The Big 10: What happens if Ohio State gets blown out in Peach Bowl?

Every Tuesday, Matt Hayes tackles the 10 hottest topics in the Big Ten …

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1. The B1G Story

Nothing about it feels right. This is the most unpredictable moment of Ohio State football in decades.

And that’s the problem.

Talented enough to win it all, disjointed enough to get blown out.

“I see a team that realizes that not a lot of people give us a chance,” said Ohio State coach Ryan Day. “I think there’s a good look in our guys’ eyes.”

That’s good to hear for all things scarlet and gray. Because there’s anger and uncertainty in the echo chamber.

It’s a destructive and deflating combination for Day, including but not limited to:

— Back-to-back losses in The Game.

— An embarrassing defensive performance in last year’s Rose Bowl that led to high-profile change at defensive coordinator, and a false sense of improvement this season — until The Game.

— 1-2 record in the Playoff, the last of 2 losses a blowout to Alabama in the national championship game.

— Day is more John Cooper than Urban Meyer or Jim Tressel.

If all that weren’t enough, Ohio State failed to close on a handful of blue-chip recruits last week (yet still finished 6th in the 247Sports composite team rankings), and now it’s all falling apart in the eyes and ears of the echo chamber. After all, it also lost the commitment of 2024 elite QB Dylan Raiola within the past 2 weeks.

The future somehow looks more tenuous for Day than it did last month, when Michigan emasculated the Buckeyes at home in a game Ohio State pointed to since a 2021 loss to the Wolverines.

Despite a 45-5 career record. Despite 3 Playoff appearances in 5 seasons.

Despite finishing no less than 6th in every final AP poll in 4 previous seasons. Despite doing everything he was hired to do except beat Michigan every single season (a ridiculous ask), and win a national championship.

Remember in July when Day made this oddly prescient statement: “A lot of times, you go 11-2 and win the Rose Bowl, you say that’s one heckuva season. Well, not around here.”

If Ohio State does get blown out against Georgia in the Peach Bowl — as many believe could happen — will what Day has accomplished in 5 seasons be enough?

2. No excuses, just results

Let’s begin with an excuse: Ohio State has played a majority of the season without 2 critical players: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and RB TreVeyon Henderson.

Smith-Njigba played all of 2 quarters this season, and Henderson has been dinged all season with numerous injuries. As important as quarterback CJ Stroud is to the Buckeyes, this is a different team without Smith-Njigba and Henderson.

But there are 5-star recruits behind Smith-Njigba and Henderson on the roster, and if they’re not responding, guess who that falls on?

Is it fair? Of course not. But that same echo chamber sees Michigan lose its Heisman Trophy candidate (RB Blake Corum), and the guy replacing him (Donovan Edwards) runs for 200-plus yards and rips off scoring runs of 75 and 85 yards in The Game.

But understand this: Ohio State is no different than Michigan, even though the Wolverines now have the upper hand. They’re both chasing the same thing.

They fight over a game and a rivalry and 365 reasons to hate each other, but when it matters most, they’re both trying to find a way to beat the best team in the SEC. And they’re a long way from Ezekiel Elliott running all over Alabama in the first year of the Playoff.

But that’s all the Ohio State faithful see, and wonder why it can’t be that way now. Because that team was built by Meyer in the mold of an SEC team.

It had elite skill players like the 2022 team (enough, in fact, to win it all with a backup quarterback), but it was built on the lines of scrimmage. Defensive linemen Joey Bosa and Michael Bennett and Adolphus Washington, and offensive linemen Billy Price, Taylor Decker and Pat Elflein.   

That team was built to trade blows at the point of attack. This Ohio State team is built to avoid them.

That team got down 21-6 to Alabama and proceeded to beat Alabama in every way imaginable.

If this team gets down 21-6, they’ll lose 49-21.

Want to know why “not a lot of people” — in the words of Day —  give Ohio State a chance? Because Ohio State has yet to prove it can line up and trade blows at the point of attack.

If it can against Georgia — and anyone else in the national championship game — it has the skill players to win it all. Even without Smith-Njigba and Henderson.

3. The final move

Let’s say Ohio State does what Vegas oddsmakers expect (lose to Georgia) — or worse, gets blown out.

What then with Day and Ohio State?

The echo chamber will grow louder, he’ll become more frustrated with the win-it-all-or-fail aura (what coach wouldn’t?), and there’s only 1 thing left.

Does he get frustrated and return to the NFL, to a league that’s emphasizing the quarterback and a successful pass offense more than ever?

Or is it possible something more groundbreaking occurs that shakes the Big Ten to its core, just a year away from its expansion to add USC and UCLA in 2024.

Something that could reshape the power structure of the conference.

4. The B1G shift

We’ve already outlined how Day could leave for the NFL. It’s also not out of the question that Day and Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh leave for the NFL after the Playoff.

Harbaugh interviewed with the Vikings last season, and the well-documented interview didn’t exactly go as planned. Every NFL scout and personnel director I’ve spoken to believes Harbaugh wants back in the league, that it’s only a matter of time and fit.

Now imagine the Big Ten without Day and Harbaugh, leaving the 2 bell-cow programs in search of new coaches in a quickly changing era of college football.

It won’t take much to put both programs in that uneasy position of having to get it right with so much on the line.

At the same time.

5. The Weekly 5

Five reasons to feel good about Matt Rhule at Nebraska:

1. He’s not Scott Frost — which is to say, he’s not under pressure, on name alone, from Day 1.

2. He’s attacking the job with positivity, embracing the state with a high school tour of sorts. That stuff has lasting impact.

3. Landed a top-30 recruiting class, despite program uncertainty over the last year.

4. Got a starting quarterback (Jeff Sims) and potential elite defensive lineman (Elijah Jeudy) from the transfer portal within the first 2 weeks it was open.

5. Have you seen what he did at Baylor and Temple?

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes the prospects of a draft-eligible Big Ten player. This week: Iowa DE Lukas Van Ness. 

“An intriguing guy. He’s tall and long, but still has good bend and plays with leverage. He’s athletic and he works. He just never stops. He’s not one of those explosive guys off the edge, but he’s going to win his share. He does play too tall at times when engaging. He can bend and flow, but when he’s standing and playing tall, he’s all arms and hands — and most tackles in the league can handle those guys. Those are things that can easily be tweaked.”

7.  Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: The New Year resolution.

1. Michigan: Do whatever you can to keep your coach.

2. Ohio State: See: Michigan.

3. Penn State: Believe in QB Drew Allar. Throw it, and throw it more.

4. Purdue: The QB has arrived (Hudson Card), now get skill around him to succeed.

5. Illinois: The culture has changed under coach Bret Bielema. How does it respond to adversity (losing DC Ryan Walters, and a new QB)?

6. Minnesota: After 4 years of clinging to Tanner Morgan and a plodding offense, move into 21st Century with dual-threat quarterback.

7. Maryland: The entire portal window should be directed at changing the face of a defense that has wilted in big games.

8. Iowa: Brian Ferentz must write this on the grease board 1,000 times: I will throw the ball on first down.

9. Wisconsin: Don’t complain while the offense drastically changes under OC Phil Longo. It won’t happen overnight.

10. Michigan State: Continue pulling back on portal additions and moving toward building through high school recruiting.

11. Nebraska: Don’t treat this rebuild differently than Baylor and Temple. Same idea, same buy-in — with an easier way to procure immediate impact talent through the portal.

12. Rutgers: New OC must open up the offense, and move it more toward a pass-based system.

13. Indiana: Recapture the idea of playing for each other that was the backbone of 2020 season.

14. Northwestern: Embrace winning in today’s college football (the portal), even if it goes against what made you so unique for so long.   

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: Does the Big Ten have to win the national title this season with 2 teams in the CFP? — Kirk Dunst, Chicago.

Kirk:

Let me take you back to the 2020 season, when the ACC had 2 teams in the Playoff. Notre Dame (admittedly a 1-time ACC team that year) lost by 17 to Alabama in 1 semifinal, and Clemson lost to Ohio State by 21 in the other.

That doesn’t mean Michigan and Ohio State won’t get out of the semifinals, but it’s all about matchups when you get to this point. Ohio State athletically matches up with Georgia, but I’m not sure the Buckeyes’ offensive line can win against the Georgia defensive line.

Michigan is the biggest favorite of the semifinals, but also has the biggest unknown with TCU. The Horned Frogs have spent the entire season winning games in the fourth quarter — including a couple of games they probably shouldn’t have won. TCU throws the ball efficiently and is +9 in turnover margin — both critical factors to winning in the Big 12. The problem: That formula hasn’t translated yet in the Playoff (the Big 12 is 0-4 in Playoff games).

I think the favorites will advance, and if there is an upset, Ohio State has a better chance of beating Georgia than TCU does beating Michigan.    

9. Numbers

21. Since Ohio State won the first Playoff in 2014, the Big Ten is 1-5 in Playoff games — losing by an average of 21 points a game.

10. Quote to note

Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh: “To be 13-0, my mouth has a hard time even forming that. It’s very unfamiliar to say that in relation to football. It sounds like a hot start to a basketball season.”