Penn State at the break: What to make of 5-1 record, No. 7 national ranking

Let’s say Lee Corso or some other swami of college football prognostication could have waived a magic wand in the preseason and granted Penn State a 5-1 record heading into its bye week.

Raise your hand, Penn State fan, if you would have said no. Those with hands in the air, the polygraph is this way. The worst of you might need to check your complaints at the Lasch Building door. You’re not a true fan if you can’t handle a little heartbreak now and then. It comes with the territory.

That’s not to say that fair assessments shouldn’t be part of the Nittany Nation experience, especially now that we suddenly have some free time on our hands. The Lions had Saturday off and host 2-5 Illinois in a glorified scrimmage (insert banal “one week at a time, don’t take any team lightly” banter here) on Oct. 23.

We have 2 weeks to ruminate while hoping Sean Clifford recovers from his mystery injury in time to lead the Lions past Ohio State at The Horseshoe and then on to the College Football Playoff.

Let’s access the Nittany Lions’ situation, with best-case, likely-case and worst-case scenarios:

Best-case scenario

Up until Clifford left the Iowa game early in the second quarter, Penn State’s season was going as well as anyone could have hoped.

The Lions weren’t dominating in all phases, but they were progressing week to week, surviving and advancing. Defense and special teams led the way, and the offense found enough big plays in the passing game while limiting turnovers. Penn State has still not lost a fumble this season, 1 of 6 teams in the country that can say that.

If Clifford and several other wounded Lions can return at 100 percent by Oct. 30 for the trip to Columbus, Penn State will have a shot at running the table in the B1G East. Is it a great shot? No, it’s a longshot. But it’s not totally crazy, either. A gambler might throw a few bucks down in hopes of a big payoff. Serious fans will put their hearts on the line.

Penn State’s defense has not looked this good in many years. The secondary covers tightly. The linebackers tackle surely. Even with veteran tackle PJ Mustipher done for the season, the line should be okay with Dvon Ellies stepping up and transfer Arnold Ebiketie relentlessly working off the edge.

But even the unit’s best efforts might not slow down the Buckeyes, who entered this weekend with the best offense in the country at 562.7 yards per game. Something will have to give, because the PSU defense allows only 312.7 yards per game. Can the Lions rattle red-hot freshman quarterback CJ Stroud, who’s thrown for 10 TDs and no INTs in his past 2 games? We’ll know the answer in less than 2 weeks.

Teams that look invincible do sometimes lose. OSU has a loss already, and Alabama fell to unranked Texas A&M just a little over a week ago.

But Clifford will have to play the game of his life Oct. 30 and take every meaningful snap thereafter for Penn State to make its first CFP.

Most-likely scenario

Even if Clifford is perfectly healthy in time to face Illinois on Oct. 23, Penn State’s offense still has issues. Clifford is the only quarterback who can be trusted to throw the ball, and he also seems to be the only guy in the backfield who can run it effectively. That opens the very real possibility that he could get hurt again.

My case for Clifford as the best QB in the B1G isn’t looking as good as it did 3 weeks ago. He’s up to 5 interceptions thrown, and the first of his 2 against Iowa — giving the Hawkeyes 1st-and-goal — was a bad delivery following an even worse decision. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s Stroud has looked like the best freshman QB in the history of college football the past 2 weeks. And Stroud has more and better weapons (with the exception of Jahan Dotson) with whom to work, including a useful running back in fellow freshman sensation TreVeyon Henderson.

Ohio State has gotten the better of James Franklin’s Lions in 6 of 7 meetings, and that trend is likely to continue. I see the Lions losing at least 1 other game, probably to one of the other B1G East top-10 programs, Michigan and Michigan State.

So, 9-3 at the end of the regular season. With a bowl win, Franklin’s Lions would reach double digits in victories for the 4th time in 5 full seasons.

Worst-case scenario

If Clifford is hurt worse than we know, or if he re-injures his (fill in your favorite internet-rumor body part here: clavicle, ribs, back, head, groin), Mike Yurcich will have to get really creative. Penn State’s new offensive coordinator doesn’t have another quarterback ready to handle a big-game atmosphere.

The defense would still carry the Lions to a few more wins and bowl eligibility, but they’d probably lose to all the remaining ranked teams on the schedule, and maybe one more.

That adds up to 7-5. Ouch.

Luke Glusco

Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.