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Big Ten football futures market analysis: Best bets for Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon and more
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The Big Ten is gearing up for a huge season as 4 newcomers join the league for the 2024 campaign.
The arrivals of USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington come just in time for the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams.
With the 2024 season now just a few months away, it’s a good time to take stock of the futures market with regards to the Big Ten. ESPN’s FPI has updated its projected odds for every FBS team to win the conference, reach the College Football Playoff or win the national championship, amongst other targets.
By using FPI’s projections and comparing them to implied odds from a variety of sportsbooks, we can derive “expected value” from each possible wager. Here’s a breakdown of the highest expected-value Big Ten futures bets currently on the board:
Ohio State to miss the College Football Playoff (+440 on FanDuel)
- Implied odds: 18.52%
- FPI probability: 32.8%
- Expected value: $77.12 (on a $100 wager)
This is the best overall bet on the board for any team in terms of expected value. While Ohio State missing the first-ever 12-team playoff would be a shock, there is a big discrepancy between the implied odds from FanDuel and the projection from FPI.
Practically, it’s difficult to find an outcome where Ohio State misses the CFP this season. The Buckeyes haven’t lost a Big Ten game to a program other than Michigan since 2018. The schedule is a little tougher this year with Oregon joining the conference, but Ohio State would likely have to go 9-3 or worse to miss the expanded Playoff altogether. Still, if you believe in FPI’s predictive abilities, the value is clearly there.
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Penn State to win the national championship (+2500 on ESPN BET)
- Implied odds: 3.85%
- FPI probability: 6.6%
- Expected value: $71.60 (on a $100 wager)
Penn State to win the national championship would certainly qualify as a long shot, but FPI is showing value on the Nittany Lions in this case. With 6.6% national title equity, it’s at least worth considering a wager on Penn State at any price better than +1500 or so. FPI is also showing significant value on bets for Penn State to win the Big Ten and to reach the national championship at current market prices.
FPI’s optimism on Penn State is backed up by ESPN’s SP+ metric, which gives James Franklin’s team a 72.8% chance to go at least 10-2 (which would almost certainly be enough for a Playoff berth). Drew Allar returns as Penn State’s starting quarterback this fall along with some other key defensive pieces. The schedule is headlined by matchups against West Virginia, USC and Ohio State.
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Related reading: Saturday Tradition’s Derek Peterson shared his favorite Big Ten win total bets for 2024.
Michigan to miss the College Football Playoff (-110 on DraftKings)
- Implied odds: 52.38%
- FPI probability: 71.5%
- Expected value: $36.50 (on a $100 wager)
It’s no secret that Michigan had more than its fair share of turnover this offseason. The Wolverines lost coach Jim Harbaugh along with quarterback JJ McCarthy and a host of other key players to the NFL. Michigan added a couple of key transfers, but ultimately will be relying on former high school prospects to take big steps forward in 2024.
FPI is much lower on Michigan’s ability to get back to the Playoff than the market is. If 10-2 is the target for the Wolverines to be Playoff-bound, then it’s easy to see why there’s some skepticism from FPI. Michigan has tough games against Texas, USC, Oregon and Ohio State on the schedule. That’s to say nothing of Michigan’s national title game rematch against Washington on the road in early October. Regardless of Michigan’s player development (which has been second to none in recent years), it will be a tough road back to the Playoff in 2024.
Want to bet on the Wolverines this offseason? Here’s all you need to know about the top Michigan sports betting apps on the market in 2024!
Oregon to win the national championship (+1100 on Caesars)
- Implied odds: 8.33%
- FPI probability: 12.8%
- Expected value: $53.60 (on a $100 wager)
FPI is very high on Oregon, as it’s showing positive expected value on the Ducks to win the national championship, to win the Big Ten and to reach the College Football Playoff at current market prices. Oregon returns numerous key players from last year’s squad and added arguably the nation’s top transfer quarterback from this offseason in ex-Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
The case for Oregon as a national title contender rests on how good you think Gabriel is (as well as the Ducks’ defense). The numbers say Gabriel is one of the best quarterbacks in the country — he averaged 9.5 yards per attempt last season while throwing 30 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions. He left Oklahoma to make room for former 5-star quarterback Jackson Arnold to start in Norman, but the Sooners’ loss could be Oregon’s gain. Gabriel will be surrounded with one of the most talented rosters in the Big Ten.
Related reading: Will Oregon make the College Football Playoff in 2024?
Spenser is the news manager at Saturday Road and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.