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Week 12 Big Ten picks against the spread are here as we get set for the final stretch of the season! And, unfortunately, we are coming off my worst clunker of the conference slate, putting my record in serious jeopardy of staying below the .500 mark for the season.
I especially struggled with double-digit spreads last week. My picks were 1-3 in spreads of 13.5+ points, and it’s clear I severely underestimated just how dreadful Purdue is on the field (and how focused Ohio State is at this portion of the season).
Minnesota also crashed back down to Earth with one of its worst performances of the season, including an especially horrific late-game stretch against Rutgers. Michigan also impressed with a second-half push against Indiana, but the Wolverines’ offense could not do enough to stop Curt Cignetti’s group.
As for our trend of tracking teams against the travel component, the home teams in 2+ time zone games went 3-0 outright and 2-1 ATS in Week 11. The only loss ATS was Oregon, which still beat Maryland by 21.
Overall, home teams in 2+ time zone games are 17-7 outright and 15-9 ATS. That’s just shy of a 71% winning percentage for home teams vs. teams up against the travel component in the new B1G.
There will be fewer of these matchups as we close in on the final stretch of the season, but there are 2 such matchups on the docket in Week 12. So, let’s get on with the picks!
All lines are featured via bet365.
Hammer’s Week 10 results: 1-5 ATS (Season record: 48-51)
UCLA at Washington (-4)
- PICK: Washington -4
UCLA continues to play better while Washington has been up-and-down more than your favorite roller coaster. However, the Huskies’ trend has mainly followed their travel schedule with Jedd Fisch 5-1 at home and winless on the road. The Bruins have made their living defensively with the 3rd-best run defense in the B1G at 98.11 yards per game, but it’s a much different story through the air –2nd-to-last while allowing 252.8 yards per game. Will Rogers was benched last week, but look for him to bounce back and shine at home.
Ohio State (-28.5) at Northwestern
- PICK: Ohio State -28.5
I have concerns with this game. Not with the prospects of Ohio State losing, but because this game is played at Wrigley Field. If I’m Ohio State, my focus is getting out of the cramped confines healthy. But I’m still going with Ohio State and the big number because I don’t know if Northwestern can move the ball, much less score, against the Buckeyes.
RELATED: Ohio State is gearing up for a push to the CFP, be sure to track all the odds for the Buckeyes via Tradition’s Ohio sports betting apps.
Michigan State at Illinois (-3)
- PICK: Illinois -3
Illinois is coming off a bye week following back-to-back losses, but this feels like a big bounce-back for Bret Bielema even if QB Aidan Chiles does play for the Spartans. The Illini are still 5th in the B1G with a +5 turnover margin while Michigan State is on the opposite end of the spectrum and dead last with a -9 differential. Sometimes the final pick is that simple.
RELATED: Can the Spartans find 2 wins in their final 3 games to get back to a bowl game? Use Tradition’s best Michigan online sports betting apps and codes to track everything MSU.
Penn State (-28.5) at Purdue
- PICK: Penn State -28.5
I’d love to hear Purdue’s rationale for keeping Ryan Walters if the Boilermakers do indeed run it back in 2025. Purdue has yet to score a point against the other top-10 teams from the B1G, and I don’t believe that changes this week unless Penn State just dials it way back early on.
Nebraska at USC (-9)
- PICK: Nebraska +9
Who to roll with: The team making a QB change or the team changing an offensive coordinator? USC has been much better at home than on the road this season, but there’s no guarantee Jayden Maiava is a real upgrade to Miller Moss. It’s likely he provides a bit of a spark, but I am also expecting a few wrinkles out of new OC Dana Holgorsen to give Nebraska a few key drives. Even if the Trojans win outright, I don’t think it’s going to become a blowout against a Nebraska defense coming off a bye.
Rutgers at Maryland (-6)
- PICK: Rutgers +6
Maryland has 1 conference victory, and it came against a USC team traveling coast-to-coast. It’s a much shorter trek for Rutgers, and I think the Scarlet Knights force a few key turnovers.
RELATED: Fans of the Terps can find their best action via Tradition’s Maryland sports betting apps.
Oregon (-14) at Wisconsin
- PICK: Oregon -14
Wisconsin has looked overmatched in just about every game against upper-tier teams. No. 1 Oregon is currently the best of that group, and the Ducks do not traditionally have back-to-back letdowns under Dan Lanning. After a rockier-than-expected performance against Maryland, look for Oregon to roll out and drop a first-half hammer in Madison. Camp Randall Stadium could be very quiet by the time “Jump Around” gets played.
Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.