Illinois football: Will Illini make College Football Playoff in 2025?

Illinois is primed and ready for the 2025 season after one of the best years in program history.

Last season, Bret Bielema led his Illini to a 10-3 record and a key bowl win over SEC foe South Carolina. It was the first season with 10 wins for Illinois since 2001 and only the 5th such season in program history. It was also Bielema’s first season reaching 10+ wins as a head coach since 2011 at Wisconsin.

Now entering his 5th season in Champaign, Bielema has built the kind of tough-nosed program he wants. The 2025 team will also be bolstered by a large contingent of returning starters.

Already, certain analysts are pumping the Illini as a dark horse contender this season, so the odds of them sneaking up on anyone are unlikely. Will it lead to a College Football Playoff breakthrough for the program?

That’s the question we dive into through an in-depth look at the returning production and 2025 schedule for the program.

Illinois roster and returning production

When it comes to returning production, Illinois is among the best in the country. The Illini rank 3rd nationally with 76% of production returning, according to the numbers produced by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Only Clemson and Arizona State return more production, and that can be a key factor in success.

Returning production is not always a true measure of strength. After all, Kennesaw State returns 73% of its production this season, but that doesn’t mean much for a program coming off a 2-10 season. However, the Illini went 10-3 a season ago, so getting a major group of returners bodes well for the year ahead.

Starting quarterback Luke Altmyer is the major key there. He delivered a significant jump from 2023 to 2024, improving his efficiency and cutting down mistakes.

If Altmyer can take even another marginal step forward, or simply continue to limit his mistakes, the offense will be in a great spot. Illinois also returns OC Barry Lunney Jr., so there’s no issue with continuity of the system for Altmyer.

Losing Josh McCray from the backfield hurts, but Aidan Laughery and Kaden Feagin should be poised for anchoring roles in the backfield with young pieces behind them. Outside of McCray, the most significant offensive departures involved the losses of wide receivers Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin to the NFL.

Even with the Illini looking to replace some receiving production, the fact that Altmyer returns in the same system, with his offensive line intact, should give the program plenty to work with on that side of the ball.

Defensively, plenty of key components return, including leading tackler Matthew Bailey and top pass rusher Gabe Jacas. Miles Scott, Xavier Scott, Tyler Strain, Alec Bryant, Dylan Rosiek and James Kreutz also come back for more action.

The key area the defense needed reinforcements came on the defensive front, and Bielema’s staff worked hard in landing 5 defensive linemen and an edge prospect in the portal. Wisconsin provided particular dividends with 3 former Badgers joining the program, including Curt Neal on the interior.

Finding the right rotation up front will be key for the defensive unit, but Aaron Henry is back at DC with plenty of key pieces who know the system. That unit should be able to make enough plays to keep Illinois in games all season long.

Illinois’s 2025 schedule

If Illinois wants a Playoff spot, we’ll have a better understanding if the Illini are serious by the end of September. The nonconference slate includes games against Western Illinois and Western Michigan that should be wins, but a road trip to face Duke in Week 2 could trip them up.

Manny Diaz led the Blue Devils to a 9-4 record in his first season with the program, and a hot topic during the offseason has been Duke’s landing of star QB transfer Darian Mensah. No matter how you slice it, this should be a stiff road test for Illinois.

The other games before the end of September include at Indiana and home vs. USC. It’s tough to get a clear bead on both programs, with the Hoosiers coming off an improbable CFP trip last year and the Trojans still trying to find some consistency under Lincoln Riley.

If Fernando Mendoza is a bona fide star for Curt Cignetti, Indiana will be tough once again. If USC figures out the offense with Jayden Maiava, it could be the Trojans looking to wreck some plans this fall. Both are winnable games, but Illinois is likely to play more close games this fall, and the Illini will need to come up with the clutch plays to keep piling up the wins.

After September, the schedule has more balance to it. A road trip to Purdue starts October, before Illinois gets Ohio State at home and has to face Washington in Seattle. By most accounts, those 2 games will be the toughest the rest of the way.

The goal for Illinois should be to get to November with 1 or 2 losses. If that happens, watch out, because the final 4 games provide a great runway to end the year.

November features 3 home games vs. Rutgers, Maryland and Northwestern. The only road game is at Wisconsin, but the Badgers are still searching for some semblance of an identity under Luke Fickell. The combined 2024 record from those final 4 opponents was 20-29, so it should be a good way for the Illini to end the year.

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Will Illinois reach the Playoff in 2025?

Despite the amount of production returning and a favorable schedule, ESPN’s Football Power Index is definitely not on the Champaign bandwagon entering the season. The FPI gives Illinois just a 3.8% chance of reaching the Playoff this year, a mark that is worse than Indiana, Washington and Minnesota within the B1G.

What makes that projection even more confusing is the fact that the FPI agrees with Illinois having a manageable schedule. The strength of schedule per the FPI is 44th nationally, a rank that is the 2nd easiest in the B1G.

That kind of returning production from a successful team and a manageable schedule would traditionally lend itself to a better outlook for the season ahead. The issue here likely resides with the number of one-possession games won by Illinois a season ago.

The Illini played a total of 5 games decided by 8 points or less last season, but managed to go 4-1 in those games. While that is impressive in itself, it will require the same level of clutch plays — and good fortune — to post that kind of record in one-score games again.

My final pick ultimately comes down to the fact that I think Illinois has the pieces to avoid some of those close games it encountered from a year ago. And in the event that they do get close calls, a veteran offensive line protecting a 3rd-year starter at QB should provide plenty of clutch firepower.

The major caveat would be an injury bug on the offensive side of the ball, but I think this is a year of something special for Bielema.

PICK: Illinois to reach the Playoff (+500 via BetMGM)