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The Big Ten West is fairly simple to figure out in 2021: there’s Iowa, and there’s everybody else.
Over in the East, things aren’t so easy to determine 5 weeks into the season. Which is why, as a professional, I feel obligated to help break it down for you.
The contenders
1. Penn State
So far the Nittany Lions look like the class of the entire Big Ten, though that will immediately be put to the test with a visit to Iowa next week.
The reason I like Penn State above the rest of the contenders? The quarterback.
Sean Clifford is the most trustworthy quarterback in the Big Ten, capable of minimizing mistakes while still having the ability to push the ball downfield.
The concern: The offensive line hasn’t been all that great, and Penn State is only 12th in the conference in yards per carry. There is virtually zero chance those numbers will improve against Iowa.
2. Michigan
The Wolverines have spent most of the season in the opposite boat offensively, running opponents over at will but rarely throwing the ball.
That may be changing.
After gaining only 1 first down in the second half of its 20-13 win over Rutgers, Michigan diversified its portfolio against Wisconsin on Saturday. The Wolverines threw a season-high 30 times — they came in averaging just 16 pass attempts — in a 38-17 romp at Wisconsin.
The concern: This team is built to to take an early lead and salt it away for 4 quarters. Cade McNamara showed he could be trusted against Wisconsin, but I worry a 14-point deficit is insurmountable for this offense.
3. Ohio State
Do I think Ohio State will beat Michigan for the ninth straight season?
If they played this month, absolutely not. But they don’t, and it looks like the Buckeyes are starting to figure things out after a shaky start to the season.
“We had a bad day against a team that’s kind of finding its stride,” was Rutgers coach Greg Schiano’s analysis of the Buckeyes following his team’s 52-13 loss.
Even though Ohio State has a loss, it was in non-conference play. The run to the Big Ten championship game still runs through Columbus until someone dethrones the Bucks.
The concern: Quarterback CJ Stroud was up-and-down in September, but he did look impressive against Rutgers after a mandated week off. Stroud threw for 330 yards and 5 touchdowns against a Scarlet Knights defense that was the real deal in its first 4 games.
The bigger concern remains a defense that was almost entirely culpable for Ohio State’s 35-28 loss to Oregon.
4. Michigan State
With Michigan and Penn State both coming to Spartan Stadium, Michigan State fans have reason to ask “Why not us?”
It doesn’t hurt that Penn State has to deal with a wicked crossover game at Iowa while Michigan State drew more favorable matchups with Northwestern and Nebraska, disposing of both. Michigan visits Penn State on top of its trip to East Lansing, and even the Wolverines’ game next week at Nebraska won’t be a walk in the park.
Schedule isn’t the only thing favoring the Spartans. Of the contenders, they have the best overall team balance in terms of being able to pass and run as well as defend.
The concern: The schedule stops working in Michigan State’s favor when it closes the year with back-to-back games against Ohio State and Penn State. Also, opponents have been quite capable of moving the ball through the air against the Spartans — an even larger issue when it comes to facing the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions.
Bowl hopefuls
5. Maryland
Thanks to a crucial season-opening win over West Virginia, Maryland only needs to squeeze out 2 more wins for bowl eligibility. And with Minnesota, Indiana and Rutgers left on the schedule, that is certainly an attainable goal.
You may be thinking to yourself “What’s the big deal? Everybody makes bowl games these days.” And that’s true. Unless you’re Maryland. The Terps haven’t been bowling since 2016, so this is a necessary step for Mike Locksley and the program.
The concern: Receiver Dontay Demus is the straw that stirs Maryland’s offense, and the Terrapins went into their shell as soon as he was carted off the field following a horrific-looking knee injury against Iowa.
From the moment Demus left the game, a potentially compelling 10-7 contest turned into a rout, with Iowa outscoring Maryland 41-7 the rest of the way.
Can this offense get back on track without its star?
6. Rutgers
Like Maryland, simply getting to a bowl game is a major step in the right direction for Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights haven’t played in one since their first year in the B1G, 2014.
Games against Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern and Maryland provide Rutgers with its potential path to the postseason.
The concern: It remains to be seen how quarterback Noah Vedral bounces back from a beating against the Buckeyes.
Stick a fork in ’em
7. Indiana
Luck is not a thing Indiana has possessed in 2021.
To say the very least, it’s been an unfavorable schedule. When the AP poll is released on Sunday, all of IU’s losses will likely be against Top 5 teams — Penn State, Iowa and Cincinnati. Not even anyone in the mighty SEC has run though that type of gauntlet this year.
But Indiana has only made life tougher on itself with self-inflicted mistakes. And as a 24-0 loss at Penn State underscored, this offense has no mojo.
The concern: It’s another year and another potential season-ending injury for quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who is expected to miss significant time following an injury to his throwing shoulder. Penix hasn’t been the same player since last season’s ACL tear, and it seems clear that offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan has called plays expecting him to be.
Maybe they get moving again with Jack Tuttle behind center, but I don’t see 4 more wins on IU’s schedule. It’s a harsh return to reality for Indiana football.
Alex Hickey is an award-winning writer who has watched Big Ten sports since it was a numerically accurate description of league membership. Alex has covered college football and basketball since 2008, with stops on the McNeese State, LSU and West Virginia beats before being hired as Saturday Tradition's Big Ten columnist in 2021. He is an Illinois native and 2004 Indiana University graduate.