Penn State football: What happened to the freshman version of Nick Singleton?

Nick Singleton entered this season as Penn State’s most potent returning offensive weapon.

The top 2 receivers and the 4-year starter at quarterback were gone, but the 5-star freshman sensation was returning after a breakout 1,061-yard rushing season that included a Big Ten-best 7 runs of 40+ yards.

But instead of picking up where he left off, the Big Ten Freshman of the Year has taken a back seat to classmate Kaytron Allen. That’s not too surprising in and of itself, because Allen shared the running back load almost evenly last year on the way to an 867-yard rushing season.

What is surprising is the extent of the drop-off, which hit its nadir with a 20-yard effort in the Nittany Lions’ 51-15 victory at Maryland.

As James Franklin and OC Mike Yurcich were tinkering with the offense Saturday afternoon, Singleton missed out on most of the fun. Backup QB Beau Pribula finally got on the field alongside starter Drew Alar. Transfer receiver Dante Cephas had a long-overdue coming out party. No. 1 pass-catcher KeAndre Lambert added to his team-leading receiving totals and even got to chuck a pass.

But the guy rated the top RB in the 2022 recruiting cycle got squat — 8 carries for a season-low yardage total, and no receptions. Singleton just doesn’t seem to fit with this year’s grinding, plodding attack that Yurcich tried to dress up against the Terrapins. That’s all well and good against the dregs of the Big Ten, a group Maryland surely belongs to after its 4th straight loss.

But can the No. 11 Lions (8-1, 5-1) pull an upset of CFP No. 3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0) next Saturday at Beaver Stadium with its home run hitter in a year-long slump? The Wolverines bring much more stoutness up front on both sides of the ball than the Terrapins. Yards will be hard to come by, just like they were in the Lions’ 20-12 loss at Ohio State 2 weeks ago. Mike Yurcich’s offense was held to a season-low 240 yards in that one, with Singleton contributing 54 (48 rushing, 6 receiving) on 10 touches.

Singleton has played in all 9 games this season, and appears totally healthy based on his 1 highlight against the Terps, a 53-year kickoff return.

How bad is his drop-off? What’s at its root? And what are its ramifications? Let’s examine …

The drastic drop-off

Saturday’s season low rushing total marked the 6th time in 9 games Singleton has rushed for 50 or fewer yards. Last year he had 4 such efforts while playing in all 13 games. His season high is 80 yards against Northwestern. Last year he had 5 games of better than 80 yards, including 4 of 100+, with a high of 179 on just 10 carries against Ohio.

On a per-carry basis, the Governor Mifflin grad is down from 6.8 yards in 2022 to 4.0 (with the benefit of rounding) this year. He has a long run this year of 20 yards — he had 12 of at least that length and 9 of 30 or more yards as a true freshman.

Three-fourths of the way through the season, Singleton still hasn’t hit the 500-yard rushing mark. He’s at 480, putting him on pace for 693 in a 13-game season.

His receiving numbers are up a bit, with 19 catches for 148 yards after 11 for 85 all of last season.

Overall, this is a big, unexpected dip. If it’s simply a sophomore slump, it’s a doozy.

Reasons behind the slide

Some educated guesses:

• The offensive line, though decent, is not of the level anticipated, partly because of the medical retirement of LG Landon Tengwall and the loss of center Juice Scruggs to the NFL. It seems better suited to pass protection (12 sacks allowed through 9 games) than run-blocking, as does OC Yurcich’s scheme.
• Allen is playing better, with a style slightly better suited to grinding for tough yards in traffic.
• Singleton benefitted from the running threat posed by QB Sean Clifford, which kept defenses honest and opened lanes with deception as much as blocking. Penn State’s RB runs are more predictable and thus defensible this season. (Allen’s numbers are also down. He has the team’s only 100-yard game with 103 vs. Delaware, no 20-yard carries and a pace that would see him finish with 828 yards on 4.8 per carry. Last year, he had 867 yards on 5.2 per carry.)
• This offense is geared toward Allar, another 5-star 2022 recruit. As a classic pocket passer, Allar doesn’t bring the complementary run threat that predecessors Clifford and Trace McSorley did. Penn State’s change in style has brought improvement in short-yardage running (16 of 19 on fourth down conversions) but hurts its big-play potential.

How does this play out?

Saturday vs. Michigan: For the immediate future — i.e. the matchup with Michigan with CFP implications — probably not well, I’m sorry to say. Singleton had a career-low 19 rushing yards last year at the Big House, and Allen had 16. While Michigan has had more cupcakes this fall than a popular kid’s birthday party, it nonetheless looks every bit as all-around tough as the past 2 seasons’ CFP teams.

If an upset is to be had, the resurgent Allar (25-of-34 for 240 yards and 4 TDs vs. Maryland) probably will have to do the heavy lifting along with Lambert-Smith and Cephas, the Kent State transfer who broke out with 6 receptions and 2 TDs vs. Maryland.

Next year: As a true sophomore, Singleton can’t head to the NFL in the spring. But the portal and NIL money provide a huge pool of destinations. Can Singleton possibly be happy with his current situation? Would he bolt for some serious contender with a proven ground game? Say Michigan post-Blake Corum? Blasphemy?

I have no idea. From players to coaches, Penn State personnel control the narrative. It’s hard enough to know if someone is injured, let alone unhappy. Singleton could just as easily look in the mirror, decide he needs to work harder, and return in 2024 as an even more explosive version of his dynamic freshman self.

And at some point, the offensive staff should be able to get this unit to walk and chew gum at the same time. Despite the lack of big plays in the passing game, Allar is progressing through a monster first season as the starter. His struggles against Ohio State included, he’s completing 62.6% of his passes with 20 TDs and 1 INT. That’s Bo Nix territory. With just a little more success on mid-range and deep balls, more running space should open up. Penn State might be a year away from a 1994 Kerry Collins/Ki-Jana Carter type offense.

Yurcich and Franklin will have to hit on the right tweaks to make that happen, along with a sales job if they want to make sure Singleton is part of it.

Luke Glusco

Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.