Penn State football: The Lions don’t belong in the top 10? Yeah but …

Penn State has only 6 wins over ranked teams in the 4 years Sean Clifford has started at quarterback, and none this season.

So it’s hard to make a strong case that the Nittany Lions should be higher in the polls and CFP rankings than they current are without resorting to “yeah but” arguments. Yeah but … there are some pretty solid “yeah buts” available.

So, with Penn State (9-2, 6-2 B1G East) at No. 10 in the coaches poll and No. 11 in the AP, let’s play that game while awaiting the latest installment of the Playoff rankings on Tuesday night.

Yeah but …

• Tennessee (9-2, No. 9 AP) just lost 63-38 to unranked, 4-loss South Carolina. The Gamecocks scored on 5 straight possessions to start the game and racked up 606 yards. Maybe the Vols’ 52-49 home win over Alabama shouldn’t carry the weight it apparently does.
• Speaking of Alabama (9-2, No. 8), the Tide not only have losses to Tennessee and LSU, they have narrow escapes against unranked, 4-loss Texas and 4-7 Texas A&M. Nick Saban even dusted off the “these are just college kids and they’re working their butts off” speech for the fan base. Relatively speaking, it’s a down year for Bama.
• LSU (9-2, No. 6) is enjoying a 5-game winning streak and the Tide bump from its 32-31 home victory over Bama 3 weeks ago. But it owns a 40-13 loss to defensively challenged Tennessee along with its season-opening setback to unranked and now 3-loss Florida State.
• Oregon (9-2, No. 10) squeezed past Utah 20-17 in a battle of 8-2 teams Saturday night. I stayed up and watched, and I wasn’t impressed. Each team committed 3 turnovers and neither looked top 10 worthy.
• Penn State (9-2, No. 11) is the only non-undefeated team in the country whose conquerors haven’t lost. The Lions have the “best losses” in all the land.

The flip side of the argument is that Penn State hasn’t had anything close to a signature win since beating No. 22 Auburn in Week 3 last year. Its best win in the Clifford era came 2 weeks earlier in the 2021 season-opener, which it won 16-10 on the road over No. 12 Wisconsin. To find a top 10 conquest, you have to go back to the miracle victory over No. 2 Ohio State in 2016.

Another negative checkmark for James Franklin’s program is that Michigan absolutely flattened the Lions and Ohio State made them blink in the fourth quarter to pull away. Lions fans who watched both games know the Lions rolled over against the Wolverines but played even or better against the Buckeyes outside of 4 disastrous turnovers. Still, the results are what they are.

But in November, the Lions have looked like a juggernaut, ripping inferior competition by a combined 130-24. Stomping quarterback-depleted Indiana and Rutgers doesn’t count for much, but shutting out Taulia Tagovailoa and Maryland should. The Terps got off the mat a week later and took Ohio State to the final seconds. Those same Terps played Michigan within a touchdown in Week 4.

So maybe this November version of the Lions is legit. The young, deep, freshman-led roster sure seems to be coming together, especially the defense under first-year coordinator Manny Diaz. The offensive line, down several starters, continues to hold up. Scheme changes — the full-house backfield set in particular — have helped the guys up front, as have the yards-after-contact and breakaway abilities of freshman backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

Penn State gets its last regular-season chance to boost its resume when Michigan State (5-6, 3-5) visits Beaver Stadium on Saturday for a 4 p.m. kickoff (FS1). If the Lions cover the 18-point spread to cap of their first perfect November since 2016, all the rankings stuff and bowl scenarios should come into focus.

Other dominoes will fall around the country the next 2 weekends. LSU will likely take a 3rd loss when it faces No. 1 Georgia in the SEC title game. USC (10-1, No. 5) is far from home free with No. 18 Notre Dame and the Pac-12 title game still on tap.

A lot could still happen, and the Lions could wind up anywhere from the Rose Bowl to a New Year’s 6 game or, probably at worst, one on New Year’s Day.

Wherever the Lions land, it’s all but certain that they’ll have a chance to end a 22-game stretch without a victory over a ranked team.

That’ll have to do for this year, and a January win would launch an offseason of optimism in Happy Valley. Step 1 is proving on Senior Day against Mel Tucker’s Spartans that this latest 3-game winning streak isn’t a mirage. This is no time for a bad loss.

Luke Glusco

Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.