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Wisconsin lost 3 times within the first month of this season, which could’ve gotten really ugly as the team’s hopes of making the College Football Playoff ended early. Since then, though, Wisconsin has bounced back to win 3 consecutive games and is above .500 for the first time all year.
After taking care of business in conference road games against Illinois and Purdue, Wisconsin will return home for a B1G West matchup against Iowa. If the Badgers win, they are the favorites to win the division. With a loss, a spot in the conference championship would become extremely difficult.
Despite Wisconsin plummeting out of the AP Top 25 and Iowa checking in at No. 2 in the poll just a few weeks ago, the Badgers are slight favorites over the now-No. 9 Hawkeyes. Yes, Wisconsin was favored in losses to Penn State, Notre Dame and Michigan, too. But the Badgers will come out on top on Saturday, and here are 3 reasons why.
An offensive identity
Wisconsin’s offense gets a lot of criticism, and rightfully so, because it’s a unit that ranks No. 88 nationally in yards per play against FBS opponents, but the Badgers have an offensive identity, while Iowa does not. Wisconsin’s passing game doesn’t scare anybody, but thankfully there are other ways to move the ball down the field.
Running backs Chez Mellusi and Braelon Allen emerged as the team’s top two backs over the past 3 games, with Allen rushing for more than 100 yards in each of those contests and Mellusi doing so twice.
In Saturday’s 30-13 win over Purdue, the Badgers recognized their massive advantage at the line of scrimmage and stopped throwing the ball. Graham Mertz attempted just 3 passes over the final 2.5 quarters while Mellusi and Allen ran wild. Mellusi finished with 149 yards and a touchdown, and Allen went for 140 with 2 scores.
Wisconsin has rushed for an average of 293 yards over the past 3 games, so that’s clearly developed into the strength.
But where is Iowa’s strength offensively?
This is masked by a 6-1 record and top-10 ranking, but the Hawkeyes will enter the weekend with an offense that ranks No. 117 in yards per play against FBS opponents. With 3.1 yards per carry and below 60% completions, Iowa doesn’t have much to hang its hat on offensively despite being 7 games into the season.
Better defense
The defenses will be the 2 best units on the field by far, which is why Saturday’s game has the lowest over/under of the weekend in the B1G. The Badgers are slightly better defensively looking at the numbers, as they rank No. 2 nationally in opponent yards per play, while Iowa checks in at No. 6 in that category.
Following the win over Purdue in which the Boilermakers rushed for minus-13 yards, Wisconsin moved into the No. 1 spot (ahead of Georgia) in opponent yards per rush attempt. Teams have rarely found success running the ball against what has developed into an elite front seven with inside linebacker Leo Chenal having a breakout season.
Chenal missed the first 2 games due to COVID-19, but Wisconsin has been able to remain relatively healthy on the defensive side of the ball. Iowa will be without cornerback Riley Moss, who injured his knee against Penn State and missed the Hawkeyes’ loss to Purdue. Without him, Boilermakers wide receiver David Bell was unstoppable with 11 receptions for 240 yards and a touchdown. When he matched up against Wisconsin’s secondary the following week, Bell had his lowest receiving yardage total since November 2019 with 33 yards on 6 receptions. And Iowa has no one in Bell’s stratosphere.
Moss was having a breakout season and is a major reason Iowa has been so good in creating turnovers, with 4 interceptions and a fumble recovery in just 5 games.
Relying on turnovers is unsustainable
The reason Iowa is 6-1 and Wisconsin is 4-3 is as obvious as it gets. The Hawkeyes have dominated turnover margin, and still rank No. 1 in the country, while the Badgers have been dominated. Turnovers can completely change the momentum of games, but the Hawkeyes found out relying on them to win is a difficult thing to do their last time out.
Iowa forced at least 3 turnovers in each of its first 4 games against Power 5 opponents as the Hawkeyes kept winning and vaulted into the No. 2 spot in the polls. It was pretty incredible to watch, but a common question among fans was what would happen if the Hawkeyes did not dominate the turnover battle.
Well, we found that out in Iowa’s 24-7 loss to Purdue. Iowa turned the ball over 4 times and took the ball away just once. For the first time against a Power 5 opponent, the offense did not start many possessions with great field position and needed to complete long drives, and it couldn’t do it.
On the flip side, the lone criticism of Wisconsin’s defense has been its inability to create turnovers. In the Badgers’ win over Purdue, they forced 5, which was more than they had in their first 6 games combined.
To steal some information from CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli’s Twitter account, Iowa has scored 39.8% of its points off of turnovers. Meanwhile, 50.4% of the points Wisconsin has allowed have come via turnovers.
The Badgers are playing at home with a better offense and a better defense. If Paul Chryst hasn’t forced every offensive player to write “Turnovers lose football games” on the chalkboard over and over again Bart Simpson-style, his leadership should be put into question.
With zero turnovers, Wisconsin will beat Iowa on Saturday and put itself in the driver’s seat to win the B1G West.
Erik Buchinger brings his vast experience covering Wisconsin and B1G football to Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @DeceptiveSpeed.