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I like Iowa. In this biased Big Ten fan’s opinion, Iowa is the 2nd most likeable program in the conference. And I like the Hawkeyes’ QB, Spencer Petras. I think he’s been given a bad rap by college football’s commentariat.
But I don’t like the Hawkeyes to beat Penn State when the teams meet at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday for their Top 5 showdown.
Though it’s not a make-or-break game for the No. 4 Nittany Lions or No. 3 Iowa, the stakes are still crazy high. The victor maintains a slight bit of margin for error on the path to a CFP berth, its mojo, and the Big Ten’s longest active winning streak. It’ll get to wear the B1G’s sash in the national beauty contest that the judges from the AP and the coaching ranks vote on every week.
I’m taking Penn State to win its 10th straight game and end Iowa’s streak at 11. Here’s why:
Clifford offers an extra dimension
As I just mentioned, I like Spencer Petras. He reminds me of a certain non-flashy Penn State quarterback from way back when. My fellow Joe Paterno-loving geezers know I’m talking about John Shaffer, the guy who led Penn State past Vinny Testaverde and Miami for the 1986 national championship. Shaffer protected the ball, throwing 1 interception to Heisman-winner Testaverde’s 5 in the Fiesta Bowl, and Penn State pulled off a shocking 14-10 upset for its 2nd national title.
But fond memories aside, I like Penn State’s current QB, Sean Clifford, more than Shaffer — and more than Petras.
For Iowa to win Saturday, Petras would have to reprise the role of Shaffer and hope Clifford falls apart ala Testaverde, with a final score very similar to that one 35 seasons ago. I don’t see it happening.
Clifford rates higher than Petras this season in completion percentage, QB rating, passing yards and TD throws — basically, every significant passing statistic. Clifford is the better quarterback, even though Petras may be the better game manager as he has thrown only 1 INT all year.
Clifford (3 INTs) has protected the ball nearly as well as Petras, while offering a much more dynamic set of skills and 14 more games worth of starting experience.
And, Clifford can run. Effectively. Creatively. Selectively. Even with sacks added in, Clifford has 137 net rushing yards this season. Petras has minus-50.
Clifford, working in conjunction with daring first-year OC Mike Yurcich, gives Penn State’s offense options that Iowa just doesn’t have. With so many other things seemingly dead-even in this matchup, Clifford will prove to be a huge advantage for the Lions — unless Iowa’s defense turns him into a cross between Testaverde and Taulia Tagovailoa.
Like James Franklin, I’m placing my bet on the battle-tested veteran of 25 major college starts.
The Lions protect the ball
Penn State is 1 of 9 teams in the country that hasn’t lost a fumble, and also 1 of 9 with 2 or fewer fumbles. Sean Clifford has thrown 3 interceptions, never more than 1 in a game. The Lions rank 8th in the country with a +6 turnover differential. Protecting the ball is the biggest factor, among many, for why Penn State is 5-0 and No. 4 in the AP Poll a year after finishing 4-5. Last year, the Lions finished 116th with a -8 differential. What a difference a year makes.
Now, Iowa takes the ball away like nobody’s business. After picking Maryland’s Tagovailoa 5 times last week, the Hawkeyes lead the nation with a +12 differential, with 12 interceptions and 4 fumble recoveries. Penn State will have to prove its new-found ball security is legit. If it does — if it wins or ties the turnover battle — Clifford and the Lions’ overall talent advantage will prevail.
Stout’s powerful right leg
Jordan Stout took over as Penn State’s all-everything kicker this year, squeezing short-FG specialist Jake Pinegar out of a job.
He’s left a few points on the field this season, but he’s nonetheless been a huge weapon. He leads the nation in touchback percentage on kickoffs (28 of 30) and is 7th in the country at better than 48 yards per punt. His field-position gains allowed Penn State’s bend-don’t-break defense to survive in the 16-10 season-opening victory at Wisconsin. That’s a good harbinger for Saturday’s venture into another B1G West opponent’s lair.
Stout has hit 6 of 9 field goal attempts this year, his latest one a 50-yarder. In his PSU career, he’s hit 4 from 50-plus yards with a long of 57. If the game comes down to a long try either way, it’s advantage Penn State. Iowa’s Caleb Shudak is 1-of-3 from 50-plus in his career with a long of 51.
Bold, daring coaching
Franklin, PSU’s 8th-year head coach, seems to have established a go-for-it zone this season that extends out at least 15 yards from the red zone. Last weekend against Indiana, he went for it on a 4th-and-7 from the 33 and a 4-and-4 from the 30. Both times, Clifford completed a pass to keep the drive alive; and both drives ended in touchdowns. Penn State has converted 4 of the past 5 times it has gone for it on 4th down. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is 2-for-5 on the season.
Meanwhile, Yurcich — Penn State’s new QB whisperer and offensive guru — calls an aggressive game with tight end runs, flankers throwing passes and lots of misdirection.
In a matchup of the 2nd- and 3rd-best scoring defenses in the country, a little cleverness and scheming will go a long way.
Advantage, Penn State.
Better talent
According to 247Sports’ team talent rankings, Penn State touts the 16th-best roster in college football, while Iowa is 43rd. Among B1G teams, Penn State is 3rd, Iowa 9th. The Lions have predominantly 4-star talent, the Hawkeyes mostly 3-star.
Granted, Iowa makes the most of said talent. The program’s 11-game winning streak is legit.
But Penn State flat out has better players in certain areas, most notably quarterback and wide receiver, and greater depth at tight end and even running back. The Lions are at least as good at linebacker and in the secondary. Iowa probably has the better offensive line, but as long as Penn State’s front five pass protects well enough, the other advantages will allow Penn State to prevail.
Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.