Michigan football: Will Wolverines reach College Football Playoff in 2025?

Michigan is gearing up for the 2025 season and what will be the 2nd year for Sherrone Moore at the controls of the program. The longtime assistant under Jim Harbaugh bided his time and was eventually the coach-in-waiting when Harbaugh returned to the NFL.

By most measures, Michigan underperformed in Moore’s first season with the program, finishing with an 8-5 overall record. However, a rivalry win over Michigan State, the legendary upset of Ohio State in Columbus and a bowl win over Alabama provided more than enough positive moments for a program and fanbase still basking in the glow of a national title.

Now, the page truly turns to the future, and it’s important that Moore begins to show he and his staff are capable of building back to College Football Playoff contention. Recruiting in Ann Arbor is off the charts after an elite finish in 2025, and it’s time to begin putting more positive results on the field.

So, what does that mean for the fall? Let’s dive into the returning production and the schedule for the Wolverines to examine whether or not a return to the CFP is in the cards.

Michigan roster and returning production

Despite some key NFL departures, the Wolverines actually fare well in the returning production ratings produced by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Michigan ranks 29th in the entire country for returning production at 64%.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t key holes the Wolverines will have to account for, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Stalwart defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant are gone, and so is elite cornerback Will Johnson. Edge rusher Josaiah Stewart, the team’s top pass rusher last season, is also gone.

Fortunately, the Wolverines will return some strength at each level of the defense. Up front, edges TJ Guy and Derrick Moore should provide strength in the pass rush, and Rayshaun Benny returns on the interior. Michigan also headed to the transfer portal for some interior help, adding Damon Payne (Alabama) and Tre Williams (Clemson) to the fold.

In the secondary, veteran safety Rod Moore returns after missing 2024 due to injury. After being voted a captain last season, Moore should serve well in a leadership role. The Wolverines also get back contributing players Jyaire Hill, Ja’Den McBurrows, Zeke Berry and Mason Curtis to the fold.

Further good news for the defense is that Ernest Hausmann and Jaishawn Barham, the top 2 tacklers a season ago, return to the linebacker room. Jimmy Rolder and Jaydon Hood also return to provide much-needed depth to the unit.

Offensively, Michigan has to replace starting running back Kalel Mullings and break in a new starting quarterback, but those areas pale in comparison to the loss of star tight end Colston Loveland. The big TE was by far Michigan’s most productive weapon in the receiving game, and the Wolverines will need someone to step up in that area.

At the TE position, the trio of Marlin Klein, Hogan Hansen and Brady Prieskorn is a strong group of prospects that could produce a breakout season. At wide receiver, the Wolverines will need someone to step up from the pre-existing returners, along with the arrival of former Indiana wideout Donaven McCulley via the portal.

At running back, Michigan added a couple of veteran pieces in the portal in the form of Justice Haynes (Alabama) and CJ Hester (UMass). Those players should help offset the loss of Mullings, along with Jordan Marshall, who rushed for 100 yards in the bowl game.

Ultimately, the offense will rest on the shoulders and performance of true freshman QB Bryce Underwood. The good news is that he is already viewed as an upgrade from the QB room of 2024, but it’s hard to envision a 2025 without any growing pains for a true freshman QB playing Big Ten football.

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Michigan’s 2025 schedule

Michigan doesn’t get a major break on the schedule this season, including during the nonconference portion. A lot of that has to do with a trip to Oklahoma on Sept. 6. The Sooners were just 6-7 a year ago, but Brent Venables has loaded up by adding former Washington State QB John Mateer and a new OC in Ben Arbuckle.

The other 2 games outside of the B1G consist of New Mexico and Central Michigan and should not pose much of a threat. The only wrinkle there is that Moore will be serving the first of a 2-game suspension for the matchup vs. CMU.

In the B1G schedule, a lot of the tricky matchups come in the first half of the league slate. Michigan must travel to face Nebraska on Sept. 20, without Moore, and that kind of showdown is far from a given, especially with a true freshman QB likely to start in Bryce Underwood.

As for the West Coast, Michigan must travel to face USC, and that matchup will be nothing to sneeze at. Fans will remember the Trojans pushed the Wolverines to the brink this past season in Ann Arbor, if not for a dramatic game-winning drive behind Kalel Mullings.

Of course, the regular season ends with The Game against Ohio State. That matchup is never easy, but the Wolverines have the confidence of a 4-game winning streak, including a historic upset this past season, so Michigan will not be intimidated entering any game. This year’s matchup also comes inside the Big House.

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Will Michigan reach the Playoff in 2025?

Entering the season, Michigan is undeniably a long shot to reach the Playoff. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Wolverines have just a 25.3% of reaching the Playoff.

While that number is the 4th-best in the entire B1G, it speaks to the nature of some major unknowns on Michigan’s roster and the handful of tough games on the schedule. That doesn’t mean it is impossible, but it will take some upsets to make it happen.

The hard truth is that even to pull off those upsets, Michigan will need Underwood to go out and win the program a marquee game or two with his arm. Based on early results from the spring, that’s entirely possible. It’s also possible, and more than likely, the youth of Underwood costs the Wolverines a game or two.

Michigan’s projected win total by the FPI is 8.4-3.7, so it’s not hard to envision the Wolverines getting to 9 wins — or better — in the fall. But even with that, there are just too many variables to pick Michigan to reach the CFP if it boils down to an at-large bid.

PICK: Michigan to miss College Football Playoff (-275 via BetMGM)