Penn State football: Will Nittany Lions return to CFP in 2025?

Penn State is gearing up for its 12th season of the James Franklin era in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions are also coming off their best season of his tenure.

That performance included a trip to the College Football Playoff, where Penn State would win 2 games and advance to the semifinals before an Orange Bowl loss to Notre Dame. Unfortunately, all the talk coming out of that loss continues to revolve around the inability to win big games for both the head coach and the star quarterback.

The good news? Penn State returns some significant production on both sides of the ball, and the coaching staff received a major boost with a prominent defensive coordinator hiring.

In terms of their odds to reach the Playoff, Penn State is listed at -235 via BetMGM. Those are among the best odds in the country, and it paints an optimistic view for the season ahead.

Let’s dive into the outlook for those odds through Penn State’s returning production and the 2025 schedule:

Penn State roster and returning production

Penn State has some of the major roster continuity you should look for in a true College Football Playoff contender. That’s especially true on the offensive side of the ball.

Drew Allar returns under center for his 3rd year as the starting quarterback, a veteran with 29 career starts entering 2025. After taking a substantial leap forward from 2023 to 2024, Allar will look to make another big jump if the Nittany Lions want to make a deep Playoff push again.

In the backfield, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen bypassed the NFL Draft for another season at Penn State. The running back duo amassed over 2,200 rushing yards last season and have combined for over 6,900 yards from scrimmage in their 3 seasons together.

The continuity on the offensive side of the ball also includes OC Andy Kotelnicki. His work in developing Allar cannot be overlooked, and he was mostly fantastic in devising unique looks and getting the most out of the pieces available.

The big departures offensively involve losing do-it-all tight end Tyler Warren to the NFL and wide receivers Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans to the transfer portal. That trio served as Penn State’s leading receivers last season, and the departures of Wallace and Evans further expose the issues in the WR room in terms of experience and lack of production.

Defensively, there is more production to replace with the Nittany Lions losing All-American pass rusher Abdul Carter, star LB Kobe King and star safety Kevin Winston Jr. to the NFL Draft. On the bright side, Penn State does return Dani Dennis-Sutton, Zane Durant, Tony Rojas and Zakee Wheatley to the fold, giving the program potential difference-makers at every level of the unit.

Penn State will be on its 3rd DC in 3 seasons this fall, though that fact does not contain the concerns that might usually be present. That’s because the Nittany Lions were able to poach longtime DC Jim Knowles away from Ohio State this offseason.

Altogether, Penn State ranks 33rd nationally in the returning production ratings produced by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The offense is especially strong in returning production at 14th nationally.

Penn State’s 2025 schedule

One of the best moves Penn State has made came in the re-shuffling of the new-look Big Ten. Without divisions in place, the Nittany Lions were able to avoid facing Michigan and Ohio State on an annual basis, and they will avoid Michigan on the schedule this year.

In terms of nonconference play, Penn State gets 3 lower-quality opponents — all at Beaver Stadium — in the form of Nevada, FIU and FCS-level Villanova. Simply put, a loss in any of those games will mark a disaster for the program.

Penn State will kickstart league play in style, hosting Oregon for a primetime battle on Sept. 27. The Ducks have not been to State College since the 1960s, and it will be the White Out in full force.

Should Penn State win that game, the Nittany Lions will feel in the driver’s seat for a return trip to the Playoff. The trip to the West Coast this year is against UCLA, and the only game they are likely to be an underdog for is a Nov. 1 trip to Columbus to face Ohio State.

Considering the track record of Franklin in non-underdog games, it is hard to envision the Nittany Lions finishing worse than 10-2 this year. This is also likely his best team to pull off a marquee win against Ohio State or Oregon due to the veteran-rich nature of the roster.

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Will Penn State reach the Playoff in 2025?

On paper, Penn State should be among the most experienced and capable teams in the country. The schedule also looks like a manageable one.

At that point, the only concern comes with the big-game performances that Franklin and his program have faced on a regular basis.

Even during last year’s Playoff run, Penn State began the journey against an SMU team that was No. 12 in the AP Poll at that time. The Fiesta Bowl win against Boise State does go down as a top-10 win for the Nittany Lions (the Broncos were No. 8 in the AP Poll), but that’s the best win for the program in quite some time.

However, the optics of last year look much different when you factor in top-5 opponents. Penn State faced 3 top-5 opponents last season, losing every game, including the loss to Notre Dame and the home loss to Ohio State in November.

Not only is Franklin prone to losing big games, but the performances of Allar in those games bear monitoring. He threw for less than 150 yards with a pick against the Buckeyes, and he completed only 52% of his passes with the fateful interception against Notre Dame.

Allar’s best big game came in the B1G Championship vs. Oregon, when he threw for 226 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, he still managed to complete just 51% of his passes and threw 2 interceptions against the Ducks.

No matter how you slice it, Allar and Franklin will have to cure some big-game demons to get over the hump and win a national title. But that’s all about winning the national championship.

In terms of getting back to the Playoff, it should be a doable task for the program. ESPN’s Football Power Index agrees, giving Penn State a 63.8% chance of reaching the final field. That percentage is the 2nd-best in the B1G, trailing only defending national champ Ohio State, and it’s the 5th-best percentage in the entire country.

If the Nittany Lions fall short this year, Franklin will have some serious explaining to do with many labeling this as the head coach’s best team during his time with the program.

Pick: Penn State to make the College Football Playoff (-235 via BetMGM)