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The B1G 10: Despite all the outside drama, The Game remains the same. And the countdown is on.

Matt Hayes

By Matt Hayes

Published:


1. The B1G Story

They may not like to hear it at the Big Ten offices in suburban Chicago, but we’re getting closer and closer to this reality.

Unless something funky happens over the next 2 weekends — and we’ve obviously seen it happen before — Ohio State vs. Michigan will be winner take all.

At stake: the Big Ten East Division, the Big Ten Championship (come on, offensively-challenged Iowa has zero chance), and yes, the lone Playoff spot.

So while we’re all dialed-in to the soap opera that is Mean Jimmy Stole My Signs, something more important is playing out across the Big Ten footprint.

The Big Ten and SEC champions — unless something down-the-rabbit-hole crazy happens — are in the Playoff. That’s about as much of a lock as anything this season.

That leaves 2 Playoff spots, and 2 easy additions: unbeaten ACC champion Florida State, and unbeaten Pac-12 champion Washington.

Before we go further, it’s important to understand that no Power 5 conference unbeaten has ever been left out of the Playoff. And it most certainly won’t happen in the last year of the 4-team format.

If Florida State (have you seen the Noles’ schedule?) or Washington were to lose, that opens the door for 1-loss Big 12 champion Texas — which would have a conference championship and the best non-conference win this season (at Alabama) over any 1-loss Big Ten runner-up.

Then there’s this: If Alabama beats unbeaten Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, there’s a higher probability that both SEC teams go if there are 2 Playoff spots available. Two-time defending national champion Georgia will have a better resume than 1-loss Michigan, and a similar resume as 1-loss Ohio State.

That leaves the most anticipated Ohio State-Michigan game since 2006 as a likely winner-take-all. Ohio State won that game in 2006, and the idea of a rematch was floated by many — including then-Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany.

Then Ohio State lost by 27 to Florida in the BCS national championship game.

2. The waiting game

Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh says he’ll speak Friday in district court when the university tries to obtain a temporary restraining order against the Big Ten that will allow Harbaugh to coach in the Maryland and Ohio State games.

At issue: The Big Ten, Michigan believes, suspended Harbaugh for 3 games despite no proof he knew about a former low level staffer scouting and recording games of future opponents.

Michigan will argue the Big Ten used the NCAA bylaw of coach responsibility, where a coach is responsible for everything that occurs under his watch. Michigan will argue that not only has Harbaugh not received due process, but that the Big Ten used a rule from an organization that will only mete out punishment after a full accounting from both sides.

Michigan believes there hasn’t been a full accounting.

Does it work? That’s not really the takeaway.

If it doesn’t work, the commissioner’s office at the Big Ten — and every other FBS conference — gains significant power. In fact, they become, by precedent, more like NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, unilaterally making punishment decisions.

3. The Game, The Epilogue

We’re all missing what’s important while breathlessly awaiting the next drama-filled chapter of As The Signs Are Stolen.

What happens if Michigan does later this month what Michigan has done to Ohio Sate in each of the past 2 seasons? What if a Michigan win is so complete, and so undeniable?

Where does that leave Day, and his ability to convince a rabid and impatient Ohio State fanbase that all is well in Scarlet and Grey?

Because it’s easy to excuse the last 2 losses with the sign stealing fiasco (as utterly preposterous as that sounds). But it’s another thing to ignore it again — with no built-in excuse in the barrel.

Another loss to Michigan would make Day 1-3 in games vs. the Buckeyes’ biggest rival, and as mentioned earlier, could keep 1 of the 3 most talented teams out of the Playoff.

Not a good way to end a drama-filled season.

4. Giving it away

The easily identifiable — and catastrophic — flaw of Nebraska football since Scott Frost arrived in 2018, and through coach Matt Rhule’s 1st season: turnovers.

The Huskers are last in the nation — 133rd — with 27 turnovers in 10 games. Imagine preparing and game-planning for every game knowing 3 turnovers must be baked into the recipe.

Frost’s teams committed 98 turnovers in 5 seasons, an inordinately high number. The worst season under Frost was 2018, when the Huskers had 22 turnovers in his 1st season.

This Nebraska team already has that number beat by 5, and in the past 2 weeks has blown opportunities to earn bowl eligibility because of turnovers.

Nebraska is a better team than Maryland and Michigan State, but the Huskers lost each game by 3 points because of 8 combined turnovers. Eight.

And they’re still 1 win away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2016. Nebraska is -14 in turnover ratio this season, and -35 since 2018.

5. The Weekly 5

Five picks against the spread.

Purdue at Northwestern (-1.5)

Michigan State at Indiana (-4.5)

Michigan (-20.5) at Maryland

Illinois at Iowa (-4.5)

Minnesota (+28.5) at Ohio State

Last week: 3-2.

Season: 33-22.

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible Big Ten player. This week: Michigan LB Junior Colson.

“He’s a big dude. A lot bigger when you’re standing next to him. He’s all of 6-3, 250 — and he can run. He has good lateral movement and skills, and he can explode through a crease and deliver a blow. Strong hands, can analyze and shed blocks quickly. The big question is can he become a consistent 3-down linebacker in this league? He’s the prototypical Mike (linebacker) in run defense.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing.

1. Michigan: Sherrone Moore, Michael Moore or Demi Moore, Michigan isn’t losing to Maryland or Ohio State. And may not lose in the Playoff, either.

2. Ohio State: QB Kyle McCord had his best game of the season against the worst defense in the Big Ten. Don’t underestimate it. Confidence is wildly underrated.

3. Penn State: Is fired OC Mike Yurcich the problem? Time will tell — but someone had to take the fall for losing to Ohio State and Michigan, and scoring 27 combined points in the process.

4. Iowa: Technically, the Hawkeyes have clinched at least a tie for the West Division. Heaven help us if the unthinkable happens and Iowa loses the next 2 games (Illinois, at Nebraska).

5. Illinois: Is QB John Paddock the late season answer? The Illini need a win at Iowa or in the home final against Northwestern to become bowl eligible.

6. Rutgers: Nothing about this season really looks good, other than bowl eligibility. The win over Virginia Tech in September will be the best win of the season. By a long way.

7. Maryland: The Terps finally played someone with worse ball security issues. The goal should be 8 wins. That’s a win over Rutgers to end the season, and a bowl win.

8. Minnesota: The West Division has been placed on a platter for the Gophers over and over. And they keep fumbling it away with unthinkable losses. Coach PJ Fleck’s most disappointing season.

9. Nebraska: The defense has played well enough to win all but 2 games (Colorado, Michigan). Huskers are 5th in the Big Ten in scoring defense (18.2 ppg), and 2nd is sacks (29).

10. Northwestern: The return of QB Ben Bryant was impressive, as were the 24 points scored in the first half of a surprisingly easy win at Wisconsin for the 1st time since 2015.

11. Wisconsin: Let’s look at this from an operational standpoint: What on the team works right now? The offense is a mess, and the defense, well, you just can’t give up scoring drives of 9, 11, 11 and 12 plays to a Northwestern offense struggling to string together 1st downs.

12. Indiana: I really like that IU hasn’t already fired Tom Allen to get ahead of the line of those looking for coaches. The team is playing hard, and there’s still an important rivalry game in 2 weeks against Purdue.

13. Purdue: Boilers rushed for 353 yards and 4 TDs against Minnesota. That’s not a misprint, and I’m not sure if it’s more about Purdue’s offensive line finally playing cohesively — or a tired Minnesota defense running on fumes late in the season.

14. Michigan State: It’s hideous, and the Spartans are playing out the string. One hire can change it all. Hello, Lance Leipold?

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: I can’t take much more of James Franklin. You know how they say when people show you who they are, believe them? Would Penn State actually fire him? — Chris Fredricks, Allentown, Pa.

Chris:

Don’t be ridiculous. You don’t fire a coach who consistently recruits and wins at a high level. I’m not denying the obvious: Franklin is 4-16 vs. Ohio State and Michigan.

But Penn State will more than likely win 11 games again this season, and that will be 5 11-win seasons in the last 8 years. Even the harshest Franklin critic can’t avoid that.

How does Franklin get over the Ohio State and Michigan obstacle? With an elite quarterback. I still think Drew Allar can be that player, but he’s in his 1st season as a starter and hasn’t been coached well enough.

Franklin fired OC Mike Yurcich hours after the loss to Michigan, and needs to make an impactful hire to change the offense. I’d go get Joe Moorhead from Akron, and pay him triple what he’s making ($500,000) as head coach of the Zips.

The former Lions OC is a terrific developer of quarterbacks and play-caller. We saw what he did for Trace McSorley’s career, he can do the same for Allar.

9. Numbers

34. There have been injuries. They’ve used 2 quarterbacks and 3 running backs. It has been a horrific first year for the Air Raid offense at Wisconsin.

The Badgers weren’t exactly taking the Big Ten by storm early in the season, but have scored 34 points in their past 3 games — losses to Ohio State, Indiana and Northwestern.

In 7 Big Ten games, the Badgers are averaging 18.1 points. This could be the worst Wisconsin offense (points per game vs. the Big Ten) in more than 2 decades.

10. Quote to note

Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck, after the Purdue loss: “What were the issues? Everything.”

Matt Hayes

Matt Hayes is a National College Football Writer for Saturday Tradition. You can also hear him daily on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB