We know who the B1G’s contenders are for the Playoff. Now, can they go easy on each other?

Just a few weeks ago when Ohio State lost to Oregon, the Big Ten’s College Football Playoff hopes seemed on ice. The B1G, and college football in general, seems so top heavy that to see the conference’s elite team go down at home in a non-conference game almost seemed like a death knell. When it’s just assumed that Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma are going to run through their respective leagues and leave only 1 CFP spot, OSU’s loss gave the Pac-12, Cincinnati and Georgia an inside track to that final spot over the Big Ten.

But in the last few weeks, the B1G’s outlook has changed. It has 5 of the top 11 teams in this week’s AP poll, with the SEC having just 2. The B1G has 2 teams ahead of the Big 12’s best (No. 6 Oklahoma), 3 teams ahead of the Pac-12’s best (No. 8 Oregon) and 5 teams ahead of the ACC’s best (No. 19 Wake Forest).

Will this last? Of course not. The Big Ten’s best teams haven’t had to face each other yet. The benefit to their current scenario is that there is some added credibility, due to the rankings, when they do square off.

But losses are going to happen. That’s unavoidable. Either No. 3 Iowa (5-0) or No. 4 Penn State (5-0) is going to have one this week. Either No. 9 Michigan (5-0) or No. 11 Michigan State (5-0) will have one by the end of Week 8. That means the B1G is looking at 2 unbeaten teams, at most, at the start of November.

But the key, as the SEC demonstrated this past weekend, is to not beat up on each other too bad. Top-ranked Alabama embarrassed Ole Miss, sending the Rebels from No. 12 down to No. 17. No. 2 Georgia obliterated Arkansas, dropping the Hogs from No. 8 to No. 13. There’s almost no chance of those teams being mentioned as serious contenders anymore, and it’ll be interesting to see if the SEC would’ve been better served with their heavyweights winning by 7 instead of 21 or 37. All of the SEC’s eggs are in the Alabama/Georgia basket, and that could turn out to be fine. But while both look like safe bets right now, what if one or both suffers an upset loss?

I’m not saying I’d rather be the Big Ten than the SEC, but the thing the B1G has going for it is that its options are wide open, more so than any other league. There are 5 legitimate contenders with a path to the CFP, and that’s a big plus. The SEC has 3, including Kentucky (and 4 if you want to be generous and count Auburn). Every year, the Pac-12 beats up on each other and eliminates itself, and this year is no exception (aside from Oregon). Same with the ACC outside of Clemson, and the Big 12 outside of Oklahoma.

As we’ve seen in the previous 7 years of the CFP, it’s extremely hard to suffer a lopsided loss and still make it (hello, 2018 Ohio State). Of the 17 1-loss teams to make the CFP, only 2 lost by more than 14:

• 2017 Georgia lost to No. 10 Auburn 40-17, but the Bulldogs avenged the loss by beating the Tigers in the SEC Championship Game.
• 2020 Notre Dame lost to No. 3 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game 34-10, but the Fighting Irish had already beaten Clemson in the regular season, so both teams got in.

That’s it.

Heck, only 5 have even lost by double digits.

Starting this week with Penn State at Iowa, the Big Ten’s elite play each other. Commissioner Kevin Warren is undoubtedly rooting for his conference’s top teams to go easy on one another, because it’s so hard to build a strong-enough resume with a blowout loss. In a year in which we legitimately don’t know which team(s) are going to be standing in the end, the best outcome these next few weeks is for good, competitive games. Ditto for Week 9, when Penn State plays at Ohio State and Michigan plays at Michigan State. After that, the path to the CFP will be even more clear. But until then, the best outcome for the conference as a whole is to play tight games in which either side could’ve won, so as not to eliminate anyone.

(And obviously, the league needs Penn State to either beat Iowa and Ohio State, or lose to Iowa and Ohio State. Not split. Just as Wisconsin lost to Penn State and Michigan, and as Indiana lost to Iowa and Penn State.)

The scores always matter in college football. The way an undefeated Cincinnati gets in over a 1-loss B1G champion is if that loss is lopsided. The way a 1-loss Oregon team gets in over a 1-loss B1G champion (other than Ohio State, obviously) is if that loss is lopsided. The way 1-loss Oklahoma gets in over a 1-loss B1G champion is if that loss is lopsided.

This is shaping up to be one of the most exciting B1G seasons in recent memory. It seems wide open. With the best outcome for the conference in mind, let’s just hope its CFP prospects aren’t ruined with blowouts.

Ryan O'Gara

Ryan O'Gara is the lead columnist for Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @RyanOGara.