5 biggest concerns Penn State should have for its do-or-die showdown with CFP No. 3 Michigan

Getting to this point has not been the problem for Penn State under James Franklin.

The Nittany Lions have been in the top 10 at some point every year since 2016, Franklin’s 3rd season in State College. The program gets to Big Ten East showdowns with Playoff implications on a fairly regular basis. It just can’t win them.

RELATED: 4 biggest concerns Michigan should have to avoid an upset vs. Penn State

So far, the ceiling has included 2 losses on an annual basis, sometimes with a major bowl trip but never with a Playoff berth.

The latest stab at changing the “short-of-elite” narrative comes Saturday, when the Lions (8-1, 5-1) host CFP No. 3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0).

Even at a striped out Beaver Stadium in front of 110,000 or so screaming Nitwits, winning as 4.5-point dogs will take some doing.

The challenge for Penn State (No. 9 AP, No. 11 CFP) presents itself thusly:

JJ McCarthy et. al. > Drew Allar et. al.

Stipulating that both defenses are stellar, Penn State has a problem. Its offense looks a lot like Michigan’s from a year ago, led by a sophomore first-year starter with a 5-star pedigree. Drew Allar has followed JJ McCarthy’s trajectory almost exactly: play in most of the games as a true freshman, take over in Year 2, initially proceed with caution, show off the arm occasionally with some mid-range darts, struggle to hit the deep ball.

McCarthy’s 1-season head start in that progression doesn’t bode well for Penn State. Right now, the serious Heisman candidate has more experience and advanced skills than Allar, including ability to move in the pocket and take off and run when needed. It’s possible Penn State’s 6-5, 240-pound man-child has the higher ceiling, but he’s not likely to reach it this week.

And it doesn’t end with the quarterbacks. Blake Corum has 2 seasons on PSU sophomore backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton — and better stats than either one both last year and this year. At WR1, Roman Wilson has a year on KeAndre Lambert-Smith as far as being a key piece of the offense.

And then there are the lines. Michigan’s 2-time defending Joe Moore Award winners vs. a PSU unit that is above average in pass protection and short-yardage run blocking … but ain’t Michigan.

So if Michigan ≥ Penn State in all areas on both sides of the ball, the Lions’ hopes thus rest upon … coaching?

Jim Harbaugh > James Franklin

Yet another area where Michigan has put a lap on Penn State.

A couple years ago, Michigan fans (and reportedly the school administration, too) were ready to send their well-known coach away. Now, his status is iffy because of multiple NCAA investigations that might send him back to the NFL sooner than later. No one, however, can argue that he hasn’t figured out the college game. It didn’t look possible just 2 years ago, but Harbaugh has solved the Ohio State problem, beating the Buckeyes, resoundingly, 2 Novembers in a row.

What the Penn State faithful wouldn’t give for that breakthrough, as their head coach is 1-9 vs. the Buckeyes after falling 20-12 this season in Columbus. Franklin is also 3-6 vs. Michigan, with the Wolverines ranked no higher than No. 16 when they took their losses.

It’s possible that breakthrough is coming for Franklin, who is stacking Michigan-level recruiting/transfer classes, has one of the best defensive coordinators in the country in Manny Diaz, and has his first 5-star quarterback in 13 years as a head coach in place. But fans will have to see it to believe it, and it’s more likely to come — if ever — next year.

For all the noise about sign stealing and impermissible contact, Harbaugh is there, now, looking cocky and invincible. Teflon Jim.

If Franklin wants to be the best, he’ll have to beat the best.

The specter of last year

Penn State was 5-0 heading to the Big House last year, and led 17-16 in the third quarter despite being thoroughly dominated physically. Then Michigan steamrolled the Lions, scoring 25 straight points and finishing with 418 rushing yards. McCarthy didn’t have to do much, finishing with 57 rushing yards and passing for 145 with no TDs and 1 pick. Corum (166 rushing yards) and Donovan Edwards (173) did the damage.

Penn State had a lot of true freshman on the field that day. They will be older, wiser and playing at home this time around. But more confident? The Lions didn’t show much big-game swagger against a much more beatable Ohio State team 3 weeks ago. If Michigan delivers an early punch in the mouth, these Lions might not get back up, figuratively speaking.

A solid start, with a big play that jacks up the crowd, would go a long way in possibly changing the narrative. If the opposite occurs, Lions on the field and in the stands will struggle to ward off thoughts of “here we go again.”

Can the pass rush get home?

Penn State leads the Power 5 with 38 sacks for 242 yards, trailing only James Madison for the FBS lead in both categories. Last weekend at Maryland, the pass rush wore Taulia Tagovailoa to a frazzle with 6 sacks, even as the 4th-year starter was posting the best first-half passing numbers against the Lions this season.

Diaz’s defense gets home from all levels; 19 Lions have at least 1 sack, and 10 have at least 2.

But Michigan is not Maryland, or UMass, or Northwestern — combined victims of more than half of the Lions’ QB takedowns. The Wolverines have allowed just 11 sacks in their 9 victories. Granted, UM’s run has come against some of the weakest teams around, none of them remotely close to being ranked. But it only gave up 17 sacks in 14 games last year.

Penn State will have to neutralize Michigan’s ground game to have any chance of rattling McCarthy, and even then will be challenged to get home — and will open itself up to big-play counterpunches if it isn’t extremely clever with its blitzes.

A win will be automatically discounted

A Penn State victory — unless it comes in a truly dominant form — will be viewed from the outside as more a reflection on Michigan than a validation of the Lions’ worthiness for a Playoff spot.

Why?

Because of Michigan’s ridiculously soft schedule. Because the sign-stealing will then be seen as a major explanation of the Wolverines’ domination of Ohio State and the rest of the B1G the past 2 seasons.

The instant the Wolverines get bumped from smack dab in the middle of the national title and Heisman races, the B1G and NCAA can pounce. Ohio State would have to finish off the 1-2 punch, but the powers that be surely would love to get this program under a cloud out of the national spotlight.

If Ohio State wins The Game to finish off a 12-0 regular season, Penn State almost certainly misses the Playoff despite Franklin’s first 11-1 regular season. The Big Ten sucks beyond its 3 heavyweights, to an extreme extent this season. It’s not getting 2 in the CFP unless a lot of dominos fall a certain way around the rest of the country.

So that leaves Nittany Nation to root for Michigan when it hosts CFP No. 1 Ohio state on Nov. 25 — and then hope the committee picks the Lions over both its division rivals. Penn State could (and would as of this writing) win the tiebreaker to make the B1G title game, but how many style points would it earn for beating an unranked stinker from the cesspool West? If there’s ever a time to run up a score, that would be it.

If it turns out that this is not be a moot point by late Saturday afternoon, Penn State fans gladly will embrace the drama.

Luke Glusco

Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.