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Wisconsin kept its promise to air it out in 2023, averaging slightly more passes per game (36.1) than runs (34.9) for what I’m just going to go ahead and say was the first time in school history. (I stopped checking at 1970; pretty sure I’m safe on this one.) By Wisconsin standards, that qualifies as a full-on conversion to the Air Raid.
Unfortunately, a willingness to put the ball in the air isn’t the same thing as actually being good at it: The Badgers ranked 119th nationally in yards per attempt, 108th in pass efficiency and averaged their fewest points per game (23.5) since 2004. In their 4 conference losses, they failed to top 14 points in any of them.
The initial experiment flopped, but the project forges ahead. Head coach Luke Fickell stuck by his offensive coordinator, Phil Longo, and his 21st-Century insistence on balance. Instead, the key variable in ’24 is a new quarterback, Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke, a strapping pocket type who fits the NFL mold. With the notable exception of Russell Wilson, Wisconsin’s fate has rarely hinged on the QB, who for at least two generations was usually the exact same guy in a different jersey — a future regional vice president of sales charged with handing off, occasionally hitting the tight end on play-action, and otherwise remaining as anonymous as possible.
Last year’s starter, Tanner Mordecai, was a good example of what it looks like when a generic “game manager” type is thrust into the role of franchise slinger. With Van Dyke, the Badgers hope they have the real deal.
Badgers at a Glance …
2023 Recap: 7-6 (5-4 Big Ten; Lost Outback ReliaQuest Bowl)
Best Player: CB Ricardo Hallman
Best Pro Prospect: OL Jack Nelson
Best Addition: Edge John Pius (William & Mary)
Best Names: CB Nyzier Fourqurean… LB Angel Toombs
Tenured Vet: OL Jack Nelson (5th year; 38 starts at tackle/guard)
Emerging Dude: Redshirt sophomore OL Joe Brunner
Biggest strength: A huge, vintage Wisconsin offensive line. Both tackles, Jack Nelson and Riley Mahlman, are future pros; former Cincinnati transfers Joe Huber and Jake Renfro are 5th-year seniors with a combined 45 career starts between them on the interior; rising guards Joe Brunner and JP Benzschawel are former blue-chips who are sufficiently beefed after multiple years on campus. Whatever else has changed, the pipeline of behemoths emerging from their redshirt phase looking bears prepped for hibernation remains intact.
Nagging concern: Stopping the run. Usually a strength, the run defense was meh at best in 2023, yielding 135.1 yards per game (including sacks) on 3.8 per carry. Both of those marks were the worst at Wisconsin since 2018 by a wide margin. Two d-line starters transferred into rotational roles in the SEC; a third, James Thompson Jr., is “out indefinitely” due to a preseason injury. A pair of FCS transfers, Brandon Lane and Elijah Hills, were necessary additions just to ensure there are enough viable bodies on hand.
Looming question: Who are the playmakers? Last year’s leading receiver, Will Pauling, is back after clearly separating himself as the No. 1 target in the slot. But he’s more of a reliable underneath type than a big-play threat, with only 7 of his 73 receptions going for 20+ yards and fewer than half going for 10+ yards. The outside guys, Bryson Green and Chimere Dike, caught 49.5% of the targets aimed in their direction and combined for just 3 touchdowns. Green is in line to start again, but Dike portaled out and leading rusher Braelon Allen declared for the draft with no clear heir apparent in the backfield. The Badgers would love to see junior wideout CJ Williams, a former top-100 recruit at USC, make the leap in his second year in Madison; until it actually happens, that line may as well be fan fiction.
The schedule: The three toughest tests (Alabama, Penn State,and Oregon) are all in Madison, for what it’s worth, although the Badgers will be decisive underdogs in all three. More likely, the season will rise or fall on the road trips — all toss-ups, at USC, Rutgers, Northwestern, Iowa and Nebraska.
RELATED: Predicting every Wisconsin game in 2024
The upshot
Wisconsin has fielded plenty of mediocre teams over the years, but most of those teams at least had a blueprint and a clear idea of what the final product was supposed to look like. Last season was the time first in ages the Badgers seemed to lack any kind of coherent identity at all. Chalk it up to the typical growing pains of a new administration implementing its own vision. The next step in Year 2 is to make the outline of that vision legible, whether the record reflects it or not.