very good Nebraska defense.

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• Michigan State 38, Western Kentucky 20

Indiana at No. 4 Penn State (-13)

We can only hope there is as much drama as last year when Michael Penix Jr.’s 2-point conversion won the game for the Hoosiers (albeit controversially). These teams are in very different places, with Indiana struggling and Penn State surging into College Football Playoff contention. But Indiana seems to play the Nittany Lions well, as this was only a 7-point game in 2019 and a 5-point game in 2018. Also, color me a little skeptical on Penn State’s offense, especially the ground game. This Indiana secondary can be tough to throw on, so the Nittany Lions need to establish their run game.

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Penn State 30, • Indiana 23

Scoreboard

Week 4 record: 8-3 straight-up / 6-5 vs. spread
Season record: 40-8 straight-up / 27-20-1 vs. spread