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Week 6 Big Ten picks against the spread are in as we prepare for another loaded weekend of football.
Across the weekend, 16 of the league’s 18 teams will be in action, including another Friday night matchup in primetime. Illinois and Maryland are idle while trying to regroup following losses in Week 5.
As we hit Week 6, there are still 5 undefeated B1G teams. That includes Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State as the expected contenders, while Rutgers and Indiana also are off to unblemished starts.
As for my picks, Week 5 featured a big step back after a wildly successful Week 4. I went 3-5 for the weekend, but that still keeps me above the break-even line as we get closer to the middle of the season.
Now, let’s get to the picks!
All lines are featured via bet365.
Hammer’s Week 5 results: 3-5 ATS (Season record: 29-26)
Michigan State at Oregon (-24)
- PICK: Oregon -24
Oregon would have hit a big number against UCLA if not for a pick-6 by Dillon Gabriel just before halftime. Now, the Ducks get a Friday night game in Autzen against a Michigan State program struggling to hold onto the ball. This week, it’s the Spartans and QB Aidan Chiles who are liable to have the turnover that swings this line in favor of the Ducks. In spite of the early progress for Jonathan Smith, his program is tied for 126th in the country with an average turnover margin of -1.40 per game. That’s a problem.
RELATED: Spartan fans, be sure to find the best odds and offers all season long via Tradition’s favorite Michigan sportsbook apps.
Purdue at Wisconsin (-14)
- PICK: Purdue +14
I wrestled with this pick significantly. These teams are near the bottom of the B1G in scoring offense. (Purdue is tied for 14th at 21.8 points per game while Wisconsin is 16th with 21.5 points per game.) They are also near the bottom of the league in scoring defense, so it’s hard to get a real angle on this matchup. The Boilermakers recently changed their OC, and sometimes that can provide a spark. I don’t mean a significant spark but a touch more aggressive play-calling likely keeps this one semi-close. And I don’t really see the Badgers blowing out any team on their schedule.
UCLA at Penn State (-28)
- PICK: Penn State -28
Penn State is the real deal, let’s get that out of the way. I get the kicking issues last week allowed Illinois to hang around, but that was also a clearly conservative game plan from James Franklin for a good reason considering the makeup of Bret Bielema’s squad. The defense terrorized the Illini, and that’s likely going to be the same situation UCLA encounters in Week 6. The major difference is UCLA’s defense is much much worse than Illinois. (The Bruins are 17th in the B1G at 30.8 points per game.) Andy Kotelnicki will open things up this week and expect a heavy dose of backup QB Beau Pribula in the 2nd half.
Indiana (-13.5) at Northwestern
- PICK: Northwestern +13.5
Indiana’s 5-0 start is one of the major storylines in college football — and for good reason. There is nothing fluky about the performances, but it must be pointed out that 4 of the 5 games were at home. The lone road game was at UCLA. Curt Cignetti clearly knows how to motivate his guys, but human nature points to a Hoosiers team likely getting a bit too comfortable against a program known to prey on teams in such instances. Northwestern and Indiana are allowing less than 16 points per game defensively, so I believe the Wildcats will be able to slow this one down a bit. I like IU outright, but take the close game here.
Iowa at Ohio State (-19.5)
- PICK: Ohio State -19.5
Iowa hasn’t faced an offense like Ohio State this season, and Ohio State hasn’t faced a defense like Iowa this season. Also, don’t look now, but the Hawkeyes are averaging 32 points per game. The key for Iowa has been star RB Kaleb Johnson, who has at least 119 yards in every game and 3 games straight with 170+ rushing yards (including the loss to Iowa State). Iowa’s shocking problem is explosive pass plays with Iowa tied for 3rd-worst in the B1G in allowing pass plays of 30+ yards (5) and is last in pass plays of 50+ yards (3). Chip Kelly will find the extra holes in Phil Parker’s defense this time around.
RELATED: Ohio State is still the favorite in the Big Ten Championship odds as we hit a crucial October stretch. Take advantage of our curated list of the best OH sports betting apps to follow the lines and odds all season long.
Rutgers at Nebraska (-7)
- PICK: Rutgers +7
I’ve had this game circled as an intriguing matchup ever since it was expected Dylan Raiola would earn the starting QB job for Nebraska. The turnover battle probably determines this winner, but it’s interesting to me that Nebraska (+5 turnover margin) is slightly better than Rutgers (+3) at taking care of the ball. The other facet likely to have a major impact is special teams, which is normal for a game involving Greg Schiano and Nebraska’s problems kicking the football. I think the Huskers have a solid edge here, but it strikes me as one liable to wind up a one-possession game at the end.
Michigan at Washington (-3)
- PICK: Washington -3
It’s crazy to think that Washington outplayed Washington State and Rutgers in the Huskies’ 2 losses this season, but there’s some truth to that. It’s also true Michigan has been playing with fire with close wins over USC and Minnesota. This week screams “something’s got to give” for both teams, especially with the Wolverines consistently throwing for less than 100 yards when Alex Orji starts at QB. Look for travel to play a factor, and I think the -3 line for the home team is actually spot on for this, in spite of the respective records.
USC (-8.5) at Minnesota
- PICK: USC -8.5
Minnesota showed some unexpected fight at Michigan, rattling off 21 4th-quarter points to keep serious pressure on the Wolverines. A breakdown by Michigan’s special teams unit and an interception from Alex Orji aided the comeback attempt, but Minnesota’s first 3 quarters cannot be overlooked. In fact, that game getting close at the end ultimately boiled down to Michigan having an offense ineffective at keeping pressure on the defense. USC does not have that kind of problem after erasing 11-point deficits in back-to-back games. Even with this one coming on the road for the Trojans, I think Lincoln Riley’s group is poised for whatever PJ Fleck tries to throw at them.
Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.