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The Trojans lost the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, plus their top 2 rushers, top 2 receivers and 3/5ths of the starting o-line from an offense that averaged 41.8 points per game. But let’s be real here: No one is concerned about Lincoln Riley’s offense in 2024 or beyond.
As usual, the sirens going off during last year’s collapse over the second half of the season were tripped by a defense engulfed in flames. Against all odds, a unit that had been an obvious Achilles’ heel in 2022 took an even bigger step backward in ’23, limping in at 119th in total defense, 121st in scoring D and 105th in SP+. Opponents scored at least 34 points in 8 consecutive games to close the regular season, making a grim spectacle of Caleb Williams’ farewell campaign in the process.
Riley responded, inevitably, by ditching longtime coordinator Alex Grinch, hiring away 34-year-old D’Anton Lynn from rival UCLA to replace him, and overhauling the secondary via the portal.
The transition to the Big Ten represents a clean slate. And if nothing else, at least there’s nowhere to go but up, right? I mean, literally … right? A merely below-average defense will keep the Trojans on the Playoff radar, but at this point even achieving mediocrity on that side of the ball is going to require a significant leap.
Trojans at a Glance…
2023 Recap: 8-5 (5-4 Pac-12; Won Holiday Bowl)
Best Player: WR/KR Zachariah Branch
Best Pro Prospect: DL Bear Alexander
Best Addition: LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Oregon State)
Best Name: DB Jarvis Boatwright
Tenured Vet: OL Jonah Monheim (6th year; 34 career starts at guard/tackle)
Emerging Dude: Redshirt junior QB Miller Moss
Biggest strength: The passing game. We could review the attrition on offense again and go through the ritual of reserving judgment on the replacements. Is that really necessary? OK, sure, the new guys still have to go out and prove it. But between Lincoln Riley’s track record of developing elite quarterbacks and Miller Moss acing his audition as QB1 in the Holiday Bowl, there is about as much certainty as there can be under the circumstances that this will remain one of the nation’s most productive attacks.
Riley has yet to preside over a less-than-prolific offense in a decade of calling plays. Moss is a former top-100 recruit in his 4th year in the program, and 5-star sophomores Zachariah Branch and Duce Robinson are on breakout watch after getting lost amid a crowded wide receiver rotation as freshmen. All the lights are green.
Nagging concern: Stopping the run. The defense stunk across the board in 2023, but it was especially putrid against the run, finishing 119th in rushing yards per game allowed, 110th in yards per carry allowed and 121st in runs of 20+ yards allowed. Excluding sacks, 9 of 13 opponents topped 200 yards on the ground. The biggest body up front, Georgia transfer Bear Alexander, is back, but the rest of the interior DL rotation will be manned by transfers and/or freshmen.
Looming question: Is the rebuilt secondary an upgrade? Coaches didn’t completely clean house in the secondary, but they did bring in 5 transfers with significant starting experience at the Power 5 level who could very well make up the first line on the depth chart. Two of the newcomers you can go ahead and pencil in as starters: Safety Kamari Ramsey and cornerback John Humphrey, both of whom followed new DC D’Anton Lynn from UCLA.
The schedule: Winning a big-ticket season opener in the expanded CFP era is not necessarily the do-or-die proposition that it has been historically, but given the way last year ended, the Sunday night opener against LSU in Las Vegas is crucial tone-setter. After that, the Trojans can set their sights on a conference lineup that serves up Michigan (in Ann Arbor), Wisconsin and Penn State in the first 4 games. By midseason, they’ll either be firmly on the Playoff track or deep in crisis mode.
RELATED: Predicting every USC game in 2024
The upshot
Since taking over as Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator in 2015, Riley’s offenses have averaged at least 39 points per game in 9 consecutive seasons. (The only 1 that came in a tick under 40 ppg was the one that saw him bench his starting QB at midseason for a future Heisman winner.) The variable is a defense which has ranged from “warm to the touch” to “totally engulfed.” D’Anton Lynn’s job is merely to keep the temperature at a low enough simmer that the offense doesn’t literally have to hit that number every week to have a chance.