B1G 5: Nebraska’s upcoming tricky transfer trek, another test for OSU, and Michigan’s 2nd life

Each week, college football insider Matt Hayes tackles the hottest topics in the Big Ten. 

1. The B1G Story

Mel Tucker has revealed the path to quick change, a movement so impactful over the course of one season, others will now follow.

Case in point: Nebraska, and the curious decision to keep coach Scott Frost.

When athletic director Trev Alberts announced earlier this week that Frost – who hasn’t had a winning season in 4 years at his alma mater – would be given another season to make it work, he all but signed off on Frost and his restructured staff scouring the transfer portal and junior college ranks to find immediate impact players.

Because right now, Nebraska is ranked 71st in the 247Sports composite recruiting rankings and the odds of improving that number over the next 5 weeks until National Signing Day – with high school players knowing this is a one-shot deal for Frost — are limited.  The only answer is the transfer portal.

This is where the once proud Nebraska program stands — picking through the transfer portal, desperately trying to find spare parts to make the machine run again.

This is where we return to Tucker, and his impact on the way programs are built.

What he has accomplished at Michigan State in Year 2 – with 20 transfers (portal and JC) this season — has been remarkable. Until last week’s upset loss at Purdue, the Spartans were the talk of college football, and Tucker has rocketed to the top of wish lists at blueblood programs LSU and USC.

In the tenuous age of the transfer portal, where there are significantly more players in the portal than scholarships available, Tucker has proven you can turn around a program and win immediately by recruiting the portal smartly.

Understand this: there’s a reason players are in the transfer portal, and most times, it’s not positive. They’ve left their previous school because they couldn’t get on the field, or because they didn’t like the coaching staff, or they wanted (or needed) a fresh start.

No matter the reason, it’s a crapshoot – even more than high school recruiting and player development — because you’re typically investing in 1 or 2 seasons, not 3 or 4 with high school players.

Still, look at these impact transfer players Tucker landed in the offseason:

• TB Kenneth Walker III, Wake Forest: The nation’s leading rusher, and a Heisman Trophy candidate.
• OT Jarrett Horst, Arkansas State: One of the three best left tackles in the Big Ten.
• LB Quavaris Crouch, Tennessee: Second on the team in tackles (72 tackles, 2 sacks).
• CBs Chester Kimbrough (Florida), Ronald Williams (Alabama) and Marqui Lowery (Louisville): The Nos. 1, 2 and 3 corners on the team, they have rebuilt the team’s leaky secondary.

This risky process – and make no mistake, what Tucker did is rare – is what Nebraska now calls home. Frost has a 15-27 overall record (3-7 this season), hasn’t reached the postseason and hasn’t shown he can consistently win at the Power 5 level.

He’s recruiting on a 1-year, make-or-break contract, and is now supposed to win the hearts and minds of transfer portal players to make it all work in Lincoln.

Wait, it gets better.

Another potentially harrowing reality: Frost must keep his players from leaving for the portal. Frost will likely have to convince 4-year starting QB Adrian Martinez — who could leave for the NFL or stay for a 5th season – and a handful of other potential starters to stay for the one-shot season instead of playing for an established program that can compete for a championship.

More disconcerting: Transfer portal players will arrive at Nebraska to a completely revamped offense. Frost fired 4 offensive assistants hours after he was told by Alberts that he had one more year – and after they agreed that Frost would take a $1 million pay cut to his annual salary (now $4 million) and reduce his buyout by 50 percent (now at $7.5 million).

“We all recognize our record has not been what anyone wants it to be,” Alberts said. “I have been clear that I have been looking for incremental progress, and I have seen that in several key areas this season.”

Now it must carry over to 2022, with a 1-year Hail Mary through the transfer portal.

One way or the other, this final goodwill gesture from NU to Frost could have repercussions on the program for years.

2. Ohio State D on the spot

We’ve heard very little of the Ohio State defense since Kerry Coombs was demoted and Matt Barnes promoted.

Very little in a good way.

In the 5 games since Barnes took over running the defense, Ohio State has given up an average of 15.6 points per game. Those games, though, were against the 65th (Nebraska), 73rd (Maryland), 78th (Penn State), 113th (Rutgers) and 117th (Indiana) scoring offenses in the nation.

Everything changes this week against Purdue.

At first look, Purdue falls in line with the aforementioned group, with the 90th-ranked scoring offense in the nation.

But take a look at what Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell and WR David Bell have done against top 5 opponents Iowa and Michigan State (both wins):

• O’Connell: 70-of-94 (74 percent), 911 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs.
• Bell: 22 catches, 457 yards, 2 TDs

It is here where we explain that the Ohio State pass defense is 11th in the 14-team Big Ten, giving up 247.2 yards per game. Ohio State has struggled in man coverage this season, and has had to move to zone at times.

The one variable helping coverage is the ability to affect the quarterback: The Buckeyes lead the Big Ten with 33 sacks – and Purdue is 12th in the Big Ten in sacks allowed (25).

Translation: If Ohio State can pressure O’Connell, the odds of winning drastically increase. And if Barnes’ defense can’t, it’s going to get interesting in Columbus.

“Aidan is really playing at a high level right now,” said Purdue coach Jeff Brohm. “He’s understanding that, hey, let’s get the ball out, let’s get it to our playmakers, let’s not turn the ball over. He has done a really good job of taking care of the ball and making sure that we don’t give the other team another possession. And that’s been critical for our success.”

3. A clear path

It’s November, and Michigan is still playing games that matter. In fact, the Wolverines aren’t that far from playing for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

That’s right, the Playoff.

“Good days will be the goal now as we go down the stretch,” Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh said. “Good day of meetings, good day of practice, and then go play the game.”

Think about that. After yet another demoralizing loss to Michigan State 2 weeks ago, which was yet another loss to a top 10 team, Michigan is still in position to reach the elite level many thought was a given with the arrival of Harbaugh in 2015.

In 7 uneven seasons under Harbaugh, Michigan has been in this position 3 times. All 3 times the season ended with a loss to Ohio State in The Game.

That all could change this weekend at Penn State, the first step in a run of 3 games that can put Michigan a game away from the CFP race. After all that angst 2 weeks ago in East Lansing, Michigan nearly controls its destiny.

The only need: another Michigan State loss (Maryland, at Ohio State, Penn State). Get that, and wins at Penn State and Maryland, and they’re set up for a fourth time to beat Ohio State and potentially reach championship goals.

Suddenly, this week at Penn State – in front of a loud, intimidating crowd where Michigan hasn’t won since Harbaugh’s first season — becomes the game of the season for the Wolverines.

4. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll and one big thing: best case scenario for November.

1. Ohio State: Win out, and sharpen a passing game that needs to be near perfect to win in the Playoff.

2. Michigan State: QB Payton Thorne plays big in big games, Spartans win out and play for B1G and CFP spot.

3. Michigan: Don’t play defense down the stretch like the defense played against Michigan State.

4. Purdue: Another top 5 upset (this time of Ohio State) would give Boilers the 3 best wins of any CFB team – and they still need Wisconsin and Minnesota to lose to make the B1G CG.

5. Wisconsin: Win 3 games as the heavy favorite (Northwestern, Nebraska, Minnesota), and reach B1G CG for the 7th time in 11 years.

6. Iowa: QB Alex Padilla protects the ball, defense wins games and Hawkeyes get to 10 wins.

7. Penn State: Disappointing season can be saved with wins over Michigan and Michigan State.

8. Minnesota: Make the change to QB Cole Kramer, and ignite a passing offense that has struggled all season.

9. Illinois: Winning 2 games and getting bowl eligible is one thing; beating Northwestern is everything.

10. Maryland: Beat Rutgers on Nov.27, and get bowl eligible for first time since 2016.

11. Nebraska: Two difficult wins (at Wisconsin, Iowa) to finish the season to help convince transfer portal players NU is heading in right direction under Frost.

12. Northwestern: One win in the final 3 games to avoid 6 straight losses to finish the season.

13. Rutgers: Get 2 wins from 3 games (at Indiana, at Penn State, Maryland), and get bowl eligible for the first time since 2014.

14. Indiana: Beat Rutgers Saturday, stop 7-game losing streak to Power 5 teams. Then split with Minnesota and Purdue.

5. The Weekly Five

Five picks against the spread:

Minnesota at Iowa (-5.5)
Michigan (Pick) at Penn State
Maryland at Michigan State (-13)
Northwestern (+25) at Wisconsin
Purdue (+20) at Ohio State

Last week: 2-3
Season:  34-16