Alex Hickey: It’s probable only 1 Big Ten team will be in the CFP top 4 — for now

There remains enough of a jumble among College Football Playoff contenders that multiple fan bases are going to be displeased when the first CFP rankings are unveiled Tuesday night. That’s the reality of the math facing the committee when 7 teams can make a compelling case to be placed in the top 4.

And we already know which direction the committee is heading with the top 2 spots.

Georgia and Tennessee are going to be ranked first and second, with only the order undetermined. Maybe the Bulldogs are No. 1 on the basis of their dominant performance against a very good Oregon team in the season opener. Or maybe the Volunteers get the nod thanks to beating Alabama.

But with the two teams facing one another this weekend, it seems impossible that the committee will resist the temptation to tee up a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup. Especially when the argument for creating it is hardly a stretch.

But will the two SEC teams obviously in the mix be joined by a pair of Big Ten teams? I don’t think so. Yet. Because I have a feeling the committee will send a message about scheduling.

Why Michigan (or Ohio State) is likely to be on the outside looking in

To anyone with a working set of eyeballs, Michigan looks like a Playoff team. But to this point, the Wolverines have not played what anyone can call a CFP-caliber schedule. And that’s why you shouldn’t expect to see Michigan in the top 4 this week.

Of the 7 current CFP contenders, Michigan is the only team that does not play a Power 5 opponent in its non-conference schedule. And that needs to mean something.

Ohio State challenged itself by scheduling Notre Dame, although the Fighting Irish are nothing special this season. But they aren’t Hawaii, either.

TCU opened its season at Colorado. And the Buffaloes are one of the worst teams in the Power 5 this season. But going on the road against what is nominally a Power 5 opponent counts for something.

The Horned Frogs also have wins over 2 teams that are currently ranked in the AP poll: No. 18 Oklahoma State and No. 13 Kansas State. Michigan and Ohio State both have just 1 ranked win each, both beating No. 16 Penn State.

Undefeated Clemson is also going to be in this mix, and the Tigers have 3 wins over Top 25 teams: No. 20 Wake Forest, No. 21 NC State and No. 22 Syracuse.

It’s plausible Clemson could get placed as high as third, though its narrow margins of victory would make that a miscalculation on the committee’s part. The Tigers don’t look better than Michigan or Ohio State. But they do have better wins.

These 4 teams should be ranked from 3-6 in some order; the question is who goes where. (Sorry, Bama, you’ll have to settle for 7th for the time being.)

My guess on the order:

• 1/2: Georgia or Tennessee
• 3/4: Ohio State or TCU (outside shot: Clemson)
• 5/6: Clemson or Michigan (outside shot: Ohio State or Alabama)

Michigan may very well be the best of those teams. But the committee may not be ready to anoint the Wolverines as such yet. They committee members tend to care about who you’ve played, and the Wolverines have only played 2 good teams this season — Maryland and Penn State.

Of course, that’s also true of Ohio State. Outside of Penn State and Notre Dame, the Buckeyes have beaten up on weak opponents.

Though I don’t expect it, there is even a chance the committee decides that’s reason to keep both the Buckeyes and Wolverines out of their initial top 4. They have weirdly similar resumes, which makes them difficult to distinguish. I’m not sure how anyone can definitively state one is better than the other.

Ohio State blew out Iowa and beat Penn State by 13 points. Michigan blew out Penn State and beat Iowa by 13 points. Both handled Michigan State without issue. The Buckeyes just have a slight scheduling edge on merit of playing a real non-conference opponent.

Fortunately, this issue is going to resolve itself.

Trust the process

Either Georgia or Tennessee is guaranteed to lose this weekend, which theoretically creates an opening for the remaining undefeateds.

On top of that, Clemson visits Notre Dame on Saturday. This will give us a very direct idea of how the Tigers stack up compared to Ohio State. And it’s certainly more plausible Clemson exits the weekend with a loss than Michigan or Ohio State. The Buckeyes visit Northwestern while the Wolverines go to Rutgers.

As for TCU, the Big 12 is the only league in the country where it feels like every team from 1-10 has a chance any given week. There aren’t any gimmes in TCU’s remaining 4 regular season games or the Big 12 title game.

For the sake of argument, though, let’s say there are 5 unbeaten teams 2 weeks from now: the Georgia-Tennessee winner, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson and TCU. All 10-0.

That’s where the schedule turns strongly in Michigan’s favor. The Wolverines host Illinois in the 11th game for both teams. And if the Illini are 9-1 heading into that game, a Michigan win might push the Wolverines ahead of TCU and Clemson. Or even Ohio State.

And really, that’s what this all boils down to. It doesn’t matter where Ohio State or Michigan is ranked right now.

The matter will be settled on the field at Ohio Stadium on Nov. 26. The winner of that game will likely be 12-0 and ranked no lower than No. 2 heading to the Big Ten championship game. And depending on how things play out elsewhere, we may have a better chance of seeing Ohio State and Michigan both reach the actual College Football Playoff than be ranked in the initial top 4.

Alex Hickey

Alex Hickey is an award-winning writer who has watched Big Ten sports since it was a numerically accurate description of league membership. Alex has covered college football and basketball since 2008, with stops on the McNeese State, LSU and West Virginia beats before being hired as Saturday Tradition's Big Ten columnist in 2021. He is an Illinois native and 2004 Indiana University graduate.