Orange Bowl: Early thoughts for Michigan vs. Georgia in CFP semifinal

It’s rapidly approaching and it’s widely considered to be the premier matchup of the college football postseason: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia in the Capital One Orange Bowl on New Year’s Eve at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

The winner, of course, takes on the winner of Alabama and Cincinnati for all the marbles.

Georgia was certainly expected to be in this position. Michigan was not.

That makes for some intrigue, doesn’t it?

All eyes will be watching when the Wolverines face off with the Bulldogs at the end of the month. Michigan had a few of the highest-rated games on TV this season, so you already know it’s going to be a ratings blockbuster.

Let’s take a look at some odds and stats, and make some educated predictions. Of course, things could change due to injury, players opting out (which is unlikely in this case) or other situations — so these predictions will be based upon current information. This piece is part of a mini-series leading up to the Orange Bowl that will include various predictions, access match-ups, and break down stats and tendencies.

But for now, let’s cover the odds and two staples of success for Michigan.

Odds

Depending on where you have looked during the past couple of weeks, Georgia has been favored by 3.5-9 points. While the betting odds may be against Michigan, the on-field odds should be pretty even. We’re not talking about an impossible task for the Wolverines. The Bulldogs are beatable and were shelled by Alabama, 41-24, in the SEC Championship Game. Meanwhile, the Wolverines clobbered Iowa, 42-3, in the Big Ten Championship Game.

So if you’re a fan of momentum, Michigan might be the smart pick. After all, the Wolverines have won 5 straight since MSU week, including their first win over Ohio State since 2011.

Regardless of odds, the Orange Bowl promises to be a good one. Don’t expect a blowout, like UM’s and UGA’s conference title games were a couple of weeks ago.

Michigan will run well

Georgia had the No. 3-ranked rushing defense this season, allowing 87.1 yards per game. UGA’s defense was one for the ages during the regular season, often appearing as a once-in-a-generation type of unit. During the SEC Championship Game, Alabama rushed for 115 yards — with 40 of those yards coming from Heisman-winning QB Bryce Young.

Predicting a colossal outing for Michigan RBs might be a bit of a stretch, but Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum will certainly be difference-makers. Haskins may not hurdle his way to 150, and Corum may not tear up the sidelines for 150 — but one of them will do something to lead UM’s ground efforts.

Along with freshman Donovan Edwards, the Wolverines have a three-pronged attack waiting to challenge the Bulldogs, who haven’t seen a better group all season.

According to Pro Football Focus, Haskins and Corum were No. 1 and No. 2 in overall grades for Big Ten RBs. Edwards, of course, is a rising true freshman who had a nice 8-carry, 86-yard outing against Northern Illinois earlier in the year. Don’t mistake his lack of stats for lack of explosiveness. Given the right circumstances, Edwards could have a huge day on the ground.

On a solo mission, Haskins or Corum would push Georgia to its season average of 87.1 yards surrendered. Combined, they’ll likely top 120 yards on the day. One of them will end up carrying the weight. Haskins seems more likely, since Corum is still nursing an ankle injury; he played a few snaps vs. Ohio State while not at 100 percent, but should be good to go New Year’s Eve.

Michigan will protect Cade McNamara

As a whole, the Wolverines were the third-least-sacked team in college football, giving up only 10 spread among the 4 QBs who saw action this season: Cade McNamara, backup JJ McCarthy, Dan Vilari and Alex Bowman. McNamara was only put to the ground during 5 or 6 of those instances. He’s been upright and protected all season. Michigan’s O-line, led by Andrew Stueber, Ryan Hayes and Andrew Vastardis, provided excellent protection all year and there is no reason to believe that will stop during the postseason.

Though Georgia averaged 3.15 sacks per game, No. 14 in the nation, the Wolverines have enough to hold off the Bulldogs’ foursome with 4.5 or more sacks this season, led by LBs Adam Anderson, who had 6 sacks, and Nakobe Dean, who had 5.

The Bulldogs will get into the backfield. That’s what they do. But they won’t sack McNamara more than twice.

Final thoughts … for now

When it comes to the Orange Bowl, there is a lot to digest and compartmentalize in regard to Michigan and Georgia. Is Michigan a Team of Destiny? UM coach Jim Harbaugh has talked about believing in “miracles” and seizing the moment, etc. From unranked in the preseason, to No. 2 in the nation and B1G champs — the Wolverines seem to have a great storyline on their side.

But what about Georgia? Redemption for a whupping that came at the hands of Alabama? Beat Michigan, possibly get a rematch? Or face off with Cincy in the College Football Playoff final?

There will be more to come as the game approaches. More breakdowns. We’ll take a look at some individual match-ups as well. A score prediction and more will follow. For now, covering two of the biggest issues will suffice. Michigan will run the ball well and protect McNamara, which always led to success during the Wolverines’ 11-1 run during the regular season.

Adam Biggers

Adam Biggers brings his expertise on the Michigan beat to Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @AdamBiggers81.