The B1G 10: Michigan far from convicted, Penn State conflicted, Ohio State constricted

1. The B1G Story

Don’t jump to conclusions just yet. There’s a long way to go with the Michigan cheating investigation, and there’s a threshold of truth and reality that has yet to be crossed.

Proving that Michigan cheated while attempting to gain a competitive advantage — because that’s what the NCAA’s sign stealing investigation is — is a heavy lift.

It’s not the ticky-tack sign stealing that every program does, or tries to do, on game day. It’s advance scouting of future opponents by use of video devices — in this case, a phone — to record signs and use it as future game preparation.

It’s an elaborate and devious conspiracy, one that includes multiple entry points of investigation that will rely on a murky connect the dots process.

I wrote last weekend that it may be next to impossible for the NCAA to prove this was happening without specific video evidence. Well, we may just have that.

Key word: may.

ESPN is reporting that “video evidence” is expected to be sent to the NCAA this week from rival Big Ten schools, detailing the sign stealing with video from stadium surveillance cameras. Those cameras allegedly found a person in the seat of a ticket purchased by Michigan staffer Connor Stalions — whom Michigan suspended with pay last weekend until the investigation is complete — holding his phone up and filming the home team’s sideline the entire game.

ESPN is also reporting that multiple sources claim Stalions bought tickets to as many as 9 games over the last 3 years through online retailers, and each followed a specific pattern: near the 45-yard line, and high enough for a clear view of the opposite sideline.

There’s a lot to unpack here, beginning with: Who pulled off the dastardly deed? Because if there’s no name, how can there be a crime?

Can the person be clearly identified by the video, and is it clear the person in the video was filming or taking photos — or taking photos and video of any number of things on game day like thousands of other fans?

Can the NCAA delve deeper in the investigation, and find season ticket holders around the person who allegedly filmed the other team’s sideline to corroborate the allegation? Is there video from other fans detailing the scheme, and can the NCAA find those fans and convince them to cooperate?

Can the NCAA build a circumstantial case so damning — ESPN is also reporting that Stalions bought and forwarded tickets to at least 3 other individuals for other games, and the ticket transfer is clear through ticket data tracking — that Stalions admits to the allegations and turns on Michigan? Does he implicate other staffers, all the way up to Harbaugh?

Or is this a wild chase brought about by petty jealousy?

“Jealousy? They’ve been doing this crap for years,” a Big Ten coach told Saturday Tradition. “Stealing signals during a game is one thing. Future scouting and stealing (signals) is a whole other problem. A big problem.”

2. The eye of the beholder

Remember, what you see on a video isn’t what another person sees. What the NCAA sees in a case is rarely what the school in question sees.

It wasn’t long ago that the NCAA accused North Carolina of funneling student athletes through bogus classes for more than a decade to keep them eligible. That, everyone, is the definition of “competitive advantage.”

It’s also blatantly illegal per NCAA rules, immoral, and makes a mockery of the NCAA’s amateur model.

But North Carolina said they weren’t bogus classes because — are you ready for this? — they were available to the general student population, too. In other words, Joe and Jane Student could’ve taken the classes just as easily as any student athlete.

Guess who won that morally bankrupt argument? Here’s a hint: it wasn’t the NCAA.

After years of investigating rampant cheating (because that’s what it was), and nailing down a systemic and unambiguous scheme to keep student athletes eligible, the NCAA pulled away, capitulated and signed off on the North Carolina explanation. North Carolina escaped what should’ve been crippling sanctions because its attorneys were more prepared than the NCAA’s.

That investigation included academic transcripts, and hours of interviews with those running the classes and the student athletes taking them. Not grainy video from a surveillance camera that may or may not show a person who may or may not be working for Stalions or Michigan (or both), who may or may not be recording signals from the other sideline.

This thing is a long way from over, and may never lead to anything — unless the NCAA gets a break and Stalions turns on Michigan.

3. Stealing scenarios, The Epilogue

Worst case scenario for Harbaugh and Michigan: Stalions exposes the scheme.

While Harbaugh can proclaim he knew nothing of the elaborate scheme — and Stalions could even corroborate that claim — Harbaugh would still be punished under NCAA bylaw 11.1.1.

The “Head Coach Responsibility” rule states, “a head coach is presumed to be responsible for the actions of all assistant coaches and administrators who report, directly or indirectly, to the head coach.”

In other words, Harbaugh can’t use plausible deniability. He will be responsible for Stalions’ actions.

Best case scenario: The video doesn’t show anything specific, and the NCAA can’t find corroborating witnesses.

Best case scenario, Part II: Michigan wins the national title, and Harbaugh leaves for the NFL. In that scenario, Michigan would still likely face NCAA sanctions should the scheme be corroborated.

4. Penn State’s slip

Penn State’s loss to Ohio State last weekend was bad enough. The collateral damage away from Columbus will linger.

Penn State’s best chance now at winning the East Division and playing in the Big Ten Championship Game is beating Michigan in Happy Valley on Nov. 11, and Michigan beating Ohio State in Ann Arbor on Nov. 24 — and all 3 teams finish 8-1 in the Big Ten.

The tiebreak for that 3-way tie will likely come down to the combined conference records of Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State’s West Division opponents. Penn State slipped significantly there, too, last weekend.

The Lions’ 3 West opponents (Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern) all lost, and have a combined conference record of 5-9. Ohio State’s West opponents (Minnesota, Purdue, Wisconsin) are 6-6, and Michigan’s (Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue) are 5-7.

5. The Weekly 5

Five picks against the spread.

Ohio State (-14.5) at Wisconsin

Indiana at Penn State (-31.5)

Maryland at Northwestern (+13.5)

Michigan State at Minnesota (-7)

Purdue at Nebraska (-2.5)

Last week: 1-4.

Season: 24-16.

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible Big Ten player. This week: Illinois DT Keith Randolph Jr.

“Big, strong, classic run stuffer. He has a nasty streak, and he likes mixing it up in there. That’s what really jumps out for me. He enjoys being in that interior hell. He has those strong, heavy hands and holds up to double (teams). He’s a space eater, but he has some athletic ability, too. He’s not going to give you much as far as pass rush, but that’s not what he’s about. He’s a long, 6-5, 300-pound mass in the middle who can move down the line in pursuit.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing.

1. Michigan: Forget about drama, Michigan looked unbeatable at Michigan State. Use the bye week to reset, and begin the heavy lifting portion of the regular season schedule.

2. Ohio State: We’re only 8 weeks into the season, but a case could easily be made for Marvin Harrison Jr. to be among the Heisman Trophy finalists.

3. Penn State: Don’t bail on QB Drew Allar now. His 1st mega road game isn’t exactly a barometer of things to come. He will get better in these games — and maybe as soon as next month against Michigan.

4. Wisconsin: Who knows if QB Braedyn Locke is the answer for the oddly inefficient offense. But the operation at least looked much smoother in the win over Illinois.

5. Maryland: Terps will have had 2 weeks to stew on an awful loss to Illinois. There can’t be lasting effects with a dicey road trip to Northwestern looming.

6. Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights are bowl eligible 8 weeks into the season — which is good, because they may not win again (Ohio State, at Iowa, at Penn State, Maryland).

7. Minnesota: Don’t be fooled by the defense against Iowa. Not everyone can’t function offensively. There’s plenty of work to do before the Gophers can even contemplate their 1st Big Ten Championship Game appearance.

8. Iowa: Years from now, we’ll look back on these last 3 seasons of Iowa football and wonder why coach Kirk Ferentz willingly didn’t try to improve the offense (by keeping his son, Brian, as OC/QBs coach) and wasted 3 elite defenses.

9. Nebraska: There’s nothing fancy or pretty about it. But the Huskers are 2 wins from bowl eligibility — a huge step in Year 1 under coach Matt Rhule. And it may have to happen over the next 2 weeks (at Michigan State, Purdue).

10. Northwestern: Let’s be honest here: Until QB Ben Bryant returns from an upper body injury, the Wildcats aren’t winning another Big Ten game.

11. Illinois: Of all the ugly of this season, letting the Wisconsin game slip away is at the top of the list. Hold on to the 14-point 4th-quarter lead and bowl eligibility is within reach. Now? Not so much.

12. Purdue: Was this season really a rebuild — or just a tear down to rebuild later in new coach Ryan Walters’ image? The Boilermakers need to stop the bleeding with a road win at Nebraska.

13. Indiana: Fortunately for IU, there is the Iowa offense and QB situation. Because without it, the Hoosiers would have the worst offense in Power 5 football.

14. Michigan State: The Spartans ran 2 plays in Michigan territory against the Wolverines’ 1st team defense. The first was a pass for 7 yards, the next was an interception returned 72 yards for a touchdown.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: Are you entertained now??!!! Please tell me who can beat the mighty Buckeyes!! — Donald Stinson, Cincinnati.

Donald:

For starters: Michigan. And Georgia, and Florida State, and maybe even Alabama.

This has been a bizarre year for Ohio State, which can’t seem to find it (yet) offensively — but has been ridiculously good on defense. Despite what I said about the aforementioned teams, the Buckeyes could also beat anyone in the nation. They’re that talented, and the defense will keep them in every game.

But here’s the key: all things being equal, best quarterback typically wins big games. That’s why Ohio State beat Penn State. Why FSU beat LSU, and why Georgia hasn’t lost since the 2021 SEC Championship Game.

Ohio State could’ve — and probably should’ve — won it all last season, but couldn’t knock out Georgia in last year’s Playoff semifinal before Stetson Bennett IV took over in the 4th quarter.

Let’s fast forward to this season: Despite what happened against Penn State, I still have questions about QB Kyle McCord. There’s no doubt he’s getting better, and protecting the ball and not putting Ohio State in precarious situations with poor decisions.

He played well against Penn State, but to be brutally honest, if Marvin Harrison Jr. played for Penn State, we’d be talking about how efficient Drew Allar played in a big win at Columbus.

It doesn’t mean it can’t happen for McCord; it very easily could. It means I’m not buying it until I see it.

9. Numbers

4.5. What in the world was that Penn State game plan against Ohio State? The strength of the offense is the run game with star RB’s Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

Instead of leaning on those two, OC Mike Yurcich called 18 runs for his running backs (9 each for a combined 74 yards, 4.1 per carry) — and 42 passes for 1st-year QB Drew Allar.

To compound that problematic decision, Allar completed only 43 percent of his passes for 191 yards — or a measly 4.5 yards per attempt.

That’s not giving up on the run, that’s all but ignoring it. And that has to change moving forward if Penn State has any hope of upsetting Michigan in less than 3 weeks.

10. Quote to note

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz on QB Deacon Hill: “We have to find a way to protect him a little bit better and get the ball out of his hands a little quicker. And he’s got some ownership in that, too.”