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Week 6 is here. We’re almost halfway through the 2024 college football season. Identities are forming. Weaknesses are revealing themselves. Here are a handful of storylines to consider before betting on this weekend’s slate of games.
Does Texas A&M have a QB1 controversy?
Mike Elko said Monday at his weekly press conference that Conner Weigman is a game-time decision for Saturday’s top-25 battle with Missouri. Weigman has been dealing with a shoulder injury that has kept him off the field since Week 2. In his place, the Aggies have turned to Marcel Reed, who has gone 3-0 as a starter.
Reed made his first start in The Swamp against Florida, where he posted an 88.9 QBR with 2 touchdown passes and 1 rushing touchdown. A&M ran for 310 yards that day, showcasing a different brand of offense from the one that stumbled about in the opener against Notre Dame.
A week later, the Aggies got 1 touchdown from 4 red zone trips and beat Bowling Green by just 6 points.
If 2 of those 3 red zone field goals were touchdowns, is there even a question as to whose job this is when Weigman is healthy? I think not. Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz seems to agree.
“I know on their depth chart, it says the other kid is the starting quarterback, but that’s just semantics in my opinion,” Drinkwitz said Tuesday. “The guy (Reed) is 3-0 as the starter and whether he’s listed as questionable or whatever, I don’t see him (Elko) going back. They’re 3-0, they clearly have a different offensive identity with this guy as the quarterback and they’ve developed an offense that fits around his system. It’s a lot different than the first game of the year.”
Arguably, Reed’s skillset fits what this coaching staff wants to be offensively better than Weigman does. He’s not taking sacks and he’s providing something with his legs that Weigman just doesn’t. In the 3 games Reed has started, A&M has run for an average of 226 yards a game at 5 yards per carry. He had 83 yards with his legs in the Florida game and 91 yards in the Bowling Green game.
A&M’s offensive line, right now, might be better suited to paving the way for a ground game than protecting a pocket passer. Reed has completed 50% of his play-action attempts with 3 touchdowns and 1 turnover-worthy play, but there’s room for improvement with his throwing.
If Weigman is available, it will be interesting to see how Elko manages the situation. Is there a rotation? If there is, does that cut into Reed’s confidence or impact the offensive rhythm?
Defensively, Missouri ranks 16th nationally in rushing success rate allowed and has one of the best third-down defenses in the country. If A&M can’t run the ball effectively and stay on schedule against Missouri, that puts the onus on Reed as a passer. He hasn’t thrown an interception yet this season, but he’s also only completing 54.4% of his throws.
USC’s second-half adjustments are becoming a thing
The Trojans outscored LSU 17-10 in the second half of its opener. The Trojans outscored Michigan 21-13 in the second half. And they outscored Wisconsin 28-0 in the second half this past Saturday.
In those 3 games, the Trojans have given up 6.9 yards per play in the first half to opposing offenses and then just 4.8 in the second half. They’ve been able to sustain drives better and play a bit more keep-away from the other side.
On the 18 second-half possessions the defense has faced, USC has forced 3 takeaways, gotten 3-and-outs on 8 drives, and won on fourth down twice to kill a drive on downs. Those 3 opponents have gone 5-for-19 on third down.
It wasn’t just that Lincoln Riley jettisoned a defensive coordinator last season, it’s that he completely remade his defensive staff. For the first time during his head coaching career, the emphasis seemed to be more on defense than it was offense. Riley pulled a sitting head coach from one of the best FCS programs in the country to be an assistant on his defensive staff. He has multiple assistants who have held defensive coordinator titles elsewhere. USC has multiple people on the staff who have experience calling defensive plays.
This is just a much better staff than it was a season ago. And there’s something to be said about USC’s defensive simplification setting the table here. The players understand their principles better, and they seem to trust the staff. When those things are in place, you can play faster. USC is a better-tackling team in space, and a more fundamentally sound team when it comes to gap alignments and setting the edge.
Related: USC fans, head to DraftKings for a wide range of props and single-game parlay opportunities in this weekend’s game.
Can Washington fix its red zone offense?
One thing we’ve learned about Michigan to this point: The Wolverines aren’t going to run away from you. Against Fresno State, it was a 6-point game in the final 10 minutes. Arkansas State was handled, but only trailed by 18 going into the fourth. USC had a lead in the fourth. Minnesota outscored the Wolverines 21-3 in the fourth to scare the Wolverines.
Before, they couldn’t pass without throwing interceptions. Now, they just can’t pass. Unless something drastically changes and this offense develops some verticality, Michigan is going to be playing tight ball games.
That means everyone will have a chance if they can build a cohesive gameplan and execute it. Michigan is flawed. The Wolverines rank 59th nationally in Game on Paper‘s net adjusted EPA per play metric.
When Washington hosts Michigan this weekend, the game could very well be decided in the red zone. Michigan has given up 17 red zone trips to opponents this season, And 58% of those trips have resulted in touchdowns (75th nationally). Washington has made 18 trips to the red zone and come away with touchdowns on just 50% of those drives (106th nationally).
In a 3-point loss to Rutgers last Saturday, Washington outgained the Scarlet Knights 521-299. They were 2.7 yards per play better than their opponent, did not allow a sack, and did not turn the football over. Yet they lost.
Washington had 8 possessions that reached the Rutgers 40-yard-line. Three of those ended in missed field goals. Two of them ended in turnovers on downs, including a third-quarter drive that saw UW turned away on 3 straight plays from inside the Rutgers 3.
Washington is one of only 9 FBS teams with a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense. Yet the Huskies have 2 losses. They’ve just been wasteful in the red area. Against Rutgers, calling back-to-back pass plays on third- and fourth-and-goal from the 2 drew the ire of fans. In the 5-point loss to Washington State earlier this year, Washington was also denied on fourth-and-goal from the 1 with 1:07 remaining.
“We’re one basketball hoop away from 5-0 I guess. We’re 3 yards away. Ten feet,” coach Jedd Fisch said Monday. “We’ve got to convert on a fourth-and-1 at the 1 and convert on fourth-and-2 at the 2, and we have two different outcomes.
“… In general, I’d love to run it in if we could, but there’s some issues there if you’re outnumbered and you get 2 over 2 or 3 over 3. If you have a chance to throw it you’ve got to make that play.”
Jonah Coleman becomes a fascinating figure in the context of this upcoming football game. The obvious answer to solve a short-yardage issue in the red zone is to just give the ball to your 5-foot-9, 229-pound tailback who is averaging 7 yards a carry and let him bust through to the end zone.
Coleman had 148 yards in the Rutgers game. He’s up to 521 on the season. Last season with Arizona, Coleman was among the Pac-12’s leaders in forced missed tackles. This season, he’s among the nation’s leaders. He has 35, with an average of 5.7 yards after first contact. Only 3 FBS tailbacks have forced more missed tackles, and only 8 have produced more first downs.
But he only has 1 rushing score in the last 4 games and has yet to record more than 16 carries in a single game. Washington has been elite on paper — sixth nationally in net adjusted EPA per play — so there’s not really a reason to change the approach, but it feels like Coleman needs more touches.
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Can Arkansas stay on the field?
I highlighted this in Monday’s column, and it really feels like the key to the game for Arkansas if the Razorbacks are going to have any chance at upsetting Tennessee.
Tennessee is a ground-and-pound unit with a dynamo at quarterback. The Vols can win a game on Nico Iamaleava’s arm, but they haven’t asked him to do that yet. Instead, they’re fifth nationally in rushing attempts per game. They’re top-20 in rushing efficiency. Dylan Sampson (10 touchdowns, 6.5 yards per carry) is an elite running back flying a little under the radar.
Arkansas does not want to over-expose its defense and create a situation where Tennessee can lean on the Razorbacks as the game goes on.
Only 2 teams in the country have given up a lower percentage of 10-plus-yard plays than the Volunteers. Against Texas A&M, Arkansas gained 71% of its overall offensive yardage on 17% of its offensive plays. On the 58 non-explosive plays the Hogs ran, they gained 98 total yards. The same thing happened in the Auburn game, where Arkansas had 10 explosives and all other offensive plays averaged 2 yards per play.
Arkansas is reliant to a fault on chunk plays. When the explosives aren’t there, the offense is not moving. Compounding the issue is the inability to keep hold of the ball. Arkansas has lost 8 turnovers against the 3 Power conference teams it has faced so far.
Texas A&M had a plan for Taylen Green’s rushing ability, and the front caused the Razorbacks fits. Expect Tennessee to be keyed to him; the athleticism of the UT front 7 is a potential game-wreaker.
Tennessee leads the country in rushing success rate allowed this season. But the defense has been susceptible to the pass. What is the Arkansas plan on first down? Do they try to run the football to stay on schedule and set up some shot attempts for Green on second down? Or do they come out throwing to try and take advantage of where the defense is weaker? If Arkansas is going for it and not connecting on those plays, falling behind the chains, and struggling to get drives started, that’s a recipe for a blowout.
Will anyone beyond Tre Harris stand up for Ole Miss?
Henry Parrish Jr. had 13 carries and 5 receiving targets against Kentucky. Ulysses Bentley IV didn’t touch the football. Juice Wells had 2 targets without a reception. Caleb Prieskorn caught his only target.
In a 20-17 loss to Kentucky, Ole Miss essentially asked Tre Harris to save it on his own. Harris had 15 targets for 11 receptions, and 116 of his 176 receiving yards came after the catch.
The Rebels gave up 4 sacks, struggling to keep Kentucky’s front at bay long enough to give quarterback Jaxson Dart time. Dart was also off, quick to drop his eyes and panic in the pocket. Ole Miss averaged more than 75 plays a game through its first 4 games and then got only 56 against Kentucky. With just 17 points on the board, it’s fair to say the Rebels did not make the most of their offensive opportunities.
Of course, one narrative approach to the Wildcats’ upset is to say that Ole Miss finally faced a quality team and this is who the Rebels are. Plenty have run with that narrative following the defeat, hammering Lane Kiffin for reaching a proverbial ceiling or looking like the “same old Ole Miss.”
For the Rebels to show their Week 5 loss was nothing more than an off day, they need their playmakers to step up around Harris. Because South Carolina is going to bring the same kind of defensive intensity.
Harris has been outstanding, leading the country with 804 receiving yards and averaging 16.4 yards a pop. Wells has been too inconsistent, with just 14 receptions in 5 games. Prieskorn — pumped by Ole Miss supporters as one of the top tight ends in the country — has 10 receptions. Bentley was a breakout candidate after what he did a year ago and he has 19 touches in 5 games. Rashad Amos hasn’t logged a rushing attempt.
Dart didn’t have a turnover-worthy play and posted a 74.1% adjusted completion percentage against Kentucky. But pressures became sacks too often and he had held onto the football longer than he has in any other game this season. That speaks to 1 of 2 things: a poor gameplan, or an inability on the part of the skill position players to beat their man.
South Carolina, Nick Emmanwori, and Dylan Stewart are going to pose problems. If Ole Miss has another offense day where Harris has to do all the heavy lifting, we’ll know it’s time to ring the alarm bells in Oxford.
Navy and UConn are your friends
One more quick nugget before we wrap this up. Navy and UConn are a combined 7-2 against the spread this season. Both teams failed to cover in Week 1, and they are just crushing the number ever since.
In its last 3 games, Navy is beating the spread by an average of 18.3 points a game. And UConn, over its last 4, is beating the spread by an average of 28.4 points a game. Both schools are also running fairly sustainable offenses.
UConn has turned to the ground game. In its last 4, the Huskies are running it 47 times a game to the tune of 6 yards a carry. They play a 1-4 Temple team this week that ranks 110th in rushing success rate allowed.
Navy, meanwhile, is led by the nation’s leader in Total QBR — quarterback Blake Horvath. He’s top-10 among FBS passers in EPA, and he’s piloting an offense that ranks 11th nationally in success rate. This week, the Midshipmen face an Air Force squad that ranks 109th in net success rate.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.