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Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Illinois football game in 2024
By Paul Harvey
Published:
Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series begins today with Illinois. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 18-team B1G.
Illinois is entering Year 4 of Bret Bielema’s tenure but is coming off a disappointing 5-7 mark a season ago. Now, the Illini are trying to rebound back to a bowl game but must do so with some new pieces in place.
Offensively, the Illini will return quarterback Luke Altmyer after an up-and-down debut season in Champaign. However, he’ll have some new faces to work with after leading rusher Reggie Love III transferred to Purdue and leading receiver Isaiah Williams and top tight end Tip Reiman both off to the NFL.
A similar situation faces the Illini defense with stalwarts Johnny Newton and Keith Randolph Jr. off to the NFL and Taz Nicholson transferring to Louisville.
Illinois added 13 players via the transfer portal to address some of the losses. The trenches were an area of focus with 7 players along the offensive and defensive lines added to the program. JC Davis, a veteran offensive tackle and one of the top OL available, is one of the key transfer pieces to join the B1G this offseason with all-conference potential.
As for expectations this season, DraftKings has set the win total for Illinois at 5.5 with the under listed at -120. The Illini are an afterthought in the B1G Championship Game odds, and getting back to the postseason should be viewed as a tough (but achievable) task.
As we prepare for the season, we’ll take a stab at predicting every game, with the full projected record for Bielema and company at season’s end.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Eastern Illinois (W)
Illinois is 1 of 3 B1G teams starting the season on a Thursday night, and a visit from FCS in-state foe Eastern Illinois should not upset the apple cart too much. The Panthers went 8-3 in 2023 season, but a game against Bowling Green resulted in a 38-15 loss for EIU. If the Illini drop the opener, it’s time to push the full-blown panic button for Bielema’s program.
Week 2: vs. Kansas (L)
Illinois would certainly love a mulligan against Kansas after falling to the Jayhawks 34-23 last season. Unfortunately, Jalen Daniels is back for one more season after lighting up the Illini defense with a 72.4 completion percentage and 2 touchdowns. Fans will get a good glimpse of any progress (or lack of progress) from Bielema’s defense, but lean toward taking Kansas in the early-season showdown.
Week 3: vs. Central Michigan (W)
Illinois has not fared well against the directional schools from Michigan. The Illini lost to Eastern Michigan in 2019 and Western Michigan in 2016, but this will be their first game against Central Michigan. This will be a great chance to show that even after a disappointing season, fans can forget the head-scratching losses that have plagued the program for over a decade prior to Bielema’s arrival. If Illini wants to maintain any hopes of a bowl game, they must complete the nonconference slate no worse than 2-1.
Week 4: at Nebraska (L)
Bielema began his Illinois tenure with back-to-back wins over Scott Frost-led Nebraska teams, but the Huskers brought a new vibe under Matt Rhule. With the pieces Nebraska returns, it’s unlikely the Illini will score consistently in Lincoln. That swings the advantage to the Huskers in a big way at home. The Illinois defense could swing things if they force a few turnovers, but the Illini had their own problems holding onto the ball.
Week 5: at Penn State (L)
The last time the Illini traveled to Beaver Stadium in 2021, they stunned James Franklin and Penn State with a lengthy overtime battle for the ages. It serves as a great reminder that any team can win on any day, but predicting another upset on the road is unwise.
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: vs. Purdue (W)
Bielema has not been able to conquer the Purdue demon, losing his first 2 matchups against Jeff Brohm and then watching Ryan Walters’ Boilermakers gash the Illini in a 44-19 blowout. However, I believe the rivals were closer than that score appeared last year, and this year’s game comes in Champaign. I’ll go with Bielema to kick the current trend and beat Purdue.
Week 8: vs. Michigan (L)
The Illini last beat the reigning national champions during Rich Rodriguez’s tenure at Michigan. Since Illinois won back-to-back games in 2008-09, the Wolverines have rattled off 6 straight wins in the series, though the Illini pushed Michigan to the brink in 2022. Even with the losses from last year’s UM roster, don’t count on Illinois being that close this time around.
Week 9: at Oregon (L)
There’s a reason Oregon is among the favorites to win the B1G title and reach the College Football Playoff. Add in the fact that this game is in Eugene, and it is not exactly shaping up as a weekend to remember for Illinois.
Week 10: vs. Minnesota (W)
Minnesota has been the exact opposite of Purdue for Bielema; he is 3-0 against the Gophers with the Illini. The 2023 contest required some last-minute heroics from John Paddock in a 27-26 thriller. The good news is Minnesota’s offensive playing style under PJ Fleck should still play into the hands of Illinois, regardless of the overall strength of the Illini secondary.
Week 11: BYE
Week 12: vs. Michigan State (L)
Michigan State’s outlook contains a fair amount of projection with new head coach Jonathan Smith getting settled in East Lansing. But based on Bill Connelly’s formula (with transfers accounted for), the Spartans have roughly the same amount of returning production as the Illini. Smith will also rely on the trenches and a ground game which plays into Bielema’s style, but I have a feeling the Spartans and new QB Aidan Chiles will be better than some folks expect in Year 1.
Week 13: at Rutgers (L)
The Scarlet Knights are no longer a “sneaky” team under Greg Schiano. Rutgers returns the B1G’s leading rusher a season ago, some defensive playmakers and added a new starting QB in former Minnesota starter Athan Kaliakmanis. Schiano-led teams always fight to the final whistle, and the talent level of the Scarlet Knights continues to get better under his watch. There is no longer any shame in losing to Rutgers with Schiano’s current program a good goal of what Bielema is striving to rebuild in Champaign.
Week 14: at Northwestern (W)
David Braun led Northwestern to an 8-5 record with a win over Illinois in his first season. This year’s game will feature a particularly unique home venue for Northwestern with the sides playing at Wrigley Field late in the year. Conditions in Wrigley are always of interest, so a low-scoring drag-out affair seems likely late in November. Illinois committed 4 turnovers in this game last season, and Northwestern leaned on Ben Bryant for 3 total TDs. With a new QB, I think the Wildcats will make a few more mistakes in this one.
2024 Projection: 5-7 (3-6)
It’s more bad luck for Illinois this season in a Crystal Ball outlook that will not sit well with the Illini. That means fans can go ahead and put their bowl game budget to good use in purchasing tickets for basketball season as the Illini will reach the end of another season without a bowl victory since they last won a postseason game in 2011.
I personally believe the Illini will play more cohesive football this season than the team did in 2023. However, it’s hard to see those improvements translating into extensive success in the win-loss column. Such is life in the new 18-team B1G.
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Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.