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Week 7 in college football has come and gone — now it’s time to sort through the wreckage.
Several Top-25 matchups provided plenty of interesting results. As with Week 6, this story will break down some advanced stats and other insights that should be helpful for anyone interested in the college football betting markets. Last week, we covered Tennessee’s struggling offense, USC’s shaky defense and a lot more.
Here are 10 college football ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 7:
Buying: Penn State is a contender in the Big Ten
Penn State needed overtime (and a 4th-quarter comeback) to beat USC on Saturday, but there’s no shame in that. A win is a win on the road, especially given how Penn State got there. The Nittany Lions’ offense posted elite success rate and yards-per-play numbers against the Trojans. The defense wasn’t as good, but that can happen against a Lincoln Riley offense. Penn State looks like a clear contender in the Big Ten, along with Oregon and Ohio State. The Nittany Lions dodge the Ducks this year and get Ohio State at home. If Ohio State loses 1 more Big Ten game, that leaves the door wide open for Penn State to make the B1G title game. The Buckeyes still have Nebraska, Penn State, Indiana and Michigan on their schedule.
Actionable bet to consider: Penn State to make the Big Ten Championship Game (-110 on DraftKings)
Selling: Illinois is a top-25 team
Illinois scraped by Purdue 50-49 in overtime on Saturday afternoon, retaining its top-25 status in the process. On record alone, Illinois probably deserves to keep its spot in the rankings. But more and more each week, the Fighting Illini are proving they don’t belong despite being 5-1. Illinois had just a 23% postgame win expectancy against the Boilermakers, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly. That was the lowest percentage for a winning team in the country during Week 7.
Illinois has been benefitting from some luck all season. The same formula shows just 3.5 expected wins for Illinois — 1.5 below the Illini’s actual total. That makes Illinois the 3rd-luckiest team in the country so far this season by that metric, behind only Arkansas State (+2.4 wins) and Texas Tech (+1.6 wins). Illinois ranks 68th nationally in Game On Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play stat, 57th in FPI and 47th in SP+. I don’t think Illinois can live like this for much longer.
Buying: Cam Ward is a Heisman sleeper
My colleague Derek Peterson wrote on Sunday that there’s a lot of value on Cam Ward in the Heisman betting markets — and I agree with him. Ward slipped to as high as +900 at BetMGM during Miami’s bye week. I’m as amazed by Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty as anyone else, but I do not believe a Group-of-5 running back is going to hold on for 2+ months to win this award. Admittedly, Jeanty went off vs. Oregon, too, rushing for 192 yards and 3 TDs, including a 70-yard TD. He is for real. But it strikes me as incredibly unlikely, even if Jeanty is able to break Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record in November.
That leaves Ward and Gabriel as the most likely contenders in my mind, and I already gave out Gabriel +850 earlier this season. Ward leads the nation in touchdown passes with 20 and is 3rd in passer efficiency rating. He should have plenty more opportunities to pad his stats during the regular season and then could have a top-10 showdown with Clemson in the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte. That’s a great recipe for earning Heisman Trophy votes.
Actionable bet to consider: Cam Ward to win the Heisman Trophy (+900 via BetMGM)
Selling: Texas is clearly the best team in the SEC
Texas certainly look care of business against Oklahoma this past weekend, winning 34-3 in Dallas. But similar to what happened when Texas played Michigan in Week 2, the Longhorns sure did benefit from a whole lot of turnover luck. Texas recovered 3 crucial fumbles in the first half — 2 from Oklahoma, 1 from itself — which made things look a little worse than they were before halftime.
Let’s be clear about something: They could have kept playing that game until Sunday morning and I’m not sure OU would have ever scored an offensive touchdown — Texas deserved its dominant win. But UT has played 2 half-decent teams so far this season and has blown them both out, largely on the back of some strong first-half turnover luck. I’m a little weary of what will happen if that luck ever dries up in the wrong spot. Texas hosts a Georgia team that people seem to be down on this weekend — I like the Dawgs at current market value.
Actionable bet to consider: Georgia +3.5 (-110 via bet365)
Buying: Army could make the Playoff
Army and Navy are ranked in the AP Top 25 this week for the first time since 1960. I think both programs are G5-caliber Playoff contenders this season, but Army does have a little bit easier path. Both teams have to play Notre Dame, so that’s close to a wash. After that, Army will likely be a big favorite over everyone else it plays in the regular season. Navy, though, has to face Tulane — the current betting favorite to win the AAC.
If Army runs the table — or even goes 12-1 with a loss to Notre Dame — it should have a great chance of making the CFP. As it stands, ESPN’s FPI gives the Black Knights a 24.6% chance to make the Playoff. Compare that to Army’s odds to make the CFP, and this looks like a no-brainer. Army is also up to No. 5 nationally in Game On Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric, so the advanced numbers are backing up what the eye test shows every Saturday: this team is extremely formidable.
Actionable bet to consider: Army to make the College Football Playoff (+2000 via FanDuel)
Selling: Clemson is unstoppable
Clemson has been on an absolute heater since losing to Georgia in Week 1. The Tigers have won their 5 ensuing games by a combined score of 243-96 (and 28 of those 96 points came against backups in the 4th quarter of games that were already over). That’s an absurd level of dominance, especially on the offensive side of the ball. But here’s the thing: Clemson hasn’t played anyone yet.
The Tigers have arguably faced the 4 worst teams in the ACC to start conference play: Stanford, Wake Forest, NC State and Florida State. Those 4 teams are a combined 3-11 in ACC play entering Week 8 (and 1 of those wins came in a head-to-head matchup between NC State and Wake). I think there are plenty of tougher tests coming on this schedule, starting with Virginia this weekend. I think Clemson still ultimately makes the ACC Championship Game, but not without sustaining another loss along the way.
Actionable bet to consider: Clemson under 10.5 wins (-106 on FanDuel)
Buying: DJ Lagway changes Florida’s offense for the better
Florida quarterback Graham Mertz reportedly suffered a season-ending knee injury Saturday in the loss to Tennessee. That’s tremendously sad news for Mertz — he was arguably having the best season of his career before going down. If there’s a silver lining for Florida, it’s that freshman DJ Lagway can add a little bit of upside to this offense. Lagway has already played a decent number of snaps this season, including in a comeback effort against the Vols.
Per PFF, Lagway’s average depth of target is 10.6 — 3 full yards ahead of Mertz’s. The knock on Lagway so far this season has been his 4 interceptions, but he’s only made 1 turnover-worthy play, according to PFF. That suggests he’s been pretty unlucky in the turnover department. His 7.5% big-time throw rate is also well above what Mertz provided in 2024. Florida needs to beat at least 1 ranked team in order to make a bowl game, and I think Lagway gives the Gators the best chance to pull off a significant upset against a team like LSU or Ole Miss.
Selling: LSU has the inside track to the Playoff
LSU has won 5 in a row since its loss to USC to open the year, including a Top-25 victory over Ole Miss on Saturday. However, I’m not sure this LSU team is going to be able to survive the scrutiny that an SEC schedule will provide over the second half of the season. LSU ranks just 43rd nationally in Game On Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric after 7 games.
It has issues on both sides of the ball. The Tigers’ defense has been inconsistent at best this season (albeit a noticeable improvement from 2023) and they’ve shown essentially no ability to run the ball with any sort of regular threat. LSU ranks 100th in rushing success rate, per Game On Paper. Even FPI gives LSU just a 26.4% chance to make the Playoff — in-part due to its remaining schedule. LSU still has to face Texas A&M, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Florida and Oklahoma. There are no unbeatable teams on that schedule, but I don’t see any games LSU can sleepwalk through, either.
Actionable bet to consider: LSU to miss the College Football Playoff (-150 via DraftKings)
Buying: Mississippi State has its QB
It’s been a tough Year 1 for Jeff Lebby in Starkville, and things might get worse before they get better. However, there is some reason for optimism at the quarterback position going forward. Freshman Michael Van Buren has been excellent since stepping into the starting role and had his best game yet over the weekend in a 41-31 loss to Georgia.
I don’t want to go overboard in praising Van Buren — UGA was in a pretty big lookahead spot with Texas on deck, after all — but his numbers give you plenty to be excited about. State averaged 8.27 yards per drop back and had a 13% explosive play rate against UGA, per Game On Paper. Almost all of that work was done in the passing game. It’s been bleak at times this season, but the future is starting to look brighter.
Buying: NC State can turn things around
NC State suffered yet another loss this weekend, this time dropping a close game against Syracuse. Dave Doeren asked for patience from the NC State faithful in his postgame press conference … and I’m inclined to give it to him. The Wolfpack have a very young team that showed some legitimate progress in their loss to the Orange this weekend. NC State only put up 17 points, but had an EPA-per-play in the 80th percentile, per Game On Paper. Virtually all of NC State’s advanced metrics were excellent this week apart from its EPA-per-rush, which was likely low due to losing 2 fumbles. NC State has a very soft schedule the rest of the way and could even conceivably make a bowl game despite being 0-3 in ACC play. I’m comfortable with buying the Wolfpack as early as this weekend vs. Cal.
Actionable bet to consider: NC State +10.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Spenser is the news manager at Saturday Road and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.