Oregon football: Will Ducks return to College Football Playoff in 2025?

Oregon is coming off an impressive 2024 regular season, complete with a 13-0 record and Big Ten title while grabbing the No. 1 overall seed in the 12-team College Football Playoff. Unfortunately, things quickly soured in the postseason.

At the Rose Bowl, Dan Lanning and the Ducks were pummeled by Ohio State as the Buckeyes found their form and rolled to the national title at the end of the season. It leaves Oregon looking to reload multiple key pieces on the roster and finding itself with a feeling of “unfinished business” for 2025.

The good news is that Oregon comes in at -275 to reach the Playoff, according to BetMGM. Those odds have the Ducks among the favorites to reach the field of 12, so the outlook is a positive one in Eugene.

With those numbers in mind, let’s dive into the analysis of Oregon’s returning production and the 2025 schedule that will shape the race to the Playoff:

Oregon roster and returning production

Oregon is looking to replace a lot of production from the 2024 team that went 13-0 in the regular season with a B1G title. The returning production rankings produced by ESPN’s Bill Connelly have the Ducks at 109th nationally, with 43% of production back in Eugene. That mark trails defending national champion Ohio State, which came in at 101st nationally with 46% of production back.

Star quarterback Dillon Gabriel, the 3rd-place finisher for the Heisman Trophy, is gone after his historic career in college football. Lanning has thrived across his first 3 seasons in large part because of veteran QBs leading the program, but that will have to change this fall.

The good news is that Dante Moore is not the average new starter. The former 5-star prospect from the 2023 recruiting class started 5 games as a true freshman at UCLA. And even with the mixed results that year, Moore had a full year to learn the system while backing up Gabriel in 2024.

Beyond the QB, Oregon also lost its leading rusher in Jordan James and 3 of the top 4 receivers from last season, headlined by Tez Johnson. A pair of offensive linemen were also selected in the NFL Draft, including first-round pick Josh Conerly Jr.

Defensively, the Ducks experienced similar losses. A trio of defensive linemen were selected in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft, and linebacker Jeffrey Bassa was selected in the 5th round.

The good news is that Oregon hit the transfer portal hard in the offseason, landing the No. 5 transfer class in the country, according to 247Sports. That rating gives the Ducks the top-rated transfer class in the B1G. That group was particularly balanced with key pickups in the trenches for both units and playmakers on the offensive side of the ball.

When it comes to the coaching staff, Lanning’s program will benefit from getting both OC Will Stein and DC Tosh Lupoi back in the fold. Lupoi has been with Lanning since his first season at Oregon in 2022, and Stein replaced Kenny Dillingham for the 2023 season after Dillingham left to be the head coach at Arizona State.

Oregon’s 2025 schedule

Oregon gets a fairly manageable schedule as one of the B1G’s West Coast programs. The nonconference schedule does include matchups against Oklahoma State and Oregon State, but those teams combined to go 8-16 last year. Both of those matchups also come inside Autzen Stadium.

When the B1G schedule kicks off, the toughest part for the Ducks will be 4 road trips to the east. The good news is that 2 of those matchups should feature Oregon as heavy favorites against Northwestern and Rutgers. The other 2 — at Iowa and at Penn State — feature tougher opponents.

While Oregon does draw the Nittany Lions on the road in a White Out environment, the Ducks will not face Ohio State or Michigan in the regular season. Indiana, winner of 11 games last season, is a home matchup for Oregon, but the Hoosiers lost their 2 games against top-10 opponents by a combined total of 33 points.

In terms of West Coast games, Oregon ends the season with games at home vs. USC (Nov. 22) and at Washington (Nov. 29). In terms of back-to-back games, it’s possible that will be the toughest 2-game stretch the Ducks face all season long.

That doesn’t mean the schedule is an easy one, especially with the amount of travel involved, but it should allow for Oregon to hit its stride in October and November. An early win over Penn State could also put the Ducks in the driver’s seat for a return trip to Indy to play for another B1G title.

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Will Oregon reach the Playoff in 2025?

Even with the turnover on the roster, Oregon maintains some of the best odds to reach the Playoff, particularly in ESPN’s Football Power Index. According to that model, the Ducks have a 57.5% chance to reach the final CFP field, and that is the 3rd-best percentage in the entire B1G.

On a national level, that is the 6th-best chance to reach the Playoff. Of the 5 teams ahead of the Ducks, 4 reached the Playoff last season, and 3 of them (Ohio State, Penn State and Texas) were in the semifinals a year ago.

When it comes down to head coaching matchups, the Ducks will also feel in a great spot with Lanning at the helm in the big games this fall. Oregon is 4-4 in top 10 games and 2-2 in top 5 games since Lanning took over the program, so the same struggles Penn State has faced under James Franklin should not be a factor.

This time around, Oregon is unlikely to head into the postseason as the No. 1 seed in the country, but it is hard to envision the bracket not having the Ducks at all. After that, Lanning and company will simply hope for a better path in the Playoff than the one faced last season.

PICK: Oregon to make the Playoff (-275 via BetMGM)