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Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Indiana football game in 2024
By Paul Harvey
Published:
Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Indiana. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 18-team B1G.
Previously: Illinois
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It’s a brand-new era for Indiana, with head coach Curt Cignetti arriving to lead the Hoosiers.
After rising through the head coaching ranks, Cignetti has earned a reputation as a winner with impressive numbers across various levels of the sport. Most recently, Cignetti went 52-9 overall at James Madison while leading the program from the FCS into the FBS. Arguably most impressive, the Dukes went 19-4 in their first 2 FBS seasons, including an 11-win season in 2023.
Now, Cignetti will try to turn around an Indiana program that has been largely overlooked, save for a few impressive seasons under former coach Tom Allen. Among Cignetti’s first decisions in Bloomington was a massive overhaul of the roster, including 31 total transfers. That includes 13 transfers from his former James Madison squad, a group he credits for helping reinvent the culture of the Hoosiers.
Cignetti’s pedigree says turning around the Hoosiers is possible, but can it be done immediately in an increasingly deep B1G? Here’s what the Crystal Ball sees for 2024:
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Week 1: vs. FIU (W)
FIU has won exactly 9 games since the start of the 2020 season, and the Golden Panthers check in at 124th in the country in the post-spring SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly. It’s the perfect “get your feet wet” season opener for Cignetti, and even some hiccups in Week 1 should not doom Indiana overall. A loss here would be cause for panic.
Week 2: vs. Western Illinois (W)
Western Illinois was among the worst FCS programs last season, finishing 0-11 while giving up 40+ points 8 times. Once again, a loss here for the Hoosiers would surely lead to an early meltdown, but I wouldn’t sweat this one.
Week 3: at UCLA (L)
Indiana’s first B1G game under Cignetti includes a road trip against league newcomer UCLA. It will also be the first B1G game for the Bruins since making the switch. I understand Chip Kelly leaving the program shook things up a bit, but I don’t think it will have a major negative impact right away. Plus, traveling to California presents a challenge in itself. Look for a hard-nosed dogfight between first-year coaches that favors the home team.
Week 4: vs. Charlotte (W)
Charlotte was a mixed bag last season with a 3-9 record under Biff Poggi. Entering 2024, the 49ers are actually lower on the SP+ than FIU, and Charlotte is 95th nationally in terms of returning production. A 3-1 start to the season could lead to some early-season buzz for Cignetti but don’t get carried away with things before we reach October.
Week 5: vs. Maryland (L)
Maryland must replace longtime starting QB Taulia Tagovailoa, a program record holder in many categories. However, the Terrapins should have their starter entrenched by the time Week 5 comes around, and I expect the talent of Mike Locksley’s program to win the day in this matchup. I don’t have the Terrapins among the upper echelon of the conference this season, but it still presents a great measuring stick for Cignetti. If this one is close, that’s a good sign for the Hoosiers.
Week 6: at Northwestern (L)
Northwestern was the rare team to win a bowl game while giving up more points than they scored in 2023. That means it’s safe to expect the Wildcats to regress a bit from their 8-5 mark, but I don’t think they’ll regress enough to let an Indiana roster in flux beat them at home.
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: vs. Nebraska (W)
Cignetti would love to have the kind of momentum Matt Rhule currently has at this point next year. But that doesn’t mean Cignetti cannot pull off a surprise in this one. A couple things will be on the side of the Hoosiers here, including an overconfident and growing Nebraska team likely looking ahead on the schedule. Indiana also needs to deliver a couple of counter punches this season, and this feels like a good one.
Week 9: vs. Washington (L)
Washington is experiencing its own coaching change and massive roster overhaul following a string of NFL departures and Kalen DeBoer heading to Alabama. However, Jedd Fisch has the Huskies’ roster in solid shape, checking in at No. 35 in the country on the post-spring SP+. Washington could be the surprise performer in the conference if a few games tilt their way, and Will Rogers gives the Huskies enough production under center to win every game they’re supposed to.
Week 10: at Michigan State (L)
Tom Allen registered a pair of wins over Michigan State for the Old Brass Spittoon, but it’s a faceoff of new head coaches in 2024 with Jonathan Smith leading the Spartans against Cignetti’s Hoosiers. Smith is entering his own rebuilding project, but his roster at MSU will have a slight leg up on IU, and this game comes in East Lansing.
Week 11: vs. Michigan (L)
By Week 11, that 3-1 start for the Hoosiers will feel like ancient history. Indiana’s only win over Michigan since the 1980s came during the COVID season, and that’s not going to change this season.
Week 12: BYE
Week 13: at Ohio State (L)
Ohio State has won 28 consecutive in this series dating to 1991, and the Buckeyes have not lost to Indiana since 1988. The Buckeyes have national title aspirations for a reason, and this is the kind of game they do not lose.
Week 14: vs. Purdue (W)
Purdue has won 3 straight in the series since the cancellation of the 2020 game, but the 2023 matchup was a 35-31 nail-biter. I think the two sides are pretty evenly matched this year, and I’ll roll with Cignetti getting some momentum heading into his first full offseason with the program.
2024 Projection: 5-7 (B1G 2-7)
Can Cignetti turn Indiana into a consistent program? I actually think the answer is yes, but consider 2024 a wake-up call of sorts for the head coach.
A 5-7 record would be his worst single season in his career, who clearly is not used to losing. That’s just a fact of life in the new-look Big Ten.
If Cignetti can stick to his convictions and weather the storm, the Hoosiers can eventually find their footing as a football program. But for now, there will be some lumps they have to take.
Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.