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Iowa footballl: Hawkeyes can win B1G West, but it starts by winning Floyd of Rosedale
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Kirk Ferentz is about to do it for Iowa, isn’t he?
A limited offense? No concern. Stellar defensive play to close out November? His specialty since the early 2000s.
Back-to-back B1G West titles? A first in program history.
Who would have thought that was a reality as message boards called for Kirk and Brian Ferentz’s heads on a silver platter following a 151-yard, 6-turnover outing in Columbus in mid-October?
Four teams are currently tied at 4-3 entering Week 12. Iowa, Purdue, Illinois and Minnesota all stand a chance of representing the “other” division in Indianapolis for the B1G Championship.
Another loss, however, will eliminate the Hawkeyes. Iowa faces off against Minnesota Saturday at Huntington Bank Stadium, so 1 of the 2 won’t have to worry long about being a division contender.
The Hawkeyes are a 2.5-point underdog against the Golden Gophers. Iowa’s been favored once in its little 3-game winning streak, and that was against Northwestern, which still is looking for its first win on American soil since 2021. The offense remains as dead as disco, but the defense has killed offensive production for both Purdue and Wisconsin over the past 2 games.
The Boilermakers totaled 255 yards while Iowa forced 2 turnovers in a 24-3 win. A week later, the Badgers outgained the Hawkeyes 227-146, but 3 turnovers paid dividends in a 24-10 win.
That’s Iowa’s formula for winning. At this point, the 2-game wonder of Brian Ferentz’s potent play-calling has evaporated, so it’s back to what works best. That starts with making offenses one-dimensional and forcing 3-and-outs.
Do that, and Iowa stands a chance this weekend in keeping the 98.3-pound porker that is the Floyd of Rosedale trophy in Iowa City for another season.
The focus is on Golden Gophers’ Mo Ibrahim
Everything halts for the Hawkeyes faithful should Iowa fall outside of Minneapolis on Saturday. In reality, the biggest threat to stopping Iowa resides in Minnesota’s backfield with Mo Ibrahim. Much like Michigan’s Blake Corum and Illinois’ Chase Brown, Ibrahim falls in the “challenging” category when it comes to stopping him from moving the sticks.
Ibrahim, whose 18-game streak of rushing for 100+ yards dates to 2019, has been a menace in conference play. He’s averaging 5 yards on 29 carries per game since Week 4. Last week, Ibrahim totaled a B1G-high 178 yards and 3 touchdowns against Northwestern.
As for the rest of Minnesota’s offense? It finished with 188 total yards.
Without veteran quarterback Tanner Morgan commanding the huddle, the Golden Gophers have become predictable offensively. Freshman Athan Kaliakmanis hasn’t completed more than 9 passes in a game since taking over against Penn State. He’s yet to throw more than 25 times in an outing. Over the past 3 games, the Golden Gophers have run 231 plays. On a whopping 45% (106) of the snaps, they’ve given the ball to Ibrahim.
Just because the Hawkeyes currently own the nation’s 8th-best run defense doesn’t guarantee stops at the line of scrimmage. Illinois, which ranks 6th in run defense, allowed Ibrahim to average 8.5 yards per snap while rushing for 127 yards in a 26-14 Illini win. Penn State, which is holding runners to 3.6 yards per carry, allowed Ibrahim to total over 100 yards on 30 carries.
Let’s just say the Hawkeyes end Ibrahim’s triple-digit streak on Saturday. Is that enough to win? It depends on the offense and the defense’s ability to create turnovers. In last week’s win over the Badgers, Iowa totaled 146 yards of offense, 5 yards less than its blowout loss to Ohio State.
How did it win? The turnover battle. Graham Mertz threw 2 interceptions, including a 32-yard pick-6 by Cooper DeJean. He also had a 4th quarter fumble, allowing Leshon Williams to run out the clock in 3 plays.
That likely is the formula to winning on Saturday. Kaliakmanis hasn’t thrown a pick in his last 2 games, but he has completed less than 55% of his passes. The Golden Gophers are also 11-of-37 (29.7%) on 3rd-down conversions.
History on Hawkeyes’ side?
The 1 team PJ Fleck can’t seem to conquer is Iowa. He’s 0-5 against Kirk Ferentz and has been outscored 150-89 since 2017. As a program, the Golden Gophers haven’t won Floyd of Rosedale since 2015.
From the outside perspective, Iowa could get a boost thanks to Michigan. The Illini travel to Ann Arbor to take on the No. 3 team in the nation that feature’s the No. 1 run defense. Eliminate Brown’s legs, eliminate Illinois’ chances of potentially winning its 1st B1G title since 2001.
Iowa very well could take the lead in the race for 1st place entering the final week of the regular season, but it can’t sleep on Minnesota. Ibrahim is dangerous enough to carry the Golden Gophers from burrow to burrow, ruining the B1G hopes for others in the process.
So long as the Hawkeyes don’t overthink Saturday’s matchup, another win could be on the horizon. With that, the dream of returning to Lucas Oil Stadium might actually become a reality.
Cole Thompson is a freelance writer for Saturday Tradition who has covered college football and the NFL for multiple websites. Thompson is currently based in Houston, Texas, and also can be heard daily on SportsMap National Radio's 'Just Sayin It' from 3am-6am.